Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 310012
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The main focus for the next 24 hour period for aviation will be
the formation of early morning fog and the extent/duration of fog
that does form. With no appreciable air mass change and more
clearing earlier tonight, confidence is good that the peak times
for fog will be from 9z to 15z. Right now, have opted to go only
VFR, but there could be times where lower VIS/GIG categories
persist. The factor that may help to mitigate how widespread fog
is tonight will be the wind and whether or not it calms completely
down. Conditions should improve quickly after 15z though and winds
will pick up generally from the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Drake


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