000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211105
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
505 AM MDT Tue May 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be windy and cool, while Wednesday will be windy and
warm. For the end of the week we will see a little less winds with
temperatures running near average. For the holiday weekend we will
be warm dry and occasionally breezy. Then on Monday we will see
warm and windy conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level storm system that brought us the windy and dusty
conditions yesterday, has moved off to our east, but we will still
be windy today as there is still some strong winds aloft and  we
will see another lee side surface trough develop over the Texas
Panhandle. Blowing dust will be less of a factor today, since wind
speeds will be less and we will see high temperatures running 10
to 15 degrees below average which will be around 5 degrees below
Monday`s highs. On Wednesday our eyes will swing back around to
the west as another upper level storm system gets organized. By
Wednesday afternoon the upper low will be over southeastern
California, this in not ideal for a strong wind maker, but it
will be close enough to give us another windy day on Wednesday.
Right now it looks like we will stay just below wind advisory
levels both today and Wednesday, with the one exception being the
in the Sacramento Mountains today were they could continue to see
winds of 25 to 35 mph through out the day.

For the end of the week, the upper level trough to our west will
lift almost due north because of a large upper level blocking
ridge over the southeast U.S. We will see slightly lower winds
speeds, but our afternoon temperatures will creep back to seasonal
normals for this time of the year. For the weekend into the
holiday Monday, we will see a dry southwest flow across the area
which will keep our temperatures a few degrees above average with
breezy to windy afternoon conditions each day. The strongest winds
will occur on Monday, when we will again be close to wind advisory
level speeds.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/12Z-22/12Z
We will see VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The upper level
storm system that brought us the winds and blowing dust yesterday
has moved off to our east. In the wake of the system we will see
cooler conditions, but we will still be windy with west winds of
27022G32KT most of the day. Ceilings will be unlimited through
the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite the fact that the upper level storm system that brought us
wind and dust yesterday has moved off to our east, we will
continue to see critical fire weather conditions today and again
on Wednesday. For today we will be cooler, but min RH`s will be
between 10 to 15% in the lowlands and closer to 20% in the
mountains. At the same time we will see windy conditions this
morning into the afternoon hours. On Wednesday an approaching
upper level system will continue our windy conditions and we will
see min RH drop a little further, with single digit min RH`s
possible in the lowlands (mainly east of the Rio Grande), so Red
Flag warnings and Fire Weather watch will be needed for today and
Wednesday.

For the end of the week, we will see winds slow some what, but our
min RH`s for both Thursday and Friday will run from 10 to 20%. On
Saturday we see winds begin to increase, but they should stay just
below critical levels. But for Sunday and Monday, we will again
see winds and min RH`s reach Red Flag conditions. Still not seeing
any rain chances through the end of the month.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           74  53  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              73  49  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              74  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              49  39  60  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   72  50  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             63  44  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  74  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               72  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      77  57  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               78  53  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            83  57  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              71  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  80  56  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            76  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          74  56  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           72  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   74  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                76  51  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               74  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 61  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               59  43  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                58  41  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 64  39  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               69  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               71  47  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            63  38  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  67  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   70  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              65  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 67  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  76  48  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 75  47  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          75  49  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              69  46  71  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ111-112.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NMZ111-112.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ413.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ414>416.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ419.

&&

$$

Brice