Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 122132
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
332 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of heat on Wednesday, before we transition to a bit
cooler and more humid patter for the end of the work week. Upper
high over eastern New Mexico will slowly drift east over Texas by
Friday. Another hot day on Wednesday will slowly decrease Thursday
into the weekend, as first higher humidity will dampen
temperatures, and then by the weekend considerably cloudiness will
allow temperatures to drop further. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop over the mountains Wednesday, and by Friday night into
Saturday, much of the Borderland will see a risk of thunderstorms.
The storms could produce heavy rain and flooding Friday night and
Saturday, before diminishing on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like one more day of oppressive heat before falling back to
normal, and then by the weekend well below normal, compliments of
Bud. WV imagery showing upper high now over eastern New Mexico and
the Texas Panhandle and will continue to slowly drift east as
Pacific trough translates east. In the short term very hot
conditions continuing, with Heat Advisory continuing into this
evening for El Paso County.

Models continue to show some antecedent tropical moisture advecting
into the area Wednesday and Thursday. This will do two things:
gradually bringing a risk of thunderstorms back--mainly over the
mountains; and also allowing temperatures to slowly sink back to
near normal. Thunderstorm risk should be limited mainly to
mountains, where orographic lift will help, and the western zones
where the upper high cap is weaker.

By Friday night, the remains of Bud will begin streaming over
eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. POPs will increase
accordingly and by Saturday morning, most of the CWA will see a
chance of thunderstorms. The prime window for heavy rain looks to
be Friday night through Saturday evening. GFS is showing trends of
a narrow moisture band, similar to the ECMWF. PWs of 1.2-1.6
inches are still forecast so flood potential still exists
Saturday. Both GFS and ECMWF showing similar total rainfall
amounts, with max bullseye Hidalgo and Grant Counties and
secondarymax over the eastern zones east of the Rio Grande
Valley. Both show a min rainfall total over the middle zones. GFS
MOS has desert highs in the upper 70s by Saturday, but will keep
those highs in the mid 80s for now. Upper 70s would be quite a
change for the area.

Pacific trough finally pushes through mid day Sunday, ending the
thunderstorms and allowing clearing skies. Some disagreement
between GFS/ECMWF after Sunday, with ECMWF keeping drier solution,
while GFS brings back door front and moisture/rain back in by
Tuesday. For now will go with ECMWF solution late.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 13/00Z-14/00Z...
P6SM FEW150 SCT-BKN200-250 through 18Z then FEW-SCT090-110 SCT-
BKN200-250. Isolated to scattered 1-3SM TSRA BKN050-070 over
Sacramento Mountains after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will be moving into the region overnight and make it to
about the Rio Grande Valley which will help with overnight
recoveries. The moisture will be enough to fire some mainly mountain
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Going into Friday, the
moisture will start to get deeper, especially over western zones as
moisture from Hurricane Bud starts to  make it`s way north.
Temperatures will be cooling slowly through the remainder of the
week, but as the best moisture moves in for the weekend, expect
highs to be near or even below normal with a good chance of wetting
rains across the region. Winds do not look to be a big concern
through Thursday, but as the Hurricane remnants move in late Friday,
winds could get gusty but humidities will be well above 15 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 76 101  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           70  97  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              70 100  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              68  98  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft              49  78  47  75 /   0  30  20  30
Truth or Consequences   69 100  70  95 /   0   0  20  10
Silver City             61  95  62  92 /   0  20  20  20
Deming                  61 100  63  97 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               63  99  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro      74 100  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               68 100  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            74 101  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              66  97  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  70 100  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            72 100  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          72 100  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           62 100  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   63 100  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                64 102  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               73 100  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 55  85  52  84 /   0  30  20  20
Mescalero               53  86  51  84 /   0  30  20  30
Timberon                51  85  49  81 /   0  30  10  20
Winston                 56  95  55  89 /   0  20  20  30
Hillsboro               64  98  61  94 /   0  10  20  20
Spaceport               61  99  60  96 /   0   0  20   0
Lake Roberts            46  96  49  89 /   0  20  20  30
Hurley                  61  96  62  93 /   0  10  20  20
Cliff                   44  99  46  96 /   0  10  20  20
Mule Creek              45  99  47  95 /   0  10  20  20
Faywood                 64  98  64  93 /   0  10  20  20
Animas                  66 101  65  96 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                 63 101  65  97 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells          66 100  65  96 /   0   0  10  20
Cloverdale              63  98  62  93 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-419.

&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz


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