000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221119
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
519 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see just a slight chance for rain today, but then much
better rain and thunderstorm chances arrive on Tuesday. A few
storms on Tuesday could be strong. A drying trend will start on
Wednesday and will continue through the weekend. Today`s high
temperatures will be five degrees below average, but Tuesday and
Wednesday`s highs will be almost ten degrees below average. For
the end of the week into the weekend we will see high running near
or a few degrees above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low to our west and the easterly winds at the
surface have been able to import some modest amounts of moisture.
The moisture and clouds will continue to increase today and
especially tonight. We could see a few showers or isolated
thunderstorms today, mainly west of the Rio Grande. Then tonight
the upper level low to our west will open up and begin to move in
our direction. As the trough gets closer it will help increase
our rain chances and that will be the forecast challenge. Will we
see lots of rain showers or could we see some strong to severe
thunderstorms?

In the thunderstorm camp, we have the approaching upper level
trough with its increased instability, plus we have already seen
lots of thunderstorm activity over Arizona in the last 24 hours
which is closer to the trough. In addition, the trough will help
bring southwesterly winds aloft across the region, while at the
same time we will still have easterly winds near the surface. We
will see some moderate speed shear and some pretty good
directional shear on Tuesday. This shear profile could help the
thunderstorm become strong and approach severe levels. On the,
just rain showers, side of the forecast, we will have lots of
clouds develop out ahead of the trough and maybe even some rain
showers. Both factors would tend to suppress thunderstorm
activity. Also, modeled CAPE (convective energy) numbers are not
very high staying around 200 to 700 J/kg. So right now I think we
will see lots of rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms.
As I mentioned if we do get thunderstorms they could get strong,
with the main threat being large hail. I`m not expecting a bunch
of severe thunderstorms, but I can`t rule out that we could see a
few storms producing some 1 inch hail.

The upper level trough sweeps through Wednesday morning, and with
the moisture still in place we could see a few stray showers
during the day on Wednesday, with the best chances for rain east
of the Rio Grande. By Thursday we will see drier air begin to
filter into the region, as our upper level flow turns more toward
the northwest. Both the extended GFS and ECMWF indicate that an
upper level ridge will build into the southwest U.S. for the end
of the week into the weekend which will continue to keep us sunny
and dry.

Taking a quick look at temperatures, today`s highs will continue
to run a few degrees below average. Then as the clouds and rain
move across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see our
highs settle around 10 degrees below average. We have seen a
stretch of below normal high temperatures, but with the upper
ridge building in for the end of the week, into the weekend we
will finally see our high temperatures a few degrees above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/12Z-23/12Z
Clouds will be variable today and we could see some off and on
midlevel ceilings of SCT-BKN100-120 but generally ceilings will
stay well in the VFR range through the evening hours. Later
tonight an approaching upper level storm system will help generate
more clouds and increased rain and thunderstorm chances. After
midnight clouds will increase and ceilings will decrease and
lower so that by Tuesday morning we could see ceilings of BKN050.
There will be a slight chance for showers today, mainly west of
the Rio Grande, but then rain chances will increase and spread
east early Tuesday morning. Right now, visibilities look to stay
in the VFR or MVFR ranges.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We will see a couple of more days with rain chances before we will
see a drying and warming trend. For today we will see just a
slight chance for rain, mainly west of the Rio Grande, but then an
approaching upper level storm system will help generate widespread
rain showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. On Wednesday we will
see just a slight chance for rain and then for Thursday through
the weekend we will get back to our dry conditions. Winds will
stay below critical levels today through the weekend. Min RH`s
will stay above 40% today through Wednesday, but then they will
drop back into the 30`s for the end of the week into the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  57  65  53 /   0  30  70  60
Sierra Blanca           70  52  63  50 /   0   0  60  60
Las Cruces              70  53  64  49 /   0  30  70  60
Alamogordo              70  53  63  49 /   0  20  70  60
Cloudcroft              55  39  46  35 /   0  20  80  60
Truth or Consequences   70  53  63  49 /   0  30  70  60
Silver City             66  48  60  44 /  20  50  70  60
Deming                  70  54  65  49 /   0  40  70  60
Lordsburg               71  53  67  49 /  20  50  60  60
West El Paso Metro      71  56  65  52 /   0  30  70  60
Dell City               72  54  63  50 /   0   0  70  60
Fort Hancock            75  56  68  54 /   0   0  60  60
Loma Linda              69  52  61  47 /   0  10  60  60
Fabens                  74  56  67  52 /   0  20  60  60
Santa Teresa            71  55  65  51 /   0  30  70  60
White Sands HQ          71  55  63  51 /   0  30  70  60
Jornada Range           70  54  63  50 /   0  30  70  60
Hatch                   71  54  65  50 /   0  30  70  60
Columbus                70  54  66  51 /   0  40  70  60
Orogrande               71  55  64  50 /   0  20  70  60
Mayhill                 64  42  51  38 /   0  20  80  60
Mescalero               63  43  52  39 /   0  20  80  60
Timberon                62  44  53  41 /   0  20  80  60
Winston                 65  44  57  39 /  20  50  80  60
Hillsboro               69  49  61  45 /  10  40  70  60
Spaceport               70  52  63  49 /   0  30  70  60
Lake Roberts            67  44  60  39 /  20  50  70  60
Hurley                  67  49  61  44 /  20  50  70  60
Cliff                   72  49  66  44 /  20  50  60  60
Mule Creek              69  49  64  45 /  20  50  70  60
Faywood                 67  50  61  46 /  20  50  70  60
Animas                  70  53  67  49 /  20  50  60  60
Hachita                 70  52  66  48 /  10  40  70  60
Antelope Wells          70  52  67  48 /  20  50  60  60
Cloverdale              72  52  66  45 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice