000
FXUS63 KTOP 120446
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THIS AFTERNOON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 200 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 400 PM. CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NE
BORDER WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS FROM WESTERN CO...ACROSS NE...THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY. A LEE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ACROSS KS WILL PREVENT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH WILL
BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS IA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DRY AND WILL ONLY CAUSE THE SURFACE WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 90S SOUTH OF I-70...WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL STILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK LOOK
TO BE ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM
OF THE RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MID WEEK AND WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLATTENING RIDGE WILL
HELP TO PUSH THE SHORTWAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING IN INCREASING POP
CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS FROM ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES. OTHER MODELS SHOW ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
FOCUSED PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA LINE...SO HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR ALONG THE STATE BORDER. WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS TO THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN KANSAS WITH MIDDLE 90S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KANSAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME...THE RIDGE
WEAKENS ALMOST ENTIRELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WAVE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN A BIT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S BY
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 KTS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AT MHK AROUND 14Z WITH TOP
AND FOE AROUND 19Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...53