Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Although skies will clear through 12z...appears that mixing will
remain strong enough to keep fog from forming...so have opted to
keep it out of the terminal forecasts for now. More mid level
clouds will form after 23z/27 ahead of the next shortwave trough.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63






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