Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 192007
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
307 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Cloud debris from the morning convection continues to linger around
portions of eastern KS this afternoon. This cloud cover has kept the
temperatures cooler by a few degrees, but most locations should
reach their respective high temperatures. regardless the dew points
have been higher than previously thought therefore the heat indices
are still reaching 105-112. Low temperatures tonight will manage the
mid to upper 70s. The nocturnal low level jet increases to around 40
kts and this along with a weak inversion will keep surface winds
from going calm. Therefore there is a chance some locations may stay
in the 80s tonight. Isentropic lift driven showers and storms
should not be an issue tonight as most of the soundings show drier
air in the lower levels. Tomorrow will not be much different from
today besides less clouds and slightly warmer temperatures. The
highs are expected to be around 98-105 with heat indices 105-112
across the entire area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Upper ridge axis shifts to the south and east by Friday evening.
Meanwhile the frontal boundary is oriented northeast to southwest
from southeast NE to western KS. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
to form with the LLJ overnight, barely clipping our northern
counties Sat. morning. Cloud debris from these storms could hinder
temps from reaching 100 degrees Saturday afternoon, however believe
most of the CWA should quickly warm into the upper 90s. Areas south
of Interstate 70 are likely to reach the low 100s. Moisture pooling
near the boundary may actually boost dewpoints a few degrees higher
than currently forecast, but overall results in heat indices in the
middle to upper 100s. Convergence along the boundary and an upper
trough entering from the northwest will likely trigger convection by
late afternoon into the evening hours. Wind shear up to 6 km is
around 25 kts or less so do not expect severe weather at this time.
Scattered thunderstorms focus on the boundary on Sunday afternoon as
well, however believe that the GFS has been more consistent between
runs with the placement of the boundary compared to the ECMWF (which
is slower). This would place the best precip chances along and south
of Interstate 35.

From Sunday onward, overall pattern shifts to northwest flow with
weak vorticity lobes translating through the region. Guidance varies
somewhat on frontal placement and where the upper troughs lie, but
based on the active pattern, its at least worth a chance mention of
precip on Tuesday. Overall temps are cooler with highs around 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. There will be a
low level jet around 40 kt at about 1,500 ft. This along with the
surface winds will cause borderline low level wind shear during
the predawn period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Sanders


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