Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 302316
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A bit on the cool side this late April day, with morning showers and
clouds slow to break up. Highs have reached lower 50s up in north
central Kansas while the east central counties have broken out of
the clouds and risen into the 60s.  A few showers remain in the
area, mainly north of I70 as the upper low continues to spin over
south central Nebraska and usher eastward enough cooling aloft to
support some pockets of light rain. Do think the clouds will filter
back into the area from the west later this evening and through much
of the day on Sunday.  Lows fall into the 40s tonight.  As the upper
low moves eastward, the cooler air to our north comes southward into
the state, with highs tomorrow still only in the 50s to near 60 in
the southeast counties.  Chance for showers remains along the KS/NE
line until subsidence moves in behind the departing low for the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

An embedded shortwave trough within the mean southwest flow aloft is
expected to lift over central and portions of eastern KS Sunday
evening through Monday. Latest guidance has backed off considerably
on rain showers across the area, owning to the subsident air in the
mid levels as the previous trough exits the region. Have lowered
pops to slight chances for showers through the day Monday as the
better moisture resides west and south of the CWA as the wave passes
through. Discounting the GFS as an outlier, all other guidance drops
another wave through the northerly flow Tuesday. Moisture remains
lacking with this system while guidance develops very spotty qpf
amounts throughout the region. Will maintain the dry forecast at
this time with the upper ridging building over the central plains
Wednesday through Friday. A broad, negatively tilted trough is
trending a bit faster with the GFS and Canadian models ejecting a
vort max east towards north central KS Friday night into Saturday.
The ECMWF does not bring in the wave until Saturday night.
Regardless, Gulf moisture return is able to recover dewpoints into
the 50s, bringing back the chance for thunderstorms next weekend.
Severity of these storms is too far out at this time to mention, but
something to watch given the time of year.

In terms of temperatures, readings are near normal given the lack of
strong cold or warm advection in the region. After cloud cover holds
highs in the low 60s Monday, highs are generally in the lower 70s
this week with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

For the 00z TAFs, ceilings should remain VFR this evening into the
overnight hours before dropping back down to MVFR conditions
shortly before sunrise Sunday morning. Models show these MVFR
cigs persisting through the daytime hours on Sunday as a mid-level
low slowly tracks eastward across the area. Some model guidance
suggests that some scattered IFR cigs will also be possible at
times, primarily during the morning hours. With this passing
system, winds will shift from west to northwest Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke



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