Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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048 FXUS64 KMAF 112331 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 After a busy day yesterday, things are a bit quieter this afternoon. Visible satellite shows a low cu deck moving into the Permian Basin and parts of Lea County, but should scatter out in the next few hours. There remains an abundance of low-level moisture across the eastern Permian Basin where PW values exceed an inch, and residual boundaries from last nights storms will initiate some additional storms this afternoon. Better shear and instability is displaced to the east and southeast today, and thus the severe weather threat looks marginal at best for us this afternoon. Still, any storms developing off the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will be able to quickly become severe, with hail, lightning, and strong winds all a threat. As storms move out tonight, surface winds shift more southeasterly in response to lee troughing to the north, and strong upper level ridging builds in across the west. This will result in a cloudy morning on Wednesday before temperatures warm to the 90s/low 100s Wednesday afternoon. Despite ridging typically meaning dry weather, a few storms will be possible in the afternoon hours across the higher terrain, namely, the Davis and Sacramento Mountains. No severe weather expected Wednesday at this point. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The long term forecast calls for seasonably hot and dry conditions across the entire area. Later this week an upper high to our west breaks down due to an upper level low off the California coast moving inland. Current models show the high being stronger than yesterday`s runs and pushing the low farther north before weakening. A more northerly track of the low decreases rain chances for our western counties and it now appears Friday may be the only chance for rain from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. Temperatures bounce around a little over the weekend and into early next week though the general trend will be for warmer temperatures aloft to be offset with modified gulf air at the surface from the southeast. Run to run consistency on all the medium range models isn`t the best so the NBM ensemble guidance is the best forecast bet for now which is highs in the upper 90s in the Permian Basin and mountains, with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees in the lower elevations of the Big Bend and the Pecos River valley. Hennig && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR continues with east winds generally under 10 kts. There is a low (20%) chance of MVFR cigs at KMAF around sunrise, but will not include in TAFs until we have more confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 93 71 99 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 99 73 104 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 73 97 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 98 73 102 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 67 93 71 97 / 10 10 0 10 Hobbs 64 94 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 96 62 98 / 10 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 68 94 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 69 94 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 71 99 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...29