151
FXUS64 KEPZ 130533
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1133 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions through the period. Thunderstorm activity has
waned, and wind is dying down. All terminals are finally under 10
knots from the south, and wind will continue to decrease to light
and variable by sunrise. Wind becomes southerly at around 10G20KTS
after 18Z Sunday. Storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon over
the Sacramento Mountains, which may create outflow winds and
further storms in the lowlands. Confidence is too low at this time
for TAF inclusion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...209 PM MDT Sat Jun 12 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day with record highs is expected today. On Sunday and
Monday, we will continue to have near record temperatures. For the
rest of the week, temperatures in the lowlands will be mostly in
the upper 90s or around a 100. The mountains will be cooler, but
still above normal for the season. We will have slight chances for
thunderstorms in the mountains over the next couple of days.
Although rainfall accumulations will be mostly light.

&&
29

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday...
Upper high currently sitting right over the CWA and by the end of
the day Sunday will be shifted slightly NW.  The main difference
between today and tomorrow will be that there are currently some
isolated storms trying to form over the Sacs and possibly later into
Hudspeth county where best moisture is located.  Models all in good
agreement that outflow from these storms will push westward across
most of the CWA overnight.  This will raise dew points areawide,
although still not significantly, from the 20s and 30s to the 30s
and 40s. These slightly higher dew points and some easterly winds
will help to keep overnight lows warmer than recent days with mid
60s to mid 70s expected.

For Sunday, with the high shifting NW, upper flow will be turning
more NE and surface flow will be east to southeast.  This will lead
to temperatures being just a little cooler, at least east of the
Continental Divide.  Over the western CWA, should still see highs
close to today.  Will still see high temperatures getting to low end
Heat Advisory criteria, so will continue as is.  Once again there
will be some isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the
mountains and some hints in GFS and EC that a couple storms could
form over the Gila region as well as the Sacs. Shear and instability
remain weak so again likely popcorn storms with gusty winds

&&
26

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Friday Night...
The upper high responsible for the hottest temperatures of this
week keeps moving to the northwest. An east to southeast flow
persists bringing in moist air to the eastern portions of the CWA.
However, we are not expecting much in terms of showers and
thunderstorms, except near the Sacramento Mountains where
topographic lifting and some marginal instability will generate
some storms. For the rest, of the area it will be hard as we
remain under an area of subsidence aloft.

By Tuesday, the upper high moves over to the Four Corners area
that will allow for more moisture to move in across the region.
Subsequently, this extends our chances for storms into the Gila
region and the Black Range. There is one caveat though, with any
storm that develops it appears that rainfall accumulations will be
generally on the lighter side. Anyway, the Gila region has the
best chances for storms during this portion of the forecast. This
scenario persists through the rest of the week as the high
wobbles around the Four Corners. Temperatures will remain at or
near 100F in the lowlands, while the mountains above 7500 ft have
temps in the 70s and 80s.

This weekend a plume of moisture starts to slip in from the west
along the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico. Storm chances increase
over the western portions of the CWA. The high aloft moves to the
southwest into AZ, which will help push the moisture in our
direction. However, temperatures appear to increase again as we
have more of a southerly flow near the surface advecting warm air
into the Borderland.

&&
29

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally continued hot and mainly dry with just some isolated
storms over area mountains for the upcoming week.  Temperatures will
be slowly cooling down toward normal which will put lowland highs
around 100 degrees, but minimum relative humidities will remain in
the 8 to 15 percent range for the lowlands and slightly higher in
the mountains.  Any thunderstorms that do develop this week could
produce some dry lightning along with gusty winds.  Winds will
predominantly be east to southeast through the week in the 5 to 15
mph range. Vent rates will be very good to excellent.

&&
26

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78 105  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           70  99  68  95 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces              72 104  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              71 104  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              59  79  55  79 /  10  10  20  20
Truth or Consequences   72 103  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             68  98  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
Deming                  66 105  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               66 105  71 105 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      77 105  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               67 102  69 100 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            74 105  71 103 /  20   0   0   0
Loma Linda              72  97  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                  76 106  74 103 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            74 104  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          72 103  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           61 103  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   69 106  70 104 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                73 105  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               73 104  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 60  90  59  89 /  10  20  20  10
Mescalero               59  89  58  89 /  10  10  20  10
Timberon                55  87  56  86 /  10  10   0  10
Winston                 57  95  59  96 /   0  10   0   0
Hillsboro               68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               65 104  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            46 100  57  99 /   0  10   0   0
Hurley                  62 100  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   54 103  55 107 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              47 101  62 102 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 69 100  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  65 106  69 105 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 64 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          69 105  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              67 100  70  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for NMZ404>407-
     409>413-417.

TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

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