000
FXUS64 KEPZ 151958
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
158 PM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into New Mexico and west Texas this
week resulting in showers and thunderstorms occurring across much
of the region this week. A few areas may experience heavy
rainfalls...hail and strong gusty winds. High pressure aloft
may cause drier weather next week. Temperatures will remain
seasonably warm through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Air mass rather unstable this afternoon with MUCAPE`s from 1000
to 2000 J/kg while precipitable is around an inch. Surface heating
plus upslope flow has thus initiated stronger convection around
high terrain with activity expected to spread via further heating
plus outflow boundaries. Slow storm movement indicates risk of
heavy rainfall plus moderate instability and 1500 J/kg DCAPE
values suggest potential for at least small hail and strong
downbursts.

Low level pattern will remain monsoonal with large heat low
covering most of the United States west of the divide combining
with high pressure to the east to transport moisture into the
region. Surface dewpoints will thus be in the 50s and lower 60s
into next week supporting precipitable water amounts around 1.2 to
1.5 inches into Saturday. Air mass will remain unstable with
CAPE`s around 1000 J/kg sustaining potential for deep convection.
Expect combination of surface heating...upslope winds and
possible weak disturbances to initiate updrafts with outflows
further sustaining activity into the evening. Slow storm movement
and abundant moisture should enhance risk of heavy rains and
flash flooding but with also DCAPE and CAPE values possibly
supporting several storms producing strong outflows and at least
small hail.

By Sunday upper ridge will be extending across the CWA with
associated center of high pressure aloft located around New
Mexico-Arizona border. Associated warm air aloft and subsidence
should cause some reduction in thunderstorm coverage early next
week. However abundant low level moisture and surface heating
should prove sufficient to initiate a few storms each day with
most activity around the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/00Z-17/00Z...
VFR conditions through most of the period. Gradually weakening high
pressure aloft will limit TSRA to mainly mainly isolated lowlands
and scattered mountain areas between 00Z-04Z and again between 18z-
24Z. Skies will be FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200. Winds generally
west to south at 5 to 15KTS except near thunderstorms. Wind gusts to
40KTS also possible near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level high pressure is gradually weakening over the area.  A
moderate surge of moisture will bring a slight increase in storm
chances late this afternoon and evening across the region. Area
mountains and western lowlands will have the best chance of wetting
rainfall. Moisture will continue to increase Thursday through
Saturday. This should mean daily rounds of isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening storm activity across all zones each of these
days. Temperatures will show a slight cooling back to near seasonal
averages through Saturday. Minimum relative humidity values will
stay above 20 percent most areas with moderate overnight recoveries.
Vent rates will range from fair to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  92  72  93 /  20  20  30  30
Sierra Blanca           70  90  68  89 /  20  20  30  40
Las Cruces              70  91  68  91 /  20  20  30  30
Alamogordo              69  92  68  90 /  10  20  30  40
Cloudcroft              57  68  54  68 /  20  40  40  60
Truth or Consequences   71  91  68  91 /  20  20  30  30
Silver City             62  83  62  83 /  30  40  40  60
Deming                  69  91  67  91 /  20  30  30  30
Lordsburg               68  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  30
West El Paso Metro      73  92  71  93 /  20  20  30  30
Dell City               68  94  68  93 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Hancock            69  94  70  93 /  20  20  30  40
Loma Linda              70  88  69  88 /  20  20  30  40
Fabens                  68  93  69  92 /  20  20  30  40
Santa Teresa            72  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  30
White Sands HQ          71  91  69  92 /  20  20  30  40
Jornada Range           68  92  67  91 /  20  20  30  40
Hatch                   70  93  68  92 /  20  20  30  40
Columbus                70  91  69  92 /  20  30  30  30
Orogrande               72  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  30
Mayhill                 60  78  58  77 /  20  40  40  60
Mescalero               61  78  58  78 /  20  40  40  60
Timberon                60  77  59  76 /  20  40  40  60
Winston                 60  83  59  83 /  30  40  40  60
Hillsboro               67  89  65  88 /  20  30  40  50
Spaceport               69  92  66  91 /  20  20  30  40
Lake Roberts            57  82  57  82 /  30  40  40  60
Hurley                  63  84  63  85 /  30  40  30  50
Cliff                   64  87  62  88 /  30  40  40  50
Mule Creek              65  85  64  87 /  30  30  40  50
Faywood                 66  86  65  86 /  20  40  30  50
Animas                  68  88  67  90 /  40  40  40  30
Hachita                 67  89  67  90 /  30  30  40  30
Antelope Wells          65  86  65  88 /  40  40  40  50
Cloverdale              63  84  64  84 /  50  40  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/04 Lundeen