000
FXUS64 KEPZ 121116
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
516 AM MDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see one more day of slightly below average temperatures
today along with a slight chance for rain. Our rain chances on
Monday will be confined to area mountains, then for the rest of
the coming week we will see our afternoon high temperatures
running a few degrees above average with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our very odd monsoon weather pattern for this year will continue
for most of the coming week. Upper level high pressure that should
be well to our east, currently sits over the Great Basin to our
northwest and will slowly be drifting in our directions over the
next couple of days. Then just to our east is a weak area of upper
level low pressure. This low helped kick off our thunderstorm
activity yesterday and it will continue to be close enough today to
help keep at least a slight chance of rain in the forecast. On
Monday the upper level ridge will drift a little closer and the
upper level trough will drift a little further away, so we will
see lower rain chances on Monday and again on Tuesday. For the
middle part of the coming week the upper level ridge will be
centered along the NM/AZ border. There will be a decent amount of
moisture trapped under the ridge and that will help fuel scattered
mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each day. For the end
of the week the upper level ridge will begin to retreat to the
west, while an upper level trough moves up from the south into
Arizona. The circulation around the trough will help bring in
some moisture from the south so that by the end of the week into
next weekend, we will see an uptick in our rain chances.

We will get to enjoy a day or two more of below average
temperatures with highs today running around 3 to 5 degrees below
average and on Monday the will be running 1 to 2 degrees below
average. As the upper level ridge settles into the region we will
see our afternoon highs jump a few degrees above average for the
middle part of coming week before settling closer to average for
the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 12/12Z-13/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our skies will
slowly continue to clear this morning, but by afternoon we will
see build-ups develop again. We will see less rain chances today
than yesterday, with the best chances for rain in area mountains.
This morning we will be FEW-SCT120-250, but by the afternoon we
could see some ceilings develop of SCT-BKN120. We may see some
brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities in and near thunderstorms.
Storm motion this afternoon will be slowly to the south or
southwest.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level high pressure to our northwest will limit but not
eliminate our rain chances today through Tuesday. Best chances for
rain will continue to be in area mountains and west of the Rio
Grande through Tuesday. Our rain chances will increase for the end
of the coming week as the upper level ridge moves off to our
west. Neither winds nor min RH`s will reach critical levels over
the next 7 days. The one exception will be strong outflow winds
that will be possible with our isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 87  68  92  72 /  20  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           81  61  88  65 /  30  20   0   0
Las Cruces              87  64  90  68 /  10  10   0   0
Alamogordo              85  63  89  68 /  20  10  20  10
Cloudcroft              64  48  68  53 /  40  20  20  20
Truth or Consequences   86  65  90  68 /  10  10  20  20
Silver City             79  57  83  61 /  30  20  30  20
Deming                  87  63  91  66 /  10  10   0   0
Lordsburg               87  63  90  67 /  20  10  20  20
West El Paso Metro      87  67  92  72 /  20  10   0   0
Dell City               85  63  91  67 /  30  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            86  64  92  68 /  20  20   0   0
Loma Linda              82  62  87  66 /  20  10   0   0
Fabens                  87  65  92  68 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            87  66  91  70 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          86  65  90  68 /  10  10   0   0
Jornada Range           87  64  91  67 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                   88  64  91  67 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus                88  65  91  68 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande               86  65  90  70 /  20  10   0   0
Mayhill                 71  53  76  57 /  40  20  20  20
Mescalero               73  53  78  59 /  40  20  20  20
Timberon                71  53  76  57 /  40  20  20  20
Winston                 78  55  83  59 /  30  20  30  20
Hillsboro               84  60  88  64 /  20  10  20  20
Spaceport               86  63  90  67 /  10  10  20  10
Lake Roberts            78  53  82  57 /  30  20  30  30
Hurley                  82  58  85  63 /  10  10  20  10
Cliff                   84  59  87  62 /  20  20  30  30
Mule Creek              82  60  85  63 /  30  20  30  30
Faywood                 82  59  86  64 /  20  20  10  10
Animas                  88  63  91  67 /  20  10  20  20
Hachita                 87  62  90  66 /  10  10  20  10
Antelope Wells          86  62  88  65 /  20  10  20  20
Cloverdale              83  60  85  61 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice