288
FXUS63 KTOP 240806
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (40-60%) for storms continue this morning with a couple of
  strong to severe storms possible.

- Additional storms, some severe, impact the area Saturday evening
  into early Sunday.

- Trending drier Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s and
  80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A closed upper low is ejecting across the northern Plains this
morning with a line of convection extending south from eastern
Nebraska into north central Kansas. Much of the severe weather
threat has remained north of the Kansas/Nebraska state line where
the better large-scale ascent resides. A cold front will continue to
push through the area this morning which could spark additional
convection across the CWA. CAMs show a mixed signal in coverage and
intensity of storms and WoFs has scattered convection this far south
with a low (10% or less) probability of any severe weather. MLCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg and 20-30kts of effective shear supports at least
some severe potential with any storms that do develop before the
risk pushes east of the area by 8am. Skies will clear behind the
front with northwest winds keeping highs in the 70s.

Another trough approaches on Saturday with increasing southerly low-
level flow lifting a warm front back north through the day as a
dryline sets up across western and central Kansas. The ejection of
the aforementioned trough has slowed from previous model runs which
could delay convective initiation until the evening hours. Still
can`t rule out an isolate storm during the late afternoon into the
evening, but capping and lack of forcing should largely preclude
convective development. Models vary in northern progression of the
warm front by 7pm Saturday, but a strengthening low-level jet during
the evening and overnight hours will shunt the warm front into
Nebraska and bring mid to upper 60s dewpoints into northeast Kansas.
Initially isolated supercells across central Kansas will tend to
grow upscale as the trough ejects across the region and the low-
level jet intensifies. Evolution into an east-northeast propagating
MCS appears favorable along the nose of the intensifying low-level
jet which would bring these storms into northeast Kansas during the
late evening into the overnight hours. Any discrete storms bring the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two
before damaging winds becoming the main hazard once convection
evolves into a linear mode. Curved low-level hodographs suggest a
tornado or two even after the transition to a linear mode. Exact
location of these storms remains uncertain given variability in
position of the low-level jet and the track of the surface low
across the area.

A cold front moves through Sunday morning, but another shortwave
diving southeast across the Plains leads to continued chances (20-
40%) of showers and storms through the day, mainly north of
Interstate 70. Dry conditions return for Monday and Tuesday as
ensembles favor an eastern trough, western ridge pattern setting up
through midweek. A couple of passing perturbations lead to more
chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

MVFR cigs have developed and will likely remain in place through
much of the overnight period, although periods of VFR cigs are
possible. Uncertainty remains in coverage of storms overnight,
but think the chances are high enough to continue a narrow
window of -TSRA before the front moves through by 13-14z. Skies
begin to clear after the front passes with winds staying gusty
from the northwest through late this afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan