Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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661
FXUS63 KTOP 201729
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Zonal flow aloft has pushed a cold front into the area, which will
continue to move southward this morning. Mid level clouds will help
keep the temperatures warm the remainder of the morning with lows
generally in the 50s. Behind the front winds shift to the north and
dry air filters southward. The 850 mb temperatures will not begin to
decrease until the afternoon hours, which should support highs in
the 70s and lower 80s. Winds near the front will be relatively
light, but increase 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. The
highest wind gusts will be across northern and central KS, and
during the afternoon the winds appear to gradually decrease. Minimum
RH values drop into the 30 percent range, which will cause high fire
danger across most of the area. Cold advection continues tonight
with lows reaching the 40s and lower 50s. Also tonight the low level
jet strengthens over the frontal zone therefore isentropic lift and
elevated instability could lead to shower and storm development. As
of now the better chances for precipitation will be across
southeast KS and southwest MO.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday bring a return to closer to normal
temperatures in the 50s as the area remains on the north side of
the front that moved southward on Monday. There are periodic
chances for precipitation but amounts are minimal and chances are
low. Better chances start to move northward into the area early
Thursday as isentropic lift and convergence in the LLJ increase
ahead of the western trof. Have added thunder starting early
Thursday as instability also returns, and highs rise back into the
60s.

EC and GFS are in a little better agreement for the progression of
the upper trof into Friday, with best chances for thunderstorms
spreading over eastern Kansas by early Friday morning and
continuing through Friday afternoon. GFS is slightly faster but
both have cooler north winds over the state by sunrise on
Saturday, while the Canadian is nearly a day slower with the
progression. For now, leaned toward the first two and diminished
PoP and thunder chances to follow that track. Despite questions
about moisture return, the system remains rather dynamic and
continues to present a chance for strong to severe storms, with
better chances Friday. After highs in the 70s ahead of the passage
of the upper trof, highs cool back down into the 50s on Saturday
to near 60 on Sunday.

Guidance diverges again with position of the next system on
Monday, and for now have kept some chances for rain on Monday with
highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

MVFR stratus may start working into portions of central Kansas
after 06Z tonight, but is not expected to affect the TAF sites at
this time. Winds will remain from the N/NE behind the passage of a
frontal boundary through the rest of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Skow



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