Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
000
FXUS63 KTOP 141100
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
600 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and storms
today.
- The risk for severe weather has diminished and is not
forecast to redevelop today.
- Dry and more seasonal weather is forecast for Friday and into
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Regional radars at 08Z showed an MCV had formed over south
central NEB that was slowly drifting north and east. Water vapor
also showed this MCV/shortwave lifting northeast into the
middle MO river valley. Further west an upper low had closed off
and was digging south towards AZ and southern CA. Surface obs
indicated a prefrontal trough remained over eastern KS with
dewpoints near 60 along the MO state line while a cold front
just began moving into northwest KS. and central NEB.
For today models show all of the forcing for vertical motion
dissipating or lifting north. There may still be some shower activity
near the NEB state line as that MCV spins nearby. But in general
models and CAMs don`t generate much QPF. This seems a little
contrary given southwest flow aloft and some residual moisture still
ahead of the main cold front. But there isn`t much shortwave
activity progged and no obvious wave seen upstream on water vapor.
So will keep some small POPs (20 to 30 percent) across the north but
around 10 percent elsewhere. Models show a fair amount of cloud
cover lingering around today as north winds advect some cooler air
into north central KS. Because of this have lowered highs today
thinking they will range from the middle 50s north to around 70 over
the far southeastern parts of the forecast area. The cold front is
expected to push through the area tonight. This should displace the
deeper moisture south and east of the area further reducing the
chances for precipitation. The cooler air is expected to keep the
boundary layer saturated allowing low clouds to hang in tonight.
These clouds along with some mixing of the boundary layer through
the night should hold min temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Chances for precip are pretty slim Friday and the first part of next
week. There is good consensus among the operational models for the
closed upper low over the southwest to become cut off from the
westerlies and remain over southern CA and AZ into next week.
Meanwhile shortwave energy diving down a longwave trough across the
eastern U.S. is progged to pass to the northeast of the forecast
area. At the surface models bring a reinforcing surface ridge into
the central plains Sunday helping to keep deeper moisture south of
the forecast area. It isn`t until mid-week when the models develop
some return flow with an open shortwave progged to move over the
region. So the forecast remains dry with more seasonal temps through
the weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
An axis of SHRA from southwest KS to near CNK is expected to
lift north with models showing any forcing lifting north through
the morning. So will keep a dry forecast for the terminals. Main
concern will be CIGS. There are some isolated MVFR CIGS out
there now but coverage is not as widespread as the models would
suggest. So may just go with a tempo for some lower CIGS this
morning. Confidence in MVFR CIGS this evening is higher as the
front moves south and cooler air in the boundary layer helps to
saturate the airmass.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters