Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 290856
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
356 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Very active and chaotic pattern in the short term. A moist and
somewhat unstable airmass covered the central plains early this
morning with southwest upper flow ahead of the main shortwave over
the central Rockies. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms
developed over southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma after 05 UTC.
The convection was supported by a decent low-level jet at 925 mb
modest moisture transport.  In the near term, forecasted the cluster
of storms over southeast Kansas to move through our southeast and
eastern counties early this morning.

The shortwave over the central Rockies moves into the central plains
today and tonight. A cold front extending from South Dakota
southwest into eastern Colorado at 06 UTC is forecast by all short
term models to move through northeast Kansas between 00 UTC and 06
UTC tonight. Given the abundant moisture and modest instability,
will continue showers and thunderstorms in the forecast until the
front moves through.  Will then end precipitation chances from
northwest to southeast the moisture is pushed out of the area and
cool advection takes over behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

With upper trough passing through early Saturday, have doubts much
precip will be left in the morning and have lowered PoPs further.
Low cloud does look to remain rather prevalent and expect highs to
struggle to breach the upper 60s in moderate north wind. Weak
surface ridging then holds the area through the weekend with quiet
weather persisting into early next week as upper ridging builds into
the central ConUS. Models showing decent agreement in a shortwave
working its way through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern
Plains around Wednesday. Could see precip breach the northwest
counties with this and possibly drape a boundary farther southeast
by Thursday for modest precip chances. Temps gradually warm into the
mid week with uncertainty on specifics increasing with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Confidence in timing TS at the terminals remains low due to weak
forcing and a lack of a strong surface feature to focus
convection. Because of this, refinement to the forecast is likely
to be needed. With the initial wave moving in and scattered
convection developing out ahead of the outflow, just went with a
tempo for the next several hours. It`s hard to see if there is an
MCV over central KS, but the RAP has one analyzed out there so the
chance for TS remains in place through the day Friday. While I
don`t expect there to be continuous rainfall, it is difficult to
pick out a chunk of time when precip could not occur. Because of
this continue with a VCTS through the forecast period. There are
some differences in timing the frontal passage Friday evening with
the GFS more progressive. Since this is towards the end of the
forecast, will let later shifts try and nail down the FROPA a
little better. Looks like there may be some lower CIGS with the
front as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters





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