Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 052152

352 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Expecting VFR conditions for the entire forecast period. Model
soundings picking up on some low level moisture that hinted at
some MVFR CIGs for the early morning hours on Friday, but for now
will keep the VFR conditions in the forecast as the saturation
seemed overdone and spanned a thin layer. Also LLWS was
investigated, especially in the 08z to 13z with winds being
slightly more out of the west and around 40 knots around 1000
feet, but with surface winds out of the S/SW around 7-10 knots
kept that out of the forecast as well.




SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.