608
FXUS63 KTOP 080518
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms (10-25% chance) this afternoon/evening with another
  round of storms possible (30-45%) overnight. A few storms
  could be strong to severe and produce gusty winds up to 60
  MPH.

- Additional storms are possible (20-35%) late Tuesday morning
  into the afternoon, mainly across east central Kansas. A
  couple of storms could be strong to marginally severe and
  produce gusty winds.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions continue through Friday with a
  slight cool down this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Nebulous upper flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon
with a subtle perturbation over eastern Kansas noted on water vapor
imagery. A typical summertime environment is in place featuring an
uncapped and unstable airmass, but a lack of focused ascent has
precluded convective development to this point. The passing wave and
some weak surface convergence could provide the missing lift needed
for isolated to scattered storms to develop this afternoon into the
evening. Effective shear of 20-30kts could support a few stronger
updrafts with DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg favoring damaging wind
gusts as the main hazard.

A stronger mid-level shortwave will spark convection across Nebraska
this evening which is progged dive southeast towards the forecast
area during the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains in the
longevity and intensity of this line as it approaches the area. If
an organized line or cluster of storms does impact the area, it
could produce damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH. Chances are highest
near the KS/NE border before further weakening of any complex of
storms is expected as it pushes south into the early morning hours
of Tuesday.

A weak surface trough and/or outflow from morning convection will
serve as a focus for additional convection during peak heating
Tuesday. Most guidance has the boundary somewhere along and south of
Interstate 70 where chances for storms are highest. Shear is weaker
tomorrow afternoon, but effective shear around 20kts along with
DCAPE of ~1000 J/kg could support strong wind gusts with the
strongest storms. Mid-level ridging expands eastward into the
Central Plains on Wednesday, leading to a less active pattern into
Thursday. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week with
highs in the low to upper 90s and heat index values around 100
degrees. Flow becomes more zonal Thursday night into the weekend
with several waves ejecting across the Plains. Precipitation chances
increase with the passage of each wave, but the highest chances (50-
60%) for showers and storms comes Friday into Saturday as a cold
front moves into the area. This also brings in cooler air for the
weekend with highs back in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

An MCS continues to move along the MO river valley and it is
still unclear if TS will reach TOP and FOE. A linear
extrapolation would have them in the terminals around 08Z. But
meso analysis and RAP progs show increasing inhibition ahead of
the line. Based on CAMs showing the MCS weakening and the RAP
CIN forecast, I may just go with a VCSH for a couple hours and
reevaluate the progress of the MCS. Based on the current track,
MHK looks to remain west of the convection. It is unclear
whether storms will redevelop this afternoon and objective MOS
shows the probability is less than 50%. So may hold off on
adding anything else to the forecast until the morning stuff
runs it`s course.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters