000
FXUS64 KEPZ 141105
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
505 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances will remain focused over the Gila Region
today, as well as parts of far southwestern New Mexico, and
perhaps the Sacramento Mountains. While a stray shower or
thunderstorm in the lowlands cannot be ruled out, most low
elevation areas will remain dry, sunny, and hot today.
Temperatures will continue to climb slightly through Tuesday,
after which a slight increase in available moisture will lead to
an equally slight increase in thunderstorm coverage. Better
moisture may seep into the area from Mexico late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains along the New Mexico-Colorado state
line this morning. Northeast to easterly flow aloft continues to
bring in some drier air in the mid-levels over eastern portions of
the CWA, but recycled moisture is also circulating around the
ridge, and PW values remain around 0.90 to 1.00 inch over most
areas outside of Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

A weak disturbance embedded in the mid-level easterlies managed to
pop off a few light convective showers over the Rincon and upper
Mesilla Valleys over the past couple of hours, but these showers
have about dissipated just as they were crossing into Luna
County.

The NAM and GFS both suggest the better moisture will remain west
of the Rio Grande today, with warmer mid-level air seeping in over
areas east of the Rio Grande (500 mb temps -4 to -5C over Hudspeth
County, around -6C over SW New Mexico). As a result, very weak
instability and significant CIN will exist over the far eastern
portions of the CWA. CAMs models, including the HRRR and NSSL WRF
suggest convection, much like yesterday, will be focused over the
Gila Region, and the Sacramento Mountains to a lesser extent.
Still can`t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm
("thundershower") downstream of the Sacramento Mountains,
including over the Tularosa Basin southward towards El Paso.

The upper ridge looks to shift southwestward towards eastern
Arizona on Monday, with recycled moisture getting pulled a little
further south. Increasing heights will favor warmer temperatures,
and highs may approach the 103 to 105 range by Tuesday in lowland
areas below 4,000 feet. Expect to see very gradual increases in
thunderstorm activity Monday into Tuesday, but still focused over
the higher terrain with isolated coverage in the lowlands. Any
storms, particularly on Tuesday, will be very slow movers as the
upper ridge will be parked overhead, and steering flow almost
non-existent. Despite the ridge being overhead, there`s slightly
better chance at lowland storms Tuesday evening, as the ridge
looks to weaken to about 592 dm, and mid-level temperatures are
not terribly warm (around -6C at 500 mb).

Later in the week, the ridge looks to refocus over the
southeastern U.S., with a weaker western extension reaching across
the Texas Panhandle into central NM and AZ. Enhanced easterlies
south of the border, with some embedded disturbances, look to lead
to an uptick in thunderstorms over the Sierra Madres, with some
moisture seeping into SE Arizona and SW New Mexico. This looks to
bring better thunderstorm coverage to the area Wednesday onwards,
or at least more evenly distributed across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light east to southeast winds will continue today, along with
scattered thunderstorms mainly focused over the higher terrain and
far southwestern New Mexico. A stray thunderstorm dropping towards
ELP from the Sacramento Mountains cannot be completely ruled out,
but much like yesterday, probabilities look to be 10 percent at
best. Elsewhere, just expect a few high-based cu or towering cu in
the afternoon, with convection remaining away from TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper ridge remains parked over the NM/CO border this morning,
with modest amounts of low and mid-level moisture remaining over
most of southern New Mexico, and a little drier east of the Rio
Grande. Limited instability will lead to widely scattered to
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly focused over the
Gila Region and NM Bootheel, and the Sacramento Mountains to a
lesser extent. Temps will remain elevated and Min RH values will
drop to or below 15 percent across the lowlands. A more typical
monsoon flow pattern will return by the middle of next week with
cooler temps and improved chances for wetting precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                101  75 102  77 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           98  67  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              99  71  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              98  70 100  73 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft              77  55  78  57 /  30  20  20  10
Truth or Consequences   99  72  99  73 /   0  10  20  20
Silver City             91  66  93  67 /  40  20  40  10
Deming                  99  69 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               99  70  99  71 /  10  20  10  10
West El Paso Metro     100  76 101  78 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City              100  69 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           102  74 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              95  71  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                 101  74 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa           100  72 100  74 /   0  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          99  74 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
Jornada Range          100  70  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                  100  70 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus               100  72 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               98  71  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                 84  58  87  61 /  20  10  20  10
Mescalero               84  58  87  60 /  30  20  20  10
Timberon                83  57  86  59 /  20  10  20   0
Winston                 91  60  91  61 /  30  20  40  20
Hillsboro               96  67  97  68 /  20  10  30  20
Spaceport               98  69  99  70 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts            90  58  93  59 /  40  20  50  20
Hurley                  93  65  95  66 /  30  20  30  10
Cliff                   97  62 100  63 /  30  20  40  10
Mule Creek              96  67  96  68 /  30  20  30  10
Faywood                 94  67  94  68 /  20  20  30  10
Animas                 100  70 101  72 /  10  20  10  20
Hachita                 99  69  99  70 /   0  10   0  10
Antelope Wells          98  69  99  71 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale              94  69  94  70 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman