000
FXUS63 KTOP 131958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
258 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A
VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AREA THIS MORNING.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IMPACTING NORTHERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WITHIN A ZONE OF H7
WAA BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE
REDEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE 60S. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
NOSE OF A LLJ AS A SUBTLE PV ANOMALY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA
STATE LINE BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS WEIGHTED ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TOWARD 12Z WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING H9-H8
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY AS THE LLJ VEERS IMPACTING LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MARYSVILLE TO TOPEKA TO OTTAWA. THE H85-H7
THERMAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAINTAINED LOW POPS
WEIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE CINH IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY REMAIN
CAPPED TO DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. GENERALLY MAINTAINED HIGH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED. PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO CLIMB OVER 2 INCHES EXCEEDING 190 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MONDAY-TUESDAY...POST-FRONTAL STABLE AIR IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE 80-85
DEGREE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MAINTAINED LOW POPS WED-THU WITH SOME PHASE
AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAINING BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
AS THE NEXT MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACNW. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WHILE MAINTAINING RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY WHILE
MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE
OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME INTERESTING
WEATHER MAY ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE FORECAST TIME
FRAME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
NOT AFFECT THE TAF FORECAST SITES. THAT SAID...I HAVE ALLUDED TO
SOME LOWER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TOWARDS 06Z AND LASTING THROUGH
18Z DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED STORMS TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST NAM
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING DECREASING TEMP AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
AFTER 06Z.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ACTUAL CLOUD HEIGHT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CH