Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
146 FXUS64 KEPZ 280449 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1049 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily thunderstorms become more isolated this weekend. As usual, the best chances for storms will be over area mountains. - Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding, especially in the Sacramento Mountains, and near recent burn scars. - Better rain chances expected for the middle of next week as temperatures stay near or below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 952 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A few showers and storms are lingering late this evening west of Las Cruces with pockets of heavy rain. This activity is expected to dissipate by midnight as the atmosphere continues to stabilize. For this weekend, weak ridging builds over the Four Corners region, allowing moisture levels to drop to near normal for late June. PWs fall to about 1" or just below on Saturday, staying relatively low through Sunday compared to where we were earlier this week. The best moisture remains over eastern areas as the plume shifts more to the south and east. Scattered storms develop in the mountains each afternoon through Sunday, shooting off outflow boundaries into the lowlands by the evening and initiating isolated activity. The flash flood threat is low due to the lower PWs, but the slow storm motion and possible training of storms could give spots heavy rainfall (1-2") - most likely in the Sacs, including recent burn scars. The upper high shifts north on Monday, allowing for a better fetch of moisture from the east to develop. Rain/storm chances increase for Monday areawide as PWs begin to climb again. The high is nudged to the east by an upper low off the CA coast by the middle of the week with an even better moisture tap forming from the south and southeast. Tue-Thu look like a pretty active period in terms of thunderstorm coverage. There is a low-medium threat of flash flooding around the middle of the week due to PWs reaching near record levels again. Global ensembles generally show PWs at 1.3-1.6" next week for KELP with the Euro and its AI ensemble all in on record moisture. The GFS ensemble is more mixed. For the last event, the Euro got on board much sooner than the GFS, so I`m inclined to lean towards the wetter solution. I would expect to see scattered to numerous showers and storms each day from Tue-Thu with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially on recent burn scars. After Thursday, moisture levels begin to decrease along with storm chances. Temperatures will be near normal this weekend with the upper high close by and lower storm chances forecast. Temps drop to seasonably cool levels as we head into the middle of next week due to better rain chances and more cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 952 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Showers and storms continue to weaken west of KLRU to start the period with an outflow boundary heading SE towards KELP. The outflow could reduce VIS to 5SM or below at KELP before improving. Other than lingering -RA at KDMN for about an hour, dry conditions expected for the rest of the night as mid clouds hang around. Isolated showers and storms redevelop Saturday afternoon with high enough confidence to mention TS at KDMN but no other terminal. Outflows and BLDU can be seen again later in the period. Outside of gusty outflows, prevailing winds will be AOB 6kts mostly from S-SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Rain chances expected each afternoon, but this weekend and early next week will feature a bit of a downtick in activity as drier air filters in. Critical min RH values return to the Gila region and western lowland areas as soon as tomorrow and spread towards the Rio Grande by Sunday. Locations along and west of the Continental Divide are still highlighted for critical min RHs Monday but better rain chances exist Tuesday and onward bringing min RHs above critical areawide. Better moisture flushes in midweek allowing for thunderstorms to be very efficient rain producers which could bring trouble to recently burned areas. Wind speeds stay below critical thresholds each day with surface winds generally 5-15 mph each afternoon becoming calm overnight. Ventilation rates will be fair to very good over the weekend becoming good to very good Monday and Tuesday then fair to good Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 72 95 74 / 20 20 10 10 Sierra Blanca 83 65 86 66 / 50 40 30 20 Las Cruces 87 65 93 67 / 20 10 10 10 Alamogordo 87 65 93 69 / 50 20 30 10 Cloudcroft 65 49 71 51 / 60 20 50 10 Truth or Consequences 89 67 95 69 / 20 20 10 10 Silver City 85 60 90 64 / 30 30 20 10 Deming 91 66 96 67 / 20 30 10 10 Lordsburg 94 65 96 67 / 30 30 10 10 West El Paso Metro 88 73 93 75 / 20 20 10 10 Dell City 86 67 91 68 / 50 30 20 10 Fort Hancock 89 71 93 72 / 40 40 30 10 Loma Linda 81 65 85 67 / 40 20 10 10 Fabens 88 70 93 71 / 30 20 10 10 Santa Teresa 88 70 92 71 / 20 20 10 10 White Sands HQ 88 71 93 74 / 40 20 10 10 Jornada Range 87 65 93 67 / 40 20 10 10 Hatch 91 65 96 67 / 20 20 10 10 Columbus 91 69 96 71 / 10 20 10 10 Orogrande 84 65 91 68 / 40 20 20 10 Mayhill 76 54 81 56 / 80 20 50 10 Mescalero 76 53 82 56 / 60 20 40 10 Timberon 72 51 77 54 / 70 20 40 10 Winston 83 54 88 56 / 20 30 20 10 Hillsboro 89 62 93 64 / 30 30 20 10 Spaceport 88 63 93 65 / 30 20 10 10 Lake Roberts 87 56 92 58 / 50 30 20 10 Hurley 87 60 92 63 / 30 30 20 10 Cliff 94 62 98 64 / 20 20 10 10 Mule Creek 91 59 94 61 / 20 10 10 10 Faywood 86 62 90 66 / 40 30 20 10 Animas 93 66 96 68 / 30 30 10 10 Hachita 90 64 94 66 / 30 30 10 10 Antelope Wells 90 65 93 67 / 40 40 10 10 Cloverdale 86 63 91 66 / 40 30 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson