Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 132140
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
340 PM MDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Looks like the Borderland will be served a dose of late fall or
even early winter-like weather this coming week as chilly air from
the upper midwest drops down over the area. In the short term,
Sunday will offer one last day of mild sunny weather. By late
Sunday night into Monday the cold front will advance from the east
across much of west Texas and southern New Mexico. Combined with
an upper low to our west, much of next week will see a slight
chance of showers, and temperatures Monday through Wednesday will
be around 20 to 25 degrees below normal. Light snow is possible
above 7000 feet, mainly over the Sacramento Mountains. The end of
the week may see a warmup back to around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Well last week we got a small dose of fall weather. This week we
will see our first sample of winter weather as cold air drops down
over us from the upper midwest. In the short term, dry west flow
circulates out from an upper low near southern California. This
will result in another mild day Sunday with temperatures just a
few degrees below normal. The low lifts out as an open trough
across the area mid day Sunday, giving the area, mainly western
half, a slight chance of showers.

Then the big chance occurs as a cold upper low originating near
Hudson Bay drops down to the upper midwest/Great Lakes region
Sunday night. This will funnel cold Canadian air down to our area,
with a back door front piercing most of the CWA from the east
Sunday evening through Monday. Models showing airmass behind the
cold front dry, but strong cold advection will bring airmass to
near saturation none the less. Gusty winds will also accompany the
front and west sides of mountains could see gusts of 40 mph or
slightly higher Monday morning through most of the day. Hudson Bay
upper low/trough eventually cut off another low over Arizona by
Monday or Tuesday and persist near the Four Corners area through
most of next week. Have more or less broad brushed POPs for now
after Monday. Layered moisture (PWs) only slightly increase
through the week, and very little dynamics left after upper jet
leaves area Monday night. Still broad scale flow around upper low
will provide weak upglide over cold air near the surface, so
can`t rule out slight chance of showers for most of the week.

Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will run 20-25 degrees below
normal, and may set some daily record low maximum temperatures.
Snow levels will also fall Monday and beyond, with lowest snow
levels over the Sacramento Mountains, where expect levels to fall
to 6000 ft by Monday night. Snow levels look to remain higher,
around 8000 ft, over the Gila/Black Range zones. Having said that,
with light QPFs, don`t expect any significant snowfall, though the
Sacramento Mtns could see 1-2 inches of snow Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 14/00Z-15/00Z...
Cloud cover is expected to diminish through the day as lingering
moisture from what was once Sergio leave the area. However, there is
enough moisture near the surface for patchy fog to develop between
6Z and 12Z in the lowlands and the Sacramento Mountains. Upper
trough in AZ keeps some chances for rain in the Gila Region and west
of the Continental Divide, and after 18Z over the Sacs. Generally
west to southwest winds between 5 to 15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper trough over AZ keeps an unsettled pattern over the region.
Rain chances still remain over the western zones including the Gila
Region. While some lingering moisture from Sergio at the surface
could develop areas of patchy fog mainly east of the Continental
Divide. Tomorrow night a back door cold front moves in bringing
strong east winds between 15 to 25 mph over Hudspeth, El Paso, and
southern Otero counties with stronger gusts over the western slopes
of mountains in this area. Temperatures after the front will drop
about 20 to 25 degrees below normal values for the season. This
will bring some snow chances for the higher elevations in the
Sacramento Mountains and maybe the Black Range, while the lowlands
keep a slight chance of rain. For the rest of the week, due to
the upper trough not moving from AZ the region has a slight chance
of rain. Temperatures will slowly climb back up until another
backdoor cold front comes next weekend decreasing the temps to
below normal again. Minimum relative humidity values remain mostly
over 40 percent across the region, except tomorrow when values
decrease to the upper 30s in the lowlands. Vent rates are
generally in the fair and poor category next week with tomorrow,
Sunday, been the exception.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 57  73  46  53 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca           53  73  39  48 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              51  73  45  54 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              53  69  45  55 /   0   0  10  20
Cloudcroft              40  53  30  37 /   0  10  10  30
Truth or Consequences   52  71  41  49 /  20  10  20  20
Silver City             47  67  43  50 /  30  20   0  30
Deming                  51  72  46  55 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               51  70  47  58 /  20  20   0  20
West El Paso Metro      57  73  46  52 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               53  72  38  49 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Hancock            56  77  45  52 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda              54  71  37  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                  55  74  45  52 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa            54  73  46  54 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          54  71  45  54 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range           52  71  46  54 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                   52  73  46  56 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                53  73  48  56 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               54  70  44  53 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                 44  60  28  36 /   0  10  20  30
Mescalero               44  61  30  41 /   0  10  20  30
Timberon                44  61  31  39 /   0  10  10  30
Winston                 41  67  35  47 /  20  20  20  30
Hillsboro               48  71  40  53 /  30  20  10  20
Spaceport               50  71  43  55 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts            43  67  38  52 /  30  20  10  30
Hurley                  47  69  42  53 /  20  20   0  20
Cliff                   45  69  43  62 /  40  20   0  30
Mule Creek              49  68  45  59 /  40  30   0  40
Faywood                 48  69  42  53 /  20  10   0  20
Animas                  51  71  49  59 /  30  10   0  20
Hachita                 50  72  45  56 /  20   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          51  70  47  58 /  20   0   0  20
Cloverdale              51  70  47  58 /  30  10   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Crespo


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.