


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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582 FXUS63 KTOP 122332 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 632 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and non-severe storms develop south of I-70 this afternoon and evening. Low end precip chances linger into Sunday afternoon (mainly south of I-35). - Near seasonal temps this weekend translate to low 90s for highs Tuesday onward. Heat indices peak around 100 to 105 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Slow moving upper trough migrating through the southern plains this afternoon, triggering several clusters of storms from Texas into Oklahoma. Showers and storms as far north as central Kansas near a secondary meandering front may impact portions of east central Kansas (south of I-70) this afternoon and evening. Effective shear is less than 20 kts while CAPE values average near 2000 J/KG. Updrafts should overall not be severe with the exception of lightning and brief, heavy rainfall. This pattern persists until the upper trough exits on Sunday afternoon with low chance pops kept in for areas near and south of the I-35 corridor. Quasi zonal flow returns next week, featuring no prominent waves impacting the region until perhaps the Thursday- Friday period. Given the setup with environment largely uncapped Monday-Wednesday, cannot rule an isolated storm or two in the late afternoon Tuesday. The heat becomes more oppressive Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as heat indices range from 100 to 105 degrees. Cluster ensemble analysis exhibits disparities on the 500 mb heights for the northern stream trough pushing a cold front through the central plains Thursday-Friday. When it does occur, it may be the best chance for widespread rainfall in the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms will remain south of the terminals through Sunday afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Gargan