000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161151
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
551 AM MDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and cloudy weather will continue for several more days as
brisk east surface winds continue. High temperatures today through
through Thursday A disturbance aloft will move across the
Borderland today, creating a slight chance of showers. East winds
will slacken some on Friday and Saturday and with some sunshine,
temperatures will warm up, but still remain below normal. An upper
low will approach the area Sunday and Monday with another chance
of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large picture showing the omega blocking high pressure system
persisting over the eastern Pacific. Eastern upper low of the
system continues to churn over western Arizona and will only very
slowly lift to the north on Wednesday. At the surface, cold
airmass remains in place along with considerable stratus and low
stratocumulus. Models show much of this cloudiness continuing into
Wednesday. Brisk east winds, especially just west of mountains,
will continue through tonight and likely into Wednesday, but
should remain below advisory criteria in these areas. The upper
low will rotate a short wave across the CWA this afternoon, so low
POPs in place for this. Sacramento Mountains could see some light
snow accumulations through tonight, mainly above 8000 ft. Some
dry slotting into the southern zones Wednesday behind the
shortwave so limited POPs to the northern zones. Models have been
showing tropical moisture tap moving up over the eastern zones
Wednesday night and Thursday, but have backed off some from
previous runs. Will still increase POPs some for this period in
the east though.

Friday and Saturday...looks like maybe a brief break in the
chilly weather, with a return back to early fall type weather.
Upper low is now east of the area as we watch a another developing
upper low off the southern California coast. This should allow
drier mid/high level flow and some sunshine for the area.
Temperatures will warm nicely, around 20 degrees warmer than
today. However this will still be around 10 degrees below normal.

Sunday into early next week...series of upper lows off the
California coast march toward the area Sunday afternoon and Monday
afternoon, bringing POPs back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/12Z-17/12Z...
Widespread BKN-OVC070 few layers to 120. After 15Z...Isold -SHRA
BKN060 developing, mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley.
Additionally over the Sacramento Mountains...Patchy CIGS blo 010
and visby 1-3SM -FZFG and -ZL/-SN. East winds 10-15 kts, with
gusts to 30 kts along west slopes of mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler air is here to stay for the next several days with
just a gradual warm-up expected toward Friday/Saturday. Temperatures
of 20 to 25 degrees below normal will keep relative humidities
above 40-50 percent all week long. A disturbance moving east
acrossthe fire zones today could bring a few light rain showers,
with some light snow possible over the Sacramento Mountain zones.
Winds will remain out of the east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph,
with local gusts to 35 mph before decreasing. Mixing heights will
remain fairly low which will keep vent rates poor to fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 49  42  52  45 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           43  39  45  39 /  20   0  10  30
Las Cruces              49  40  51  43 /  10  10   0   0
Alamogordo              51  39  54  44 /  20  10  10  20
Cloudcroft              38  28  40  31 /  30  20  10  30
Truth or Consequences   50  40  51  43 /  20  20  20  30
Silver City             44  37  46  39 /  30  20  20   0
Deming                  49  40  50  43 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg               50  40  52  43 /  30  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro      47  43  51  45 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City               47  37  50  41 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Hancock            48  42  52  43 /  10   0   0  30
Loma Linda              43  37  45  38 /  10   0   0  30
Fabens                  49  41  52  43 /  10   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            49  41  52  44 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          49  42  51  45 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range           49  42  52  44 /  10  20  10  20
Hatch                   50  41  52  44 /  20  20  10  20
Columbus                49  41  51  44 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande               49  41  52  44 /  10  10  10  20
Mayhill                 36  28  39  32 /  30  20  10  30
Mescalero               41  31  42  32 /  30  20  10  30
Timberon                39  31  41  33 /  30  20  10  30
Winston                 44  33  43  34 /  30  20  20  30
Hillsboro               47  37  48  39 /  30  20  20  20
Spaceport               50  40  51  42 /  10  20  10  20
Lake Roberts            46  33  47  35 /  30  20  20  20
Hurley                  45  37  46  39 /  30  20  10   0
Cliff                   54  37  52  39 /  30  20  20   0
Mule Creek              52  37  53  40 /  30  20  20   0
Faywood                 45  38  46  40 /  30  20  10   0
Animas                  49  40  52  42 /  30  10   0   0
Hachita                 47  39  50  41 /  30   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          48  38  52  41 /  30   0   0   0
Cloverdale              46  37  50  40 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner