Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182140
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
240 PM MST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing storm system will slowly exit the Borderland tonight. It
slid north of the region Friday keeping most of the area dry,
but did bring the winds up to windy. These winds will persist
through the evening as a Pacific cold front pushes in and turns
winds northerly. Winds will then slacken through the night. Nice
weather returns Saturday with plenty of sun and dry air, along
with lighter winds and cooler, near seasonal temperatures. Fair
weather continues Sunday and Monday with temperatures rebounding
to well above normal. The next storm system drops in Monday and
Tuesday to bring another slim shot of precipitation, but more
likely just another afternoon of strong winds on Monday. A cold
front will push in with this system and Tuesday will begin a
period of dry and cooler weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This 7-day package can be summed up with this short statement.
Three storm systems, three cold fronts, little impactful weather.
The first of these three systems/fronts is already occurring
today/tonight. This current upper trough is passing generally to
the north, with most of the minor precipitation associated staying
north or our area. However, being on the southern side of the
trough base, places us in a strong wind band associated with
strong winds off the surface, and a deep surface low over the TX
Panhandle. Advisory will be allowed to continue into the early
evening hours with this package. Just a bit of minor mountain
precip, a rain/snow mix, with very little accumulation, if any
expected. All that should be quickly waining and moving out by
day`s end. Thus all zones start the package w/o any POPs.

A Pacific front is pushing in from the NW and N this afternoon and
evening. It will turn winds and help to trim them back during the
evening hours today. Cooler and much drier air will move in to
clear the skies of clouds, and to drop temperatures closer to
seasonal averages for Saturday. Riding aloft will move in from the
west for the weekend and help to keep the weather pattern benign
through Sunday.

Monday we see the next upper trough approach as it drops in from
the NW. This will start a repeat scenario of what we are seeing
today (FRI). More clouds, and more winds with very little
precipitation in a mostly dry airmass. Winds speeds will likely
be close to what we are seeing today, so another wind advisory for
the region is possible for Monday afternoon. Both the GFS and the
ECMWF models show this upper system dropping further S and W than
today`s system which helps to pull in a backdoor front on Tuesday.
SUN and MON will be warm, but that changes TUE behind the front.
It also adds a bit of lift for slightly better precip chances for
TUE. We are talking lower snow levels across the region, but very
little accumulation anywhere.

Following this second system for MON/TUE the GFS indicates a third
for THU/FRI. Meanwhile the ECMWF keeps all energy in the flow well
to our west in the Plains. The GFS allows for a brief opportunity
for precipitation THU evening through FRI morning, but the EC is
dry. Thus no confidence yet on this third system. However Tuesday
onward does looks cooler with daily highs at or slightly below
daily averages.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue thru the forecast
period. Main concern are strong winds from the Pacific front leaving
the region this evening around 0Z to 5Z with blowing dust in some
portions. Expect W to NW winds between 20-25 kts becoming from the
NW between 10-15 kts after 9Z.

29-Crespo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Once the Pacific front leaves the region this evening an upper ridge
will dominate this weekend. Drier and warmer air will make it to the
region. Temperatures will rise from slightly below normal to above
normal by Sunday. Another system moves in on Monday and Tuesday with
another round of strong westerly winds as another Pacific front
moves through the region. Low min relative humidity values in the
teens along with strong winds may bring some concern for fire
weather conditions, especially in the far eastern zones of the
forecast area. Afterwards an upper ridge sets in the West Coast
leading to drier air again. Vent rates will be poor over the
weekend, but improve early next week with the next frontal system.


29-Crespo

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 37  57  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           34  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              33  56  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              31  53  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              18  36  15  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   31  54  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             29  43  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  30  56  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               30  56  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      36  56  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               34  58  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            35  59  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              33  50  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  35  59  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            34  56  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          34  55  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           28  55  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   30  57  23  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                32  56  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               32  54  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 25  41  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               23  40  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                23  40  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 25  44  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               29  51  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               27  54  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            26  46  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  28  43  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   19  50  20  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              21  50  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 29  45  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  31  57  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 29  55  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          30  55  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              31  51  29  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ401>417.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/29



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