Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 191101

National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The 07Z water vapor continues to show a broad cyclonic pattern over
the plains and western U.S. A shortwave was noted over the four
corners and central Rockies moving towards the plains. At the
surface, the cold front had stalled over southern MO and northeast
OK with high pressure expanding east from the plains into the upper
Midwest. Profiler data suggests some over running has developed over
the Ozarks with Satellite showing mid level clouds moving north into
east central KS.

There isn`t a lot of change to the forecast expect to reduce POPs
for tonight to a slight chance. Moisture continues to be a limiting
factor to precip chances for the next 24 hours. Models show the low
level isentropic lift developing over east central KS today. But
there is a capping inversion progged to remain over this lift with
little or no instability for those parcels being lifted. Therefore
there is not much chance for measurable precip this afternoon. Later
tonight the shortwave should pass over the area with models showing
reasonably good forcing. Most factors one looks at for forcing (Q
vector convergence, PVA, PV anomaly, frontogenesis) supports some
vertical motion. However as the shortwave passes overhead, the next
surge of cold air pushes through the central plains advecting dry
air south. Only the convective allowing models develop some light
QPF. I think that in spite of the NAM backing off on QPF, that there
is at least a slight chance for precip given the forcing. Again
models do not prog much if any instability so the forecast
anticipates mainly shower activity if there is enough moisture for
the forcing to act upon.

The isentropic lift over east central KS is expected to keep cloud
cover in place today. Because of this have lowered high temps to the
mid 60s due to a lack of insolation. Otherwise north central and
northeast KS should still see temps in the upper 60s to around 70
with partly cloudy skies allowing some insolation. A restrengthening
of the cold air advection overnight should cause lows to fall into
the middle and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

By Thursday morning, the upper level trough axis will be just over
northeast Kansas, continuing to push east and out of the area by
early afternoon.  At the surface, high pressure will move in from
the west and stay stagnant over the area until early Friday morning.
Temperatures tomorrow will be the coolest of the period with highs
only expected to reach into the lower 60s.  The light winds and
mostly clear skies will allow for low temperatures to drop near 40
degrees, with even cooler conditions possible in more low lying
areas. Mid-level ridging builds into the central United States from
the southwest lasting through the weekend keeping the forecast clear
of any sensible weather. Dry conditions will be prevalent through
Tuesday. High temperatures warm throughout this time into the middle
70s by Monday and Tuesday, while lows show a more robust warming
ranging from the mid-40s Friday night to the mid-50s by Monday night
into Tuesday.  Next chances for precipitation are seen at the very
end of the period associated with a lead wave moving over northeast
Kansas Tuesday into Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Clouds should increase from the south, but are expect to remain
above 3 KFT. So VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Somewhat
dry air is expected to limit precip chances so will not include a
mention of showers in the TAFs at this time.




SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.