219
FXUS63 KTOP 210448
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1148 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Stratus continues to wrap around behind the upper low as it
tracks out of north central Kansas and into Iowa over the next
several hours. As it does so, clouds will slowly lift northward
and break up. Westerly winds continue overnight with gusts
diminishing after sunset.

Overnight lows drop into the lower 40s across the area, as do the
dewpoints, and could see some patchy fog in low spots after the
recent days rainfall.  Not enough coverage in grids, and with clouds
lingering and some light winds remaining, not expecting enough
coverage for a mention in the forecast at this time.  Highs rise
toward 70 for Sunday with decreasing clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Embedded vort max translates through the mean flow Sunday night and
Monday while the upper low continues to spin over the Great Lakes
region. Elevated convection Monday morning progged by all recent
model runs would temper the severity of storms in the afternoon as a
cold front enters from the northwest. Assuming sufficient time for
sfc heating to occur that day, a few strong to severe storms may be
possible in the late afternoon with around 1500 J/KG of sfc based
cape and near 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Lingering showers may
carry over into Tuesday, otherwise cooler airmass over takes the
region through mid week with northerly winds and highs in the upper
60s.

On Thursday, southerly flow returns to the region pushing temps
closer to the normal into the 70s and 80s for the Memorial Day
Weekend. While extended model solutions still show much uncertainty
on precip chances next weekend, broad troughing over the inter
mountain west signals the possibility for off and on thunderstorms
next weekend as the upper trough lifts across the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

VFR conditions prevail the next 24hrs. Winds remain westerly and
increase to above 10kts sustained after 13Z time frame.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Drake