000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281937
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
137 PM MDT Thu May 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor cold front will push moisture and rain chances
into the region for this afternoon and evening. Storms will be
isolated but could produce some strong outflow winds. In addition
to the rain chances, we will see some strong easterly winds
tonight, especially for locations just to the west of the Franklin
and Organ Mountains in El Paso and Las Cruces. For Friday through
Monday we will be warm with seasonal temperatures and just a
slight chance for rain in area mountains and southwest New Mexico.
For the middle part of next week the whole area will see a slight
chance for rain with a continuation of our seasonal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...This Afternoon, Tonight and Tomorrow...
The convergence of northerly winds with westerly winds over
southwestern NM will lead to storms this afternoon and evening.
Currently, convection has started to develop along the Black Range
and the Gila Region. However, the activity in this area will be
inhibited due to marginal instability with MUCAPE generally below
500 J/kg, and precip water between 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Nonetheless,
the main concern with any of these storms will be strong downburst
winds, and small hail. In the other hand, the environment is more
unstable and moist in areas east of the Rio Grande, where storms
have started to form over the Sacramento Mountains. The initial push
of a backdoor cold front will be advecting unstable and moist air to
the region. MUCAPES in this are expected to be up to 1000 J/kg with
precip water values between 0.75 to 1 inch. Thus, storms have better
chances for development in this area, as well as better
probabilities for strong downburst winds with any storm. The only
caveat with this situation is that the latest run of the CAM
reflectivity members, is not showing as much convection than what
was observed in previous runs. But it does keep the convection over
SW NM.

The storm chances decrease through the late evening as the secondary
push of the backdoor cold front passes. Most of the convection
should be done by midnight. Nonetheless, the frontal passage brings
gusty winds to far west Texas and south central New Mexico this
evening. Winds should be in the 15 to 30 mph range with gusts up to
40 mph. Stronger gusts will be possible along the western slopes of
the Hueco, Franklin and Organ Mountains. The winds will diminish
after 3AM as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit. However, breezy
winds (between 10 to 20 mph) will continue through tomorrow
afternoon.

Tomorrow, behind the frontal passage temperatures will be about 5
degrees lower than today. The moisture in the area will be enough to
generate storms in the Gila region and the Sacramento Mountains
again. Although, coverage should be sparse compared to today, as the
main lifting mechanism will be only orographic. Plus instability and
moisture content will be lower than today. The best chances for
storms will be in eastern AZ, and over west central NM including
portions of the northern Gila region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Upper level high pressure will be in control of our weather Friday
evening through at least Sunday. With a ridge aloft it would
usually eliminate our rain chances, but at the surface we will
continue to see a southeast flow which will allow moisture to
continue to trickle into the region. We will see just enough
moisture to give us a slight chance for thunderstorms in area
mountains and for a few locations to the west of the Continental
Divide. Our high temperatures for this weekend will run very near
seasonal averages.

For Monday and Tuesday of next week, there are still some
differences in the extended models, but they are coming closer
together. In actuality, the ECMWF model is sticking to its dry
and warm forecast with an upper level ridge solidly in control of
our weather. The GFS has moved closer to the EC solution, the GFS,
keeps more of the ridge centered on New Mexico, keeps much of the
moisture to our south and keeps the upper level trough stuck,
spinning, off to our west. For Monday and Tuesday, I have trimmed
back the rain chances, but still left at least a slight chance for
now for southwest New Mexico and area mountains. Then for
Wednesday and Thursday of next week, I have left a slight chance
for thunderstorms in the forecast as the GFS finally allows the
western trough to sweep across the region, while also allowing
some moisture to flow up from the south. The EC model continues to
be the kill joy, keeping us warm and mostly dry through the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE...
Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period. MVFR conditions
possible near showers and thunderstorms. Storms are possible
mainly in area mountains. Otherwise, storm coverage appears to be
spotty. Storms could be possible this evening near KELP/KLRU, but
held off as models have trended down with storm coverage in the
lowlands. TAFs will be amended for any changes in storm coverage.
Also a backdoor cold front moves in this evening and it will
bring breezy and gusty winds to the western slopes of area
mountains. Thus, breezy winds will continue through midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper ridge  continues to strengthen to our west. SW New Mexico
will continue with above normal heat this afternoon. Otherwise, a
backdoor cold front will move through the region this afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will be lower tomorrow behind the front, but
only about 5 degrees compared to Thursday. So, we will be back to
near normal temperatures on Friday. The additional moisture in the
region will keep minimum relative humidity in the teens for the
lowlands, and the 20s over the mountain areas. Thus, there is
another chance for storms to develop in the Gila region and the
Sacramento Mountains, but with less instability and moisture storm
coverage will be more sparse. And this will lead to better chances
for isolated dry lightning.

Over the weekend, the upper ridge establishes in the region. This
will help to bring some stability to our area, but residual moisture
from today`s frontal passage, and persistent low-level southeasterly
winds, will keep the region more moist than normal for late
May/early June over the area. This means daytime clouds and even
very slight chances for a few showers and thunderstorms, especially
over portions of the northern Gila region. Again this may bring some
isolated dry lightning too. The models have been trending towards a
drier solution, thus RH will be slowly dropping into next week.
Temperatures will stay near the seasonal average. Strong winds are
not expected, but any storm can produce strong and gusty outflows,
and afternoons may brief periods of gusty winds due to deep mixing
and thermal activity.

Ventilation rates will be good to excellent through the weekend and
early next week, as mixing heights remain generally over 10kft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  92  69  94 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           61  86  60  88 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces              64  90  63  92 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo              60  91  62  95 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft              46  68  48  71 /  30  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences   64  91  65  93 /  10   0  10   0
Silver City             60  86  60  87 /  10  10  10  10
Deming                  61  93  59  95 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               64  93  63  95 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro      70  92  69  95 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City               59  90  59  94 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            64  93  63  96 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              64  86  64  89 /  20   0   0   0
Fabens                  67  93  67  95 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            65  91  64  94 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          70  91  69  93 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range           62  90  62  92 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                   62  92  62  94 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                65  93  64  95 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande               64  90  62  93 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                 48  79  52  83 /  20  10  10  10
Mescalero               48  79  51  82 /  20  20  10  10
Timberon                47  75  49  79 /  20  10   0   0
Winston                 51  85  53  87 /  20  10  20  10
Hillsboro               57  90  58  92 /  10  10   0   0
Spaceport               59  90  59  92 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            53  87  54  89 /  20  10  20  10
Hurley                  57  88  57  90 /  10   0  10   0
Cliff                   53  93  54  95 /  10  10  10  20
Mule Creek              59  91  62  92 /   0  20  20  10
Faywood                 58  88  58  90 /  10   0  10   0
Animas                  61  96  60  97 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                 60  93  58  95 /   0   0  10   0
Antelope Wells          61  95  60  96 /   0   0  10   0
Cloverdale              61  91  62  92 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Crespo/Brice