Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 020448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING IN THE EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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