000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302351
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
551 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

AVIATION...00z TAF CYCLE
High presure will bring VFR conditions with skies SKC-SCT100.
Surface winds mostly from 5-15KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern.
Slight chances of rain will be possible in area mountains during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Convective activity is
expected to be spotty for the most part with generally light
rainfall accumulations. The upper high appears to break down late
next week bringing slight storm chances for the lowlands.
Temperatures will continue to increase with well above normal
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&
29

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday...
Southeast flow at the surface will continue tonight across the area.
Winds will regress most areas a few hours after sunset, but western
slope locations, like west El Paso, will continue with mild breezes
at times. Otherwise, conditions will be clear to mainly clear with
mild overnight temperatures.

Moisture remains pretty similar on Sunday compared to Saturday with
dewpoints mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Moisture and upslope
flow will be just enough for more cumulus buildup on the higher
terrain by midday, and perhaps a very isolated shower/thunderstorm
through the afternoon. Upper ridge will put a cap on convection
across the lowlands with no activity expected. Spatial coverage will
be minimal across mountain areas with the main threat being iso LGT.
In addition, another afternoon of mild breezes is expected across
the area with winds a general 10-20 up to 25 mph and temperatures in
the low to mid 90s.

&&
35

.LONG TERM...
Upper high will be the main weather scenario for the upcoming
week. Even though, a southeasterly flow near the surface will
keep an influx of moisture to the region with surface dewpoints
generally above 35 F and precipitable water over half an inch.
There is no significant lifting mechanism to generate storms in
the lowlands. Thus, most of the rain chances will be due to
orographic effects. Thus, the mountain areas are the focus for
rain this week. However, instability remains marginal with CAPE
below 300 J/kg. Thus, any thunderstorm that develops in the region
is not expected to be strong due to the aforementioned reasons,
plus the upper high will be inhibiting the convection too.

A warming trend continues over the next few days. GFS and ECMWF
850mb temperatures are around 31 C. Therefore, max temperatures
near El Paso and adjacent areas will be around 100 degrees by
Wednesday. Temperatures could be even higher on Thursday, but
increasing cloud coverage in the area may actually cap that
situation. Towards next weekend temperatures should drop a few
degrees, but remain above normal.

Model differences continue for the second part of the week. The
GFS persists in having a progressive pattern with the closed low
over southern CA becoming an open wave, and moving quickly
towards the Four Corners area. However, the ECMWF continues to
show an omega block with the upper high right over us which could
lead to even higher temperatures for the second half of the week.
The EC scenario has the block breaking down towards the weekend
allowing the closed low to be absorbed by another trough swinging
down from the Pac NW. Next weekend the models try to align again,
but the GFS continues to show a wetter solution in areas east of
our CWA compared to the EC.

&&

29

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mildly breezy winds anticipated on Sunday with temperatures
generally near average. Min RH will be between 10 and 15% with
higher values across the higher terrain. A very isolated
shower/thunderstorm will be possible midday through the afternoon as
well (across area mtns consequent of higher moisture/humidity) with
mainly very good ventilation most locations.

Although robust mixing heights continue Monday through Wednesday of
next week, transport winds will remain light stifling ventilation to
fair to good most lowland locations, with a few areas near very good
across the higher terrain and the AZ/NM border. Moisture increases
as well with continued southeasterly sfc winds, mainly Monday and
Tuesday, with min RH`s generally greater than 15%. Slightly breezier
conditions and an increase in ventilation will be possible by the
end of next week in addition to min RH`s near 15% across the
lowlands and higher values in area mountains. As of now,
anticipating slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon across area mountains with little across the
lowlands. A warming trend is expected Wednesday-Thursday with well
above average temperatures possible.

&&
35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 68  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           58  86  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              63  91  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              62  90  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              47  71  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences   63  92  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             60  87  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  62  93  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               63  94  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      68  93  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               57  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            61  94  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              62  87  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  65  94  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            63  92  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          69  92  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           62  92  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   61  93  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                63  94  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               63  92  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 50  81  49  78 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero               50  81  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                47  79  47  76 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                 51  86  51  85 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               57  92  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               59  92  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            53  89  52  86 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  58  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   53  94  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              60  92  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 57  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  59  96  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 57  94  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          59  95  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              61  91  59  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05-Rogash/31/05