Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 021726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, IF ANY, SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...53


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