Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1210 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Rest of Today: At 18Z, scattered showers persisted in northwest
Kansas and northeast Colorado, on the N/NW periphery of an upper
level low centered invof the central KS/CO border. Expect showers
to decrease in coverage through mid-afternoon as the upper level
low progresses southeast toward Liberal and Woodward. With an
atypically moist airmass in place, any decrease in cloud cover
/increase in insolation/ could aid in the development of isolated
showers late this afternoon. The window for such activity will be
relatively small, however, as subsidence /mid-level warming/ in
the wake of the upper level low will overwhelmingly suppress
development around or shortly after 00Z.

Tonight: With a moist airmass already in place, a clearing trend
this evening, and variable or calm winds /no advection/, fog
is likely to develop over the Tri-State area tonight. Widespread
dense fog is a distinct possibility. Freezing fog would most
likely be confined to elevations 4000+ ft (essentially along/west
of the CO/KS border) where moisture profiles are shallow and
radiational cooling stronger.

Sunday: Fog and stratus would typically lift/scatter within
a few hours after sunrise this time of year, however, given weak
low-level flow /lethargic mixing/, dissipation may not occur
until late morning. Shortwave ridging aloft in the wake of the
upper low suggests sunny or mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

At the start of the extended period the region will be under the
influence of an upper level low, and its associated cold front,
coming off the northern Rockies and into the High Plains. This
system will produce areas of rainshowers across our local area. A
brief period of upper level ridging will influence the region on
Wednesday with dry conditions.  On Thursday, the models are showing
a system that is similar to the system that is anticipated to move
through the region on Tuesday.  This second system will also produce
areas of rainshowers.

For the rest of the extended, high pressure looks to build over the
western U.S. and influence the area with dry conditions and highs
reaching the lower 70s by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Showers will gradually dissipate and IFR-MVFR conditions will
gradually improve to VFR late this afternoon and early this
evening as an upper level low (centered invof the central KS/CO
border at 17Z) tracks southeast into OK. VFR conditions may be
short-lived, however, with areas of dense fog and/or low ceilings
likely to develop over the Tri-State area between 03-09Z Sunday.
Fog and/or low ceilings will quickly lift/scatter to VFR a few
hours after sunrise Sunday morning (13-15Z Sun). Light E/NE winds
will prevail this afternoon. Winds will become variable or calm
overnight and remain light during the day Sunday.




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