Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 151730
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1130 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Early this morning, a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation was gradually moving south through the area.
Temperatures have been slow to drop with the true Arctic air
lingering back towards Nebraska. Across northeast Kansas,
temperatures in the mid-30s have allowed most precipitation to
fall in the form of rain or freezing rain as wet bulb temperatures
are reached at the surface. The rainfall has impacted snow
accumulations significantly with snow just beginning to become the
prominent precipitation type across northern Kansas.
Accumulations from a trace to an inch are expected as the system
continues to move south out of the area, with the highest snowfall
expected in central and east central Kansas where freezing
temperatures may catch up to the heaviest precipitation. In this
area, up to two inches will still be possible. With freezing
temperatures progged to move into the area by sunrise, any wet
surfaces may freeze causing slick roads and hazardous travel
conditions.

This system is expected to clear the area by 8am and dry conditions
will persist as surface high pressure noses its way into the area.
Continued cold air advection will cause temperatures to fall
throughout the day today with the warmest temperatures seen at
midnight this morning. By the afternoon, temperatures will be in the
single digits and teens. Gusty northwest winds will make
temperatures feel like they are below zero by late morning.  More
impactful weather is expected tonight in the form of dangerously
cold wind chills.  850mb temperatures between -20 and -25 move over
the area by early Tuesday morning.  With low temperatures ranging
from -1 to -5 across northeast Kansas, combined with winds, wind
chills will range from -15 to -25 across the entire area.  A Wind
Chill Advisory remains in effect for tonight through tomorrow
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Dry weather is anticipated through Saturday. Models are in good
agreement with a cold and dry arctic high over the central plains
through Wednesday preventing any chances for precip. For Wednesday
night and Thursday, there is a little better consensus from the
models in energy splitting within northwest flow. The more obvious
shortwave in the model solutions stays to the north while some
energy digs south into Mexico. In addition to the energy splitting
to the north and south of the forecast area, moisture return is
likely to be limited and preclude much of a precip chance if
models were to trend energy passing over the forecast area. For
Friday and Saturday, the pattern transitions to more of a
southwesterly flow as an upper trough propagates into the central
and southern Rockies. This pattern change is likely to allow
better southerly return flow and warmer temps to move into the
area. Highs in the 50s appear to be a real possibility.

For Saturday night and Sunday, the upper trough over the Rockies is
progged to lift into the central plains and close off. Models
develop some cyclogenesis and track a surface low across the
forecast area late Saturday night and Sunday. Although there are
still variations in the exact path of the low and its intensity.
Initially based on this track, the forecast area looks to be in the
warm sector, with some cold air advection on the back side of the
surface low and potential wrap around precip. The GFS also appears
to have more cold air associated with the system than the ECMWF and
Canadian solutions. Given the uncertainties and that this is six
days away, have some modest chance POPs for rain and snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northwesterly to
northerly winds of 10-15 kt with higher gusts are expected through
this afternoon, before becoming somewhat lighter for this evening
and tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Cohen



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