Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 152339
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
539 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Area of rain and freezing rain is currently moving through northeast
and north central KS. Models continue to warm temperatures this
afternoon and early evening, but are a little aggressive. Given the
light easterly winds limiting the strength of cold advection
temperatures are gradually warming from southeast to northwest. Where
temperatures are above freezing the rain has pretty much come to an
end besides some drizzle and maybe an isolated shower. Where
temperatures are below freezing minor ice accumulation is taking
place, but the ice:liquid ratios are fairly low. This could be
contributed to a lack of wind at surface to help remove the latent
heat, as well as the small amount of solar insolation hitting the
elevated objects. Regardless it appears that icing amounts will
generally be lower than the official forecast. This evening the
temperatures cool a degree or two as additional rain moves in from
southern KS. Still believe the icing efficiency will not improve
much. Have continued with the ice storm warning as there may be
isolated locations that continue to see travel impacts to untreated
roads. The chances of any power outages due to ice is low given the
accumulations will probably not reach the amount needed to cause
damages. The only exception would be far north central KS where
temperatures hover around freezing through tomorrow morning. As the
precipitation type turns over to rain for most locations tonight the
main upper level low pressure lifts over the area. As the lift and
moisture increases over eastern KS most locations should receive a
decent rainfall with amounts between 0.50" to 1.00". Again, most of
this will fall in the form of plan old rain. As the upper low tracks
overhead a dry slot moves in from the southwest tomorrow afternoon.
This will end most of the precipitation besides maybe some drizzle
that lasts into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

In the mid-range forecast period beginning Tuesday, split flow
regime takes hold over the Central CONUS with ridging building over
the Central Plains into mid week.  This will allow for very pleasant
conditions weather wise for mid-January.  An active western trough
regime digs over the western CONUS into Thursday and brings a chance
for liquid precipitation on Friday for northeast and east central
Kansas.  Varying strength of the upper low with the ECMWF deepening
an open wave and closing off and upper low as divergent area of the
longer wave trough advects over the region.  Low quality in moisture
leads to low chance POPs.  Southern Branch of the Polar Jet
strengthens over the Southern CONUS probably leads to a track of
late weekend weather system further south of the area.  But this is
the GFS depiction.  ECMWF still trends some energy to the north
putting northeast Kansas in an area where some wrap around
moisture could cause little concern with a period of mixed precip.
At this time, neither system looks to be too big of a weather
maker for northeast or east central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The area will remain within a strong warm air advection pattern in
the low levels as long as the surface low remains to the south. So
an improvement to flight conditions is not anticipated through the
night with IFR and LIFR conditions persisting. Fortunately temps
have crawled above freezing and should continue a very gradual
trend warmer through the night so FZRA should be over for TOP, MHK
and FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for KSZ008>012-020-021-
034.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ022>024-035-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters


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