Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 182316

616 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

At mid afternoon, ridge of high pressure extended from Minnesota
south-southwestward into Oklahoma.  Stratus that formed from ridge
axis eastward over eastern Nebraska and Iowa has mostly dissipated.
Given forecast movement of high to the east, do not expect
redevelopment in eastern KS tonight.

With the high moving east, and clear skies and light winds this
evening, temperatures should fall quickly after sunset.  Lows in
north central KS could occur around midnight, before southerly winds
increase enough for some mixing, keeping temperatures steady or
slowly rising after that. Minimum temperatures should be mostly in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Northern stream upper trough currently over the northern High Plains
is forecast to phase with southern stream upper low currently over
northeast New Mexico on Sunday.  While this will not produce
rainfall in our area during the day, mid and high clouds should
increase.  Despite the cloudier skies, southerly winds will help max
temps rise to the lower 70s most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

On Sunday evening, an upper trough sweeps southeast over the Great
Lakes region while the trough axis extends southwestward into the
Central Plains. Upper level support from the wave and the
approaching cold front may develop isolated showers just south of
the southern CWA border. Timing from model guidance develops light
QPF amounts in this area by 12Z Monday. Model soundings near Garnett
indicate a persistent dry layer below 850 MB. Have opted to maintain
the previous forecast with leaving forecast dry for this period.
Modified airmass behind the passing boundary Monday allows highs to
warm as the h85 ridge over western KS shifts east. Bumped up highs a
few degrees in north central KS to the middle 70s while most areas
remain in the lower 70s.

Little to no changes made through Tuesday evening as upper ridging
keeps temps mild in the low 70s and winds light. By Wednesday
afternoon, an elongated shortwave trough off the CA coast enters the
western high plains. Southerly gulf moisture returns out ahead of it
as sfc dewpoints peak near 60 degrees. There is better model
agreement of the upper level forcing providing a decent chance for
precipitation especially for areas west of highway 75. Track of the
trough axis focuses better chances for this area and points
southward as the upper wave begins to weaken to the southeast as it
encounters an area of high pressure. Main change was to increased
confidence and precip chances Wednesday evening into Thursday for
much of the CWA. Isolated storms are possible as lapse rates steepen
and weak elevated instability develops. An elongated ridge quickly
builds in Thursday evening onward with a dry forecast returning.
Temperatures during this period through Saturday remain at or
slightly above seasonal norms in the low 70s for highs and around 50
degrees for lows.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect mid-level clouds to develop over the TAF sites on Sunday as a
weak front approaches the area. This approaching front will also
result in winds veering from the east to south through the day on




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