Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 261143
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Surface high pressure centered over Iowa this morning at 07Z
extended southwest into much of Kansas with a frontal boundary over
Oklahoma. Some drier air was located over southern Nebraska into
northern Kansas with readings in the lower 60s to mid 60s. The
somewhat drier air will remain over the area through the day today
as the surface high gradually moves off to the east. Weak upper flow
will continue through today and tonight with the main westerlies
well north across Canada into the northern tier of states. Some
patchy morning fog is possible this morning in areas that received
rainfall yesterday as winds remain light and skies relatively clear.
Some cloud debris from decayed High Plains convection may move into
north central Kansas around sunrise. Further south some mid level
clouds will inhibit widespread fog across east central Kansas. Today
highs should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, the NAM continues to be the deeper and furthest south of
the models with a wave moving southeast across South Dakota and
Nebraska. The GFS/ECMWF and the GEM remain further north and less
amplified. The low level jet will be weak with speeds of 20 to 30
kts across western Kansas and western Nebraska. If thunderstorms
develop later tonight across northwest Nebraska and southern South
Dakota they may reach far northwest Kansas by sunrise Wednesday,
Although given weak forcing and moisture transport the storms may
fall apart before reaching north central Kansas. Some weak
isentropic lift in the 310K-315K layer over southeast Kansas may
develop some isolated showers and storms and will continue with a
small pop southeast of I-35. Lows tonight will range from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

By Wednesday, models show a shortwave developing over the Northern
Plains within the somewhat zonal flow across the northern U.S., with
a mid-level trough developing over the Great Lakes region by
Wednesday night. Expect much of the daytime hours to be dry across
the outlook area as precipitation from the Northern Plains shortwave
should remain mostly north of the area, and precipitation from the
surface low pressure over the southeastern U.S. should stay just
east of the area. As a result, have lowered PoPs for Wednesday with
only some slight chance PoPs across far northern KS and then in east
central Kansas as the CWA will be wedged between these two areas of
precipitation. As the mid-level trough develops, expect a complex of
storms to develop over Nebraska and track southeastward into the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. There are some slight model
discrepancies with regards to the timing of these storms moving into
the area, which may affect how strong the storms will be.  At this
time, there is the potential for some marginally severe storms with
this complex with 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 30kts of 0-6km
shear. The main hazards would be some strong winds and small hail.
Storms may be lingering across portions of northeast and east
central Kansas Thursday morning, but may see a brief break before
the next round of storms develop. The combination of weak embedded
waves within the northwesterly mid-level flow and a front moving
into southern Kansas should help to spawn additional thunderstorm
development Thursday evening into Friday morning as there is the
potential for another complex of storms to track across central
Kansas. A few of these storms may be strong to severe as well.

There is the potential for some scattered storms to continue to
develop across the outlook area during the Friday through Sunday
timeframe as weak embedded waves continue to develop within the
northwesterly flow aloft. However, these storm chances will likely
be more isolated by Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures during the
Wednesday through Sunday time period should be near-seasonal with
highs in the mid-80s to low 90s and low temperatures in the mid 60s
to low 70s.  Expect drier and warmer conditions by early next week
as a large mid-level ridge builds across the central U.S., helping
to push the mid-level trough into the eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

MVFR cigs expected through 14Z at FOE and TOP terminals otherwise
expect vfr conditions at all sites through the period. Winds calm
becoming light east southeast under 10 kts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53



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