Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 142005
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
205 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will bring seasonably warm weather along with
a few showers and thunderstorms across southern New Mexico and
west Texas tonight and again on Friday. Abundant moisture
associated with a dissipating tropical storm will flow into the
region while a surface low and upper disturbance pass through
the area. This weather pattern will bring widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday with areas
of heavy rain and flash flooding possible. Seasonably warm mostly
dry weather is expected Sunday and Monday but a few showers and
thunderstorms are expected later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad upper ridge axis extended across southern New Mexico and
west Texas early this afternoon with attendant subsidence and warm
stable air aloft covering the region. Low level southeast winds
are meanwhile sustaining transport of low level moisture which
when combined with strong surface heating is making air mass
weakly unstable. This will allow a few showers and thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon and this evening and again on Friday
afternoon with most activity around mountain areas where upslope
flow will provide better lift.

Very active and potentially hazardous pattern will subsequently
ensue beginning Friday night. Upper high will have reformed over
eastern Texas by tomorrow afternoon while deep upper trough to
the west will become aligned on a north to south axis through the
Pacific Northwest as far south as Baja. Resultant circulation
will include a deep southerly flow component into the southern
Rockies with very abundant moisture transport. Consequently
surface dewpoints will rise above 50 F most areas while
precipitable water increases to well above normal at around 1.2 to
1.6 inches most locations by sunrise Saturday. The deep moisture
and attendant cloud cover will inhibit solar heating and keep
lapse rates moist adiabatic through a deep layer. Thus instability
will remain limited with CAPEs staying below 1000 J/kg most
locations. K indices will be quite elevated however with values
around 40 by Saturday morning.

Upper waves ejecting to the northeast ahead of primary trough
will enter the CWA beginning late Friday/early Saturday while
surface low and associated trough axis act as a low level
convergence mechanism. These features plus upslope winds will act
to provide upward forcing resulting in widespread heavy rains with
embedded thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday. 30 to 40 kt
flow around 700 mb will also provide significant moisture flux
further supporting heavy rain threat. As always models differ on
mesoscale features but at moment expect heaviest rains in the
western zones though all zones have the risk of experiencing
locally excessive precip with risk of flooding given the moisture
content.

Upper low will show little movement as it only enters northern
California by late Saturday. However stronger trough axis will
eject eastward across the CWA Saturday night with westerly flow
and drier air behind ending most of the rain threat by early
Sunday morning. As a result warmer mostly dry weather is expected
Sunday and Monday.

By Tuesday large surface thermal/heat low will induce low level
southeast winds across much of the CWA while upper low still covers
most of the United States west of the divide. This pattern will
pull moisture back into the region...especially over eastern
zones. Thus expect a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/00Z-16/00Z...
Generally VFR conds area wide. Isolated storms are possible today
especially northern CWA AND northern MTNS. mountains. The convective
activity from these storms may induce MVFR conditions. Main concerns
will be strong outflow winds and associated blowing dust. Winds
remain from the southeast between 5 to 10 kts, and after 3Z wind NE
TO SE 12G22KTS. General Sky SCT-BKN 050--8- 100-140 200-250. Winds
nr tstms VRB25g35KTS Vsby 3-6 miles. Aft 18Z Fri some resumption of
convective activity in the sacramento Mtns and nrn Gila Wilderness
with the main moisture plume push from remnants of BUD starting to
enter srn Hidalgo county arn 00Z/16.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low level moisture intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico will continue
to increase wetting rain chances over the area especially in the
mountain areas. Isolated to scattered storms will develop with the
main hazard being gusty winds and dry lightning. However, brief
periods of heavy rain over burn scar areas may lead to localized
flooding. Max temperatures will finally drop to near normal today
and tomorrow. This weekend the remnants of tropical storm Bud will
add additional moisture to the region. The western zones have a
greater chance for wetting precip which could lead to flooding. Up
to around an inch of rain could be possible between the New Mexico
and Arizona border. The chances for dry lightning will be further
reduced as more rain comes our way. For next week week, expect some
drying Sunday and Monday and temperatures go back to near normal
with moisture returning around Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75  97  74  81 /  10   0  40  60
Sierra Blanca           68  94  69  83 /   0   0  30  50
Las Cruces              70  95  69  76 /  10   0  40  70
Alamogordo              69  94  71  79 /  20   0  40  60
Cloudcroft              52  72  53  57 /  30  30  30  90
Truth or Consequences   68  94  70  78 /  30   0  50  70
Silver City             65  86  62  68 /  30  10  70  90
Deming                  68  94  67  77 /  20   0  50  70
Lordsburg               68  91  64  75 /  20  20  70  90
West El Paso Metro      75  96  74  79 /  10   0  40  70
Dell City               67  97  71  85 /  10   0  30  50
Fort Hancock            74  98  74  86 /   0   0  40  40
Loma Linda              69  92  69  77 /  10   0  40  60
Fabens                  71  97  71  82 /  10   0  40  60
Santa Teresa            71  95  70  79 /  10   0  40  70
White Sands HQ          73  95  74  77 /  20   0  40  70
Jornada Range           67  95  69  76 /  30   0  40  70
Hatch                   67  96  69  78 /  30   0  50  70
Columbus                71  95  70  78 /  10   0  50  70
Orogrande               71  96  73  78 /  10   0  40  60
Mayhill                 56  79  58  66 /  30  30  30  80
Mescalero               56  80  58  66 /  40  30  30  80
Timberon                54  79  57  65 /  20  20  30  80
Winston                 57  86  58  69 /  30  20  70  90
Hillsboro               63  90  63  71 /  30  10  70  80
Spaceport               66  93  68  75 /  30   0  40  70
Lake Roberts            50  84  54  66 /  30  30  70 100
Hurley                  64  87  61  69 /  30  10  70  90
Cliff                   55  91  56  70 /  30  20  70  90
Mule Creek              57  89  60  69 /  30  20  70  90
Faywood                 66  88  64  70 /  30  10  70  80
Animas                  68  91  62  76 /  20  20  80  90
Hachita                 68  92  63  76 /  10  20  70  80
Antelope Wells          68  90  63  74 /  10  20  80  90
Cloverdale              66  86  62  70 /  20  20  80  90

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan



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