239
FXUS63 KTOP 271048
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
548 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid airmass remains in place through the weekend
  with a slightly cooler airmass in place to begin next week.


- A modified cold front enters the area by Sunday evening
  bringing up precipitation chances to 60-70%. Could see a
  window for isolated to scattered severe storms bringing
  damaging wind, small hail and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Current water vapor imagery suggests the mean Westerlies continue to
remain across the northern CONUS along the US/Canadian border. A very
weak frontal boundary has stalled across the area and is only weakly
defined mainly by a wind shift from northerly to southwesterly from
northeast KS into central areas. The primary feature of importance
for Sunday is currently digging into the Pacific northwest as a low
amplitude mid-level shortwave.

With a warm humid airmass remaining in place, expect hot and humid
conditions to remain through the weekend. With the weak washed out
boundary across the area, there could be a few hours into this
afternoon where steep low level lapse rates and little to no cap
combine to allow for isolated showers or possibly a storm or two to
develop. Not expecting any severe storms right now with the
exception of late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as the
aforementioned Pacific shortwave digs into the northern Plains and
Upper MS Valley regions. As the modified cold front pushes into the
area, there could be isolated to scattered severe storms for a few
hours by Sunday late afternoon/evening. Little shear or forcing
appear to be established with the primary trough/shortwave displaced
north of the region. However, strong instability with the heating of
the day and the percentile PWATs around 2 inches will be in
place across the area once again. Lift associated with the
frontal boundary are expected to cause a few severe storms to
form. These would be similar to recent days with impacts mostly
focused on damaging winds to around 60mph as storms collapse.
Then into the evening as storm motions will likely be slow, then
there could be a low-end flash flood risk again as well.

Only a slightly cooler airmass will be in place by early next week
after the front shifts southeast of the area but even so,
temperatures will be around seasonal norms and still warm and humid
overall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

No significant changes from the going forecast for this period. Winds
back to the south early this morning and remain southerly
through the day generally less than 10kts. Could see a few mid
to late afternoon showers or a brief thunderstorm develop with
the heating of the day. Confidence in this scenario remains too
low to mention at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake