Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

No significant changes to the previous forecast, fire weather
concerns continue to be the main focus over the next several days.

This afternoon, temperatures are warming nicely with gusty SW winds
across much of the area although temps have been somewhat slow to
warm with some mid and high clouds moving overhead. An upper trough
is currently swinging through the Desert Southwest as a decent 500mb
jet rounds the base of the trough. Strong winds aloft will continue
to aid in increased winds in the Guadalupe Mountains as well as
portions of Southeast New Mexico and western portions of West Texas.
A High Wind Warning remains for the Guadalupe Mountains with a Wind
Advisory for SE NM south through the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau. A deepening surface low across eastern CO continues to draw
low level moisture into eastern zones this afternoon but dewpoints
only in the 40s so still fairly dry. Weak upper forcing associated
with the upper trough may be enough to generate a few thunderstorms
through this evening, mainly across the Trans Pecos and eastward
where we are already starting to see some light radar returns.
Due to the dry sub-cloud layer, gusty winds and lightning will be
the main concerns.

By Friday morning, the dryline quickly mixes east as the
aforementioned upper trough rotates into the Central Plains. Drier
air will move in, shunting moisture well east of the forecast area.
Temperatures will once again climb up into the 70s and 80s with only
elevated fire weather concerns given weaker wind speeds. Similar
conditions expected Saturday with just a slight increase in
moisture. Another upper trough will drop through the Desert SW
Sunday, this one digging farther south closer to our area. Sunday
looks to be the best fire weather day with widespread critical fire
weather conditions expected as winds increase significantly across
the region with the approach of the trough. High winds are likely in
the Guadalupe Mountains and at least Wind Advisory criteria, if not
high wind, elsewhere. A weak front arrives Monday, cooling
temperatures by a few degrees through Tuesday then conditions begin
to warm again. Otherwise, the majority of the forecast remains dry.


Critical fire wx conditions are materializing across SE NM where
RFTIs are at times a 5 - Critical. Still very dry Fri across most
all areas but much less wind and still looks like a RFD type day,
including Sat. Concerns continue to escalate for Sunday with what
will probably be the greatest threat of Significant Fires this
season. Fuels will be the driest they have been and wind (probably
strong) will combined to result in widespread critical (RFTI 6)
possibly extreme conditions (RFTI 7). This with good model agreement
we will opt issue a long lead fire wx watch. Forecast ERC-G are
above the 70th-90th percentile in most areas and 90th or greater
across most of the PB.


Big Spring                     49  79  47  79 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  86  59  88 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  80  54  80 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  65  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          41  71  43  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  78  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  51  78 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           45  81  49  79 /  10   0   0   0


NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Southeast

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.



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