Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
120 FXUS64 KEPZ 121130 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 530 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - More widespread, and organized thunderstorms are expected tomorrow, starting in the higher terrain, and spreading north to south into the lowland deserts in the evening. These storms will bring strong wind gusts, and despite recent rainfall, more blowing dust. - An overall uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected through the week, with the usual monsoon hazards of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and localized blowing dust. - With the return of moisture, temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Relatively isolated convection today, where there were storms, there were impacts. Heavy rainfall over the Uvas Valley from training thunderstorms, gusty winds producing blowing dust between Las Cruces and Deming, virga bomb downbursts in the lower valley, and one very impressive storm just west of Van Horn to cap it off. The storms over Uvas Valley today, and weaker convection around El Paso, formed along a surface trough extending south from a surface low over central New Mexico this afternoon. This low will weaken as it drifts south tonight, but nevertheless the pressure gradient looks to tighten up to its south, mainly near the international border, partially due to high pressure developing in the wake of convection over central Chihuahua. Winds at 850 mb look to ramp up to around 40 knots along a low level jet extending from south of the Gila and into southern Hudspeth County. This will result in low level wind shear initially, then as winds shift from the SW to WSW, strong downslope wind gusts look to develop east of the Franklin Mountains, and possibly as far north as the Organs. Winds should become noticeably gusty after about 2 AM, but will peak roughly between 5 AM and 8 AM. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible in parts of NE El Paso, and up to around Chaparral. Gusts to 45 mph look more likely by the time you get to WSMR Main Post, then drop off dramatically north of there, due to the location of the surface low and stronger winds aloft. Went with a Wind Advisory for the wee hours in NE El Paso, and had to include the entire western Tularosa Basin zone to capture Chaparral, despite the dropoff in winds further north. Saturday will be another active day. Taking the top-down approach, strongly diffluent flow will be place across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas through the afternoon. In the mid-levels, the subtropical ridge will shift far to the west over southern California. That sets us up for north to northwest midlevel flow, which is always a notable pattern. Sure enough, a shortwave trough will be grazing northern New Mexico in the afternoon, increasing deep-layer shear to around 20-25 knots. Mid-level temperatures will remain on the cooler side, -8 to -9C, which helped things out today, but will spread further south Saturday. This will be enough shear and upper level support for more organized convection as it develops in the higher terrain. The combination of more organized thunderstorms and low level dry air should allow for merging of outflow cold pools, with thunderstorms and strong outflow plowing south into the lowlands in the evening despite lesser instability over the lowland deserts. The 00Z HRRR continued to suggest very strong outflow wind potential, with a broad area of gusts over 30 knots, a several pockets of 50 to 60 knot gusts. Its held this theme for several runs, though the location of the strongest winds has been inconsistent, as you`d expect with convection. Mentioned SVR potential in the grids with damaging winds and blowing dust. Had to completely overhaul the PoP grids as the NBM/Forecast Builder was far too low compared even to the HREF. Sunday looks to remain active, with improving low level moisture east of the Divide, and continued northerly flow aloft. Mid level temperatures climb slightly, but high aloft, a deeper trough and strong PV anomaly drops south. The deeper moisture is a bit of a concern for the Sacramento Mountains. Monday into Tuesday, an inverted trough south of the Big Bend will slowly drift in our direction, while low level SE flow boosts PWAT values to around 1.20 inches. Some mid level drying/subsidence ahead of the inverted trough may diminish precip chances over eastern areas Monday, with the west staying more active, but it`s difficult to hang your hat over such subtleties even on Day 3. By mid-week the pattern looks unclear, and rather bizarre, with a weak subtropical ridge over northern Arizona, and disorganized low pressure areas aloft strung out across northern Mexico. PW values will try to climb back up to around 1.50 inches. Overall, precip chances look good, though there`s likely to be a dud day in there somewhere if too much convective debris hangs around. Played things close to the NBM, but capped off PoPs at 70 or 60 percent in the extended. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Gusty winds will continue this morning with sustained speeds of 20 to 25 kts and gusts up to 35 knots. There is a slight risk for higher, especially at KELP. Nevertheless, winds will gradually decrease after 13z with much of the afternoon seeing speeds around 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. Direction will generally be from the west (240-290). SCT SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop this afternoon with strong wind gusts the main concern (locally 50+ knots) along with BLDU and +RA. PROB30s are included in each TAF local for this afternoon. Outside of storms expect VFR conditions FEW-SCT250 to become SCT080 with TCU and CB during the afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Moisture will return to the area this afternoon with min RH values in the mid to upper teens, except for locations west of the divide where min RH values will be a bit lower. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with strong gusty winds the main concern. We enter a stretch of increased moisture while highs drop to near or below normal with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds throughout the period will top out around 10 to 15 MPH each afternoon outside of storms. Venting will range from poor to fair in the Sacramento Mountains with fair, east, ranging to excellent west toward the AZ border for this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 101 74 96 72 / 40 50 20 50 Sierra Blanca 93 64 88 63 / 30 40 40 40 Las Cruces 98 68 94 67 / 60 70 20 50 Alamogordo 97 66 92 65 / 30 40 30 40 Cloudcroft 74 50 70 47 / 50 60 70 40 Truth or Consequences 98 69 94 68 / 40 40 30 50 Silver City 91 62 91 60 / 60 50 70 50 Deming 101 69 98 68 / 60 70 30 50 Lordsburg 98 68 97 67 / 50 50 50 50 West El Paso Metro 99 73 95 72 / 40 50 20 50 Dell City 95 68 91 68 / 30 50 30 30 Fort Hancock 100 72 96 70 / 20 50 40 30 Loma Linda 91 65 87 64 / 30 50 40 30 Fabens 100 71 96 70 / 30 50 30 30 Santa Teresa 98 71 94 70 / 40 50 20 50 White Sands HQ 98 71 94 70 / 50 70 30 50 Jornada Range 98 68 94 66 / 60 70 40 50 Hatch 101 69 97 67 / 70 70 30 50 Columbus 101 71 97 70 / 30 50 20 50 Orogrande 95 68 91 67 / 40 60 30 50 Mayhill 80 55 78 54 / 50 40 60 40 Mescalero 85 55 81 53 / 50 50 70 40 Timberon 80 53 77 52 / 40 50 60 40 Winston 91 57 88 55 / 70 40 50 50 Hillsboro 97 64 94 63 / 60 50 40 50 Spaceport 98 66 94 64 / 50 50 30 50 Lake Roberts 93 58 92 56 / 60 50 70 50 Hurley 94 63 93 62 / 70 60 70 50 Cliff 98 65 99 64 / 50 50 70 50 Mule Creek 94 63 95 62 / 50 50 50 50 Faywood 93 64 91 63 / 70 70 60 50 Animas 98 68 98 66 / 20 30 40 60 Hachita 97 66 96 66 / 20 30 30 60 Antelope Wells 96 67 96 65 / 20 30 40 60 Cloverdale 91 64 91 63 / 30 30 60 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Eastern/Central El Paso County. NM...Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown