Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 110508

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1108 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

As of 20Z Sunday afternoon, stagnant mid-level pattern continues
across the CONUS with a large trough in the eastern US and a
highly amplified ridge in the west. Weak surface trough moved
across the CWA last night, veering surface winds to the northwest.
Winds have remained sustained near 15 MPH with occasional gusts
upwards of 25 MPH. A very dry boundary layer noted by relative
humidity values in the mid to upper teens across portions of
central and north central KS. The combination of dry conditions
and strong wind speeds has resulted in a Red Flag Warning being
issued for areas along and west of a Washington to Manhattan to
Emporia line. Conditions are expected to improve after sunset as
the surface trough pushes eastward, weakening the pressure
gradient. Boundary layer cooling will also increase relative
humidity values. The decreasing winds and mostly clear skies will
yield low temperatures near 30 degrees.

Monday: We then turn our attention to the shortwave trough
currently positioned from central Canada into northern Montana.
Short range solutions bring the mid-level feature and associated
surface trough through the region near dawn Monday morning. As a
result, a strengthening pressure gradient will setup across the
CWA. Northwesterly winds look to remain sustained between 20 and
25 MPH with gusts upwards of 35 MPH. With a very dry boundary
layer remaining in place, another day of fire danger is expected.
At this point, have held off on any headlines as minimum RH values
look to remain in upper 20s to lower 30s percent. Cloud cover is
expected to arrive during the afternoon hours as moisture
associated with the mid-level wave overspreads the area. High
temperatures look to range from the low 50s along the KS/NE
border, where cloud cover overspreads slightly sooner, to the mid
50s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The stubborn mid-level pattern looks to continue through much of
the extended period. A secondary mid-level shortwave looks to
translate down the western periphery of the trough on Wednesday. A
brief cool down is expected Thursday behind the aforementioned
shortwave. Highs look to remain in the 40s Thursday afternoon.
Otherwise, temperatures look to remain in the 50s for much of the
extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Primary concerns remain the incoming winds with the strong
shortwave diving out of the Canadian prairie attm. Will keep
initial few hours of LLWS until mixing occurs, increasing winds
into the mid day, and have added some decrease in evening although
winds stay breezy through the end of the taf period.


Issued at 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Upgraded counties that may reach 20% RH tomorrow along with the
strong wind shift to a Fire Weather Watch to best represent higher
threat. Entire area remains in at least Very High fire danger for
Monday afternoon, and although humidities improve into the evening
hours, the winds are slow to diminish.


Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ021>024-034>039-054-055-058.



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