413
FXUS64 KEPZ 181204
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
504 AM MST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Pacific storm system will move into the Borderland today. The
storm will increase winds throughout the day, with winds reaching
25 to 35 mph by mid day. Areas of blowing dust will develop over
desert areas. Some showers will fall over the mountains, with snow
levels falling to 7000 feet this afternoon. Elevations above this
could see 1 to 2 inches of snow. The system exits the area by late
afternoon or early evening. Skies will clear for the weekend but
temperatures will be cooler. Another Pacific storm system will
sweep across the area Monday. This system looks mostly dry, but
winds will become strong again by afternoon. Temperatures well
above normal on Monday will cool dramatically Tuesday and
Wednesday to well below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like an active week ahead with temperatures on a roller
coaster ride. In the short term, Pacific storm system moving out
of the Great Basin will reach the CWA through this morning and
afternoon. Winds will increase through the morning and should
reach their peak early this afternoon. Wind advisories remain in
effect for all zones. Isolated showers should develop soon, mostly
over the mountains and northern zones. Snow levels will start out
this morning around 9000 ft, but then drop to around 7000 ft as
the surface cold front drops south over much of the area. This
front enters the northern CWA by early afternoon generally in an
east-west orientation but models show the front eventually getting
more of a westerly push and becoming oriented northwest-southeast
later afternoon. Front stalls out near the Continental Divide,
with a southerly push forcing the front southward over west Texas.
Did insert sprinkle wording for many of the southern zones in the
vicinity of the front. Dry air rapidly moves in behind the front,
ending any precip by around sunset, and gradually clearing the
skies.

Saturday and Sunday...upper ridge builds in for mostly clear
skies. Temperatures on Saturday will be about 7 to 10 degrees
cooler than today, then warmup Sunday above normal as winds turn
more south/southwest.

Monday and Tuesday...next Pacific storm system moves in on Monday.
System a bit slower in the day than today`s system, so max wind
potential may not be met. Still winds will approach or just
reach advisory criteria again. Pacific front will push through
Monday night for significant cooling as strong winds end. Arctic
back door front then pushes in Tuesday afternoon. Some low clouds
and light snow are possible with upslope flow over the Sacramento
Mountains, though models show airmass remains relatively dry. GFS
now showing some overrunning precip across the Arctic boundary
Tuesday over the Big Bend stretching up to near Hudspeth County.
For now I kept POPs out of Hudspeth, but next shift can re-
evaluate if needed. Temperatures look to cool around 12-17
degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday...upper ridge builds in over the west
coast, keeping our area in a strong north-northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures may cool about 5 more degrees on Wednesday (some 10
degrees below normal). Temps should warm back up close to normal
on Thursday. Backdoor cold front approaches the far eastern
terrain of the CWA, but for now will hold out precip.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z...
Generally VFR with SCT150 SCT-BKN250. Light southerly winds,
increasing rapidly to west/northwest 25G45 KTS by 15Z. Strong low
level wind shear at TAF sites until around 15Z when strong surface
winds begin. Developing mainly over mountains after 15Z...SCT-
BKN100 with ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN BKN040 5-7SM. Cold front dropping
south late afternoon will turn winds northwest 15G25 KTS and winds
will then continue to slowly diminish as they become north late
tonight. Skies will mostly clear by around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong winds of 25-35 mph developing over next 3 hours, with
gusts to 45-55 mph. Few mountain snow showers but with little
accumulation. Winds will gradually diminish late afternoon through
the night. Mostly dry through the weekend and first part of next
week, though another day of strong winds expected on Monday. With
lower RHs, critical fire weather conditions will be approached.

Min RHs today will be in the 30s lowlands and 40s mountains,
dropping over the weekend to the 20s lowlands and 30s mountains.
Min RHs even lower Monday as next batch of strong winds return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 64  37  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  34  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              61  33  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              59  31  53  27 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              38  18  36  15 /  40   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   57  31  54  26 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City             46  29  43  26 /  30   0   0   0
Deming                  59  30  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               59  30  56  28 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               64  34  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            67  35  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              58  33  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  65  35  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            63  34  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          61  34  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           60  28  55  24 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                   61  30  57  23 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                62  32  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               61  32  54  27 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                 47  25  41  20 /  30   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  23  40  19 /  40   0   0   0
Timberon                46  23  40  19 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                 48  25  44  19 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro               54  29  51  25 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport               59  27  54  23 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            44  26  46  20 /  40   0   0   0
Hurley                  46  28  43  25 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                   49  19  50  20 /  30   0   0   0
Mule Creek              49  21  50  22 /  30   0   0   0
Faywood                 46  29  45  26 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                  59  31  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 60  29  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          61  30  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              56  31  51  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for NMZ401-404>407-409>417.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for NMZ402-403-408.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

17 Hefner