235
FXUS63 KTOP 290533
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1233 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very small chance (10-15%) for pop up shower/storm this afternoon.

- Scattered storms develop early Sunday morning with increased
  chances for storms by the late afternoon and evening hours
  Sunday. Storms in the late afternoon/evening could be strong
  with damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and small hail as
  the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Muggy, hot conditions have once again set up across the region this
afternoon with temperatures this afternoon creeping into the upper
80s and low 90s. Lingering stratus across east-central KS has kept
temperatures from climbing very quickly and should see temperatures
top out in the mid to upper 80s. Synoptic features have not changed
much across the region with weak waves noted over Nebraska and
Missouri, and stronger zonal flow across the northern Plains with
weak ridging over the southern Plains. For the remainder of the
afternoon, scattered cu should continue to persist across the area
as we become uncapped. Cannot rule out a storm or two developing
along an area of mesoscale convergence, but overall forcing for deep
convection remains very weak and limited. Satellite observations of
the scattering morning stratus also shows very flat characteristics,
indicating some stability still residing over parts of eastern KS.
If a storm can develop, it should stay sub-severe but cannot rule
out some very heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Overnight tonight and into Sunday morning, low-level response from a
deepening lee cyclone in the high Plains should increase isentropic
ascent over eastern Kansas. While model soundings depict a fairly
dry mixed later above the decoupled BL, lift could become strong
enough to force parcels high enough to tap into elevated instability
early Sunday morning. The best forcing seems to remain along the
nose of the LLJ and sets up across east-central KS by 3-7 AM Sunday.
Kept 20-30 PoPs to account for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Better chances for strong to severe convection will come later in
the afternoon and evening as a surface trough axis slides south and
east into the area, becoming a focal point for storm development.
Given the very moist airmass in place and high temperatures expected
to climb into the mid 90s, CAMs depict extreme levels of CAPE values
setting up in the warm sector by the afternoon. Cannot rule out
seeing CAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg by the afternoon, but some
lingering cloud cover from morning convection may limit these values
a touch. Either way, an advancing wave out of Nebraska will help to
steepen ML lapse rates a bit and should keep elevated CAPE values
very large. By the late afternoon and early evening, eroding CIN
across the area and convergence within the surface trough should
begin to generate convection; likely stretching from southwest
Kansas towards north-central and northeast Kansas. That said, better
ML forcing associated with the wave should reside across
northeastern KS/southeast NE, so expecting more coverage of storms to
stay closer to this area. As the surface trough dives south during
the evening, a strengthening LLJ, increasing deep shear within the
mid-level wave, and a theta-e gradient across eastern Kansas will
support MCS development. This should keep the main storm hazards to
damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall, but cannot rule out some
small hail as well. The anticipated MCS should dive south/southeast
following the theata-e and instability gradient overnight with
lingering stratiform rain lingering into early Monday morning.

By Monday and into mid next week, a slightly cooler air mass sets up
across the area with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s.
Afternoon conditions should feel a bit more tolerable as humidities
will be lower than what we have see the last week or so. Heat does
appear to build back in as we approach Independence day with mid
level heights increasing across the Plains and southerly flow
advecting in warm and moist air once again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Isentropic lift, with a strengthening low-level jet may lead to elevated
storms over eastern KS between 09Z and 15Z. Brief MVFR CIGs are
possible with any storms that develop this morning. There
should be a break in thunderstorm activity before additional
storm development is possible later in the afternoon. There are
mixed signals in the short-term models with respect to storm
evolution for the last half of the TAF period. With such low
confidence in the forecast, will keep only a prob30 mention for
now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Jones