Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 130451
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1151 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances increase Wednesday with best chances (50-70%)
  along and north of Interstate 70. These storms could be
  severe and produce large hail, damaging winds, and even a
  tornado or two.

- Rain and storm chances continue on Thursday before conditions dry
  out for Friday. Severe chances are low (<5%).

- Cooler and drier air filters in Friday into early next week
  with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A mid-level perturbation is working across the central CONUS this
afternoon with a surface low centered over central Kansas. Low-level
moisture is pooling along a frontal boundary across southeast Kansas
and will continue to shift east into Missouri this evening. The
overall track of the surface low has been slightly farther south
than was depicted by guidance even this morning, keeping the lower
dewpoints confined to south central Kansas. The degree of mixing has
also been limited to an extent given the passing high clouds, so
wind gusts have been more intermittent in nature. This leads to
lowering confidence in any fire weather impacts this afternoon. With
the moisture continuing to be shunted east through this evening, the
chances for any storms has also decreased; there is a 10-15% chance
a storm impacts far eastern portions of the CWA this evening, but
any convection would quickly progress east into Missouri.

Attention turns to the next trough that is currently making its way
onshore across the west coast. As this trough approaches the Plains,
a surface low develops over southeast Colorado and lifts northeast
across Kansas through the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. A
strengthening low-level wind field ahead of this low will lift
a warm front north through the day. Models differ on the
progression of this boundary, but consensus shows the front
entering the southern portions of the CWA by late morning and
advancing further to along or just north of Interstate 70 by
6-7pm. Dewpoints rising into the 50s coupled with steeping mid-
level lapse rates will lead to MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The
degree of forcing and moisture quality to support thunderstorms
remain in question during the afternoon and early evening.
Forecast soundings show an eroding cap by mid afternoon, but
largely lack lift and moisture for convection. If deeper
moisture works in faster and lift is sufficient for a storm to
develop, the environment would support a strong to severe storm
with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards,
although a tornado is also possible.

Better forcing and shear comes with the approach of the mid-level
wave and enhancement of the low-level jet after 6pm. CAMs are in
fairly good agreement in convection developing along and north of
the warm front at the nose of the LLJ in the 6-9pm timeframe.
Differences in the warm front`s position at this time lead to some
uncertainty in where storms will develop, but areas generally north
of the I-70 corridor have the greatest chances (50-70%) of seeing
storms. The environment supports supercellular structures with the
potential for large hail (potentially very large hail),
damaging winds, and even a tornado or two, especially along the
warm front, as the LLJ increases and hodographs become favorable
for more streamwise vorticity to be ingested. The LLJ should
shift convection north- northeast through the late evening.
Another perturbation passes through after midnight which could
spark some additional storms across east central Kansas, but
confidence in this scenario is low.

Precipitation chances continue through Thursday with the area
remaining in the warm sector through midday or so before a cold
front sweeps through. A few storms are possible (20-40%) through the
day before dry conditions return Thursday evening into Friday
morning. Cooler air returns Friday through the beginning of next
week with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions should persist into the morning hours as a meso-
high pressure system drifts across the area. The next short wave
lifting out of the southern Rockies should cause a warm front to
lift north Wed afternoon. Chances for TS along the boundary are
between 40 and 70 percent. At this time, most of the CAMs keep
the convection just north of the terminals and developing
between 22Z and 02Z. So will include a VCTS in the forecast for
this potential. For now low level clouds look to remain above
3 KFT, but low CIGS may move in after 06Z Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters


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