Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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546
FXUS63 KTOP 112326
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Active northwest flow pattern continues through the central plains
this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows an embedded shortwave
trough developing light snow across eastern Nebraska. These snow
showers may possibly clip Brown county as the wave pushes into MO
this evening, however given the high cloud bases and lack of deep
moisture should only result in a few flurries at best. Better
frontogenetical forcing lies over Missouri with light snow expected
just east of the CWA.

With the low stratus lifting northward this afternoon, the next wave
will force the stratus shield further south again Friday morning.
Increased mixing of dry air behind the cold front will help to
clear some of the cloud cover over far eastern Kansas, while mostly
cloudy skies are likely for the central and north central areas of
the CWA. Highs are once again likely to remain below normal in the
mid to upper 30s given the persistent cold advection from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

This weekend...Friday night through Sunday...
Northwest upper flow continues this weekend with fast moving,low
amplitude, shortwave troughs moving through the central U.S. All
of the 12 UTC models are in fair agreement with the mass fields
concerning the strength and timing of one shortwave which crosses
the upper midwest Saturday night and Sunday. The NAM appears to be
more pronounced with moisture return in advance of the wave much
more coverage of light QPF across eastern Kansas Saturday night
and Sunday morning. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all drier and have
little or no QPF. It seems reasonable given the speed of the
shortwave and the relatively short duration of the return flow,
that it will be difficult to saturate to the point of producing
much precipitation. We are planning on keeping small POPS going
Sunday morning over the eastern counties with very low QPF
amounts. Precipitation type is difficult. The NAM has some ice in
the sounding, but the GFS shows very little or no ice. Will go
with a small chance of mixed precipitation Sunday morning.

Saturday will be cold with the center of a cold Canadian high to
the east of Kansas and easterly flow over northeast Kansas. After
the surface trough passes Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should
be in modified Pacific air and significant warmer.

Sunday night through Thursday...
Northwest flow aloft will continue to dominate through the period. A
secondary wave is expected to deepen across the central plains in
the Sunday-Monday time-frame. GFS deepens the trough across the area
while the EC is further east. Have at least slight chance pops
across much of the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Both the EC
and GFS suggest 850 temperatures will be near 2 to 5 degrees C,
minimizing the possibility for snow. GFS maintains surface
temperatures above freezing for both Sunday night and Monday while
EC hovers surface temperatures right at freezing. Went with a GFS
bias and just rain as a precipitation type. Quiet weather is then
expected through the end of the period as an upper level ridge will
move across the plains. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s
and 60s for Wednesday and Thursday as WAA increases ahead of the
trough located across the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For the 00z TAFs, light winds will veer from south to northwest
overnight into Friday morning with increasing winds by sunrise.
Some wind gusts of around 20kts will be possible at KTOP/KFOE mid
morning through the afternoon. Some uncertainty lies with regards
to ceilings as several models suggest some MVFR cigs are possible.
However, there is uncertainty with whether these MVFR cigs will be prevailing
or just scattered, and uncertainty in the coverage of any MVFR
cigs. As a result, have only a scattered mention at KTOP/KFOE with
the higher likelihood looking to be at KMHK for a couple of hours
Friday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Johnson/Baerg
AVIATION...Hennecke



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