762
FXUS64 KEPZ 161028
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
428 AM MDT Thu May 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to windy conditions will dominate much of the next seven
day forecast. Currently a Pacific upper low move over northern
California this afternoon and then to the central Rocky Mountains
Friday night. This will increase the winds into the breezy
category today and then into the windy category Friday, likely
accompanied by patchy blowing dust. Very warm temperatures today
will cool on Friday back to near normal as Pacific cool front
moves through. Next Pacific upper low will move into Arizona
Monday. This will bring another bout of strong winds and patchy
blowing dust to the Borderland. A few showers are also possible on
Monday. Dry west flow will continue Tuesday and Wednesday and
afternoon breezes will also likely continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick check of the calendar says it`s mid May, but the weather
pattern for this forecast period looks more like March--with winds
being the main story. Currently large Pacific upper low just off
the northern California coast continues to drift slowly east.
Associated cool front just moving onshore of northern California.
Extending ahead of the system over the Great Basin down to western
Arizona is an upper trough or possible an older front mostly
aloft. This should help with increasing higher clouds later today.
Increasing southwest flow aloft will help develop lee side
cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado this afternoon. Surface trough
will extend back south but instead of forming over eastern New
Mexico, it will form further west on the strengthening boundary
between dry and moist air over the far eastern CWA. This should
alleviate strong winds in the east, but expect breezy to windy
conditions west of the Rio Grande Valley as gradient has more room
to strengthen. Aforementioned moisture boundary could fire off a
thunderstorm over far eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties this
afternoon. Lead upper trough rotates through tonight briefly
clearing the skies. Main upper low moves over the Great Basin
Friday afternoon with surface front moving through the area by
late afternoon. This will increase winds into windy category
(20-30 mph) and allow about 7-10 degrees of cooling. The dry and
windy conditions will likely need Red Flag Warnings for at least
the lowland zones.

Saturday and Sunday...upper low exits to the east as short wave
ridge moves over the area Saturday. Winds will diminish some both
days with the relaxation of winds aloft. Large swath of high level
moisture will begin moving into area Saturday night. Southwest
winds aloft will begin increasing again later Sunday as next
Pacific upper low approaches.

Monday...said low approaches the Four Corners Monday afternoon.
Lee cyclogenesis forms over northern Texas Panhandle (better
location for strong winds). Winds should increase well into windy
category and could flirt with low end Wind Advisory. Both
GFS/ECMWF a bit further south with upper low so kept mountain POPs
in Monday/Monday night and also put brief lowland POPs in Monday
evening.

Tuesday through Thursday...Broad southwest flow aloft persists.
Afternoons each day look to get up to breezy category. Previous
several runs had shown Wednesday with significant winds but latest
run no longer supporting this.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/12Z-17/12Z...
VFR conditions with SCT-BKN250 skies expected through the period.
Surface winds generally out of the southeast around 5KT through 17Z
then becoming 220-25015G25KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today marks the start of a more active pattern in advance of an
approaching upper level trough. Southwesterly flow will increase
giving us breezy winds of 15-20 mph this afternoon, with slightly
stronger winds west of the Rio Grande. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected as relative humidities drop into the lower
teens. Westerly winds increase even more on Friday with most of the
lowlands reaching critical conditions. The breezy to windy
conditions will continue through the weekend and into early next
week. Monday looks to be another particularly windy day with
critical conditions possible once again ahead of the next weather
system. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible Monday afternoon. Temperatures will peak today in the 90s
across the lowlands before cooling to slightly below normal for most
of the forecast period. Vent rates will be very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 95  66  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           94  61  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              94  59  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              96  59  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              70  42  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   94  57  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             84  54  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  94  56  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               92  54  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      96  64  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               96  61  87  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            99  64  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              92  63  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  96  64  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            94  60  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          95  66  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           94  56  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   95  57  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                96  61  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               95  60  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 81  50  70  43 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               81  48  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                79  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 85  47  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               91  54  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               93  55  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            84  49  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  86  53  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   92  42  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              89  42  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 85  56  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  94  53  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 94  53  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          93  54  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              87  55  73  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Pegram