000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201205
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
605 AM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
If you enjoy triple-digit afternoon temperatures, then the
Borderland is the place for you this week. The deserts of Far
West Texas and Southern New Mexico will be quite hot this week as
high pressure aloft helps to keep the region dry and cloud free.
Each day this week looks to be a bit warmer than the day before as
we experience a slight warming trend. For most of, if not all, of
us the weather looks dry through the weekend. There are slight
chances that a bit of gulf moisture works in over the Sacramento
mountains for a few showers or storms, but even those chances look
slim. For the weekend we stand to see breezy west winds return as
a dry trough passes to our west. This may also allow some moisture
to sneak in from the south, for slight chances for rain late in
the weekend and possibly next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
To the short-term, today through Friday, the pattern looks to hold
steady. That pattern would be a building bubble high pressure
system to our west, which should expand east and over our region.
This feature will be the dominating factor in our weather as we
experience the hot and dry conditions that June typically brings
to our region. The model guidance continues to show a long run of
100 degree afternoons across the southwestern deserts. In fact the
numbers put the El Paso daily high at 100 degrees or warmer
yesterday through next Wednesday. Needless to say, above normal
temperatures can be expected through the forecast period. For the
record, June has the highest probability of 100 degrees days of
all months; as over 45% of our 100 degrees day occur in June.

The airmass will continue dry, with very scant potential for any
precipitation. As is common this time of year, gulf moisture has
moved across Texas, and it lurks just to our east. However most
of our area continues under a dry westerly component flow to hold
that moisture mostly east. Dewpoints in the teens, 20s, and 30s
from the Rio Grande westward will be common. Dewpoints in the 40s
and 50s will be over areas east. The high pressure and warm air
aloft will limit instability and thus squelch most convection
potential. However a stray thunderstorms over the SACS and far
eastern lowlands can`t be completely ruled out thanks to the added
lift of topography.

Winds will be all over the place thanks to the high pressure
relaxing gradients and keeping the winds somewhat tame for most
days. Today the winds will go northerly, but east winds follow
Thursday, south winds Friday, and then stronger west winds for the
weekend as an upper trough passes to the north.

The passing upper trough (SUN and MON) will create a weakness in
the dominating upper ridge which may allow some moisture to move
in from the south late in the weekend. This gulf influence over
central Mexico comes from a slow moving easterly wave tracking
west across central Mexico through the week. This will position
a deep moisture pool just to our south. We`ll be watching Sunday
onward closely in the models to see if this moisture can find a
way north into our region to add storm potential to our extended
forecast periods.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/12Z-21/12Z... P6SM SKC through period. Winds
west to northwest shifting to the north through the day. Wind
speeds in the 5-12KTS range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong upper high will be building over the desert southwest over
the coming days before gradually getting broken down by an upper
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will lead to
hot and dry conditions as highs reach the 100 to 105 mark for the
lowlands with relative humidities falling back into the single
digits. Winds will be on the light side through the end of the week,
but with the break down of the ridge, gusty west winds are possible
Saturday which could lead to near critical conditions. Vent rates
will be mainly be in the good category the next couple days as winds
aloft decrease. For most of the region, no precipitation is
expected during the forecast period, however gulf moisture lurking
to the east may give the SACs a chance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                104  76 105  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca          101  72 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces             102  70 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo             100  70 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              81  56  80  57 /   0   0  20   0
Truth or Consequences  100  71 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             95  65  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                 103  68 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg              100  67 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     103  76 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              103  72 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           105  75 106  76 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              98  72 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 103  73 105  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa           102  72 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ         102  73 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range          102  68 103  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                  103  68 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus               103  70 106  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande              101  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 88  60  87  61 /   0   0  20  10
Mescalero               88  59  88  61 /   0   0  20   0
Timberon                87  60  87  60 /   0   0  20   0
Winston                 94  60  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               99  65 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               99  68 101  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            95  57  99  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  97  64 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   99  60 104  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              97  65 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 99  67 101  67 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                 101  66 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                101  67 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells         100  67 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              95  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/99