


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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605 FXUS63 KTOP 111905 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 205 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms develop (20-50%) this afternoon and evening, mainly across east-central Kansas. A few severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard. - Relatively cooler this weekend with building heat again to start the new work week. - Low chances for showers/storms this weekend. Next best chance (30-40%) for rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a shortwave over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with another perturbation across the Dakotas. The surface low has progressed into far northwest Missouri with the attendant cold front stretching from near Hiawatha southwest towards Wichita. CIN is eroding ahead of the front in an airmass featuring 3000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE and the cumulus field along the front is becoming a bit more organized. With the better upper-level forcing displaced to the north, convergence along the front will be the main instigator of convection this afternoon and evening. Surface convergence is overall weak across the forecast area, but does increase slightly as the surface front moves into east-central Kansas later this afternoon into the evening. Overall, the forecast has remains on track with scattered storms expected to develop between 2-5 PM, push southeast through the afternoon/evening, and exit the area before midnight. Weak shear will largely limit the intensity of storms, but inverted-V soundings and DCAPE of 1000-1300 J/kg will support strong to damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. PWATs of 1.6-1.8" favor brief heavy rainfall with any storms as well, but the flooding risk is low. The Northern Plains shortwave will push a secondary cold front into the area overnight. Showers and storms along this boundary are expected to largely dissipate as they approach the area, but they could persist long enough to bring some rain to north central Kansas. Cooler air works into the region for Saturday as temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s under a mix of clouds and sun. A piece of energy across the Southern Plains lifts back north Saturday afternoon and evening and could spark some showers and storms south of Interstate 70. Severe weather is not expected, but any storms that do impact the area could produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. The mid-level pattern becomes disorganized next week with the mid- level ridge trying to build over the Plains with waves of energy floating around the region as well. Dry conditions are favored Sunday into Monday, but can`t rule out a pop-up shower or storm in an uncapped summer airmass. A more organized shortwave moves through Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a stronger wave that pushes a cold front towards the area Wednesday into Thursday. Models differ in timing of the front, but the passage of the boundary will bring the next best chances for precipitation along with some cooler air with highs in the 80s possible late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions expected. A cold front will move through terminals this afternoon/evening with winds becoming northwesterly behind the front and eventually becoming northerly by Saturday morning. A few storms could develop near KTOP/KFOE between 20-23z, but confidence is low in direct impacts to terminals. Maintained a PROB30 group to cover this potential. There is a low chance for some MVFR cigs to build into the area Saturday morning, but better chances are east of terminals and have kept out mention. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan