Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 110517
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1117 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Tonight and Thursday

Northwest flow aloft continues to carry a few weak embedded systems
through the central plains. While the initial wave this morning has
since exited eastward, the sfc trough and associated cold front will
gradually sink southeast from Nebraska by the evening. Ahead of the
wave, warm air advection from the south and west across the CWA has
amplified temps into the upper 50s, even lower 60s over central KS
this afternoon. These temps are likely to drop off this evening as
overnight lows fall into the 20s. Cloud cover increases shortly
after sunrise with the building high pressure overhead during the
day Thursday as northerly winds weaken to around 10 mph. Highs were
adjusted a few degrees from the upper 30s over east central KS to
the lower 40s towards central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Thursday Night through Saturday Night...

Clipper system move southeast out of the Northern Plains Thursday
night bringing a shot of cold air into central and eastern Kansas.
Lift and moisture with the clipper remain to the northeast and east
of northeast Kansas so will maintain a dry forecast. Cold advection
on Friday as arctic high pressure builds into the Central Plains
will keep highs in the mid 30s north to the mid 40s across east
central Kansas. Lows Friday night will dip into the single digits
and teens for much of the area, however the colder air will be
focused more in the northeast. Saturday highs will struggle to reach
freezing mark. Return flow ahead of an approaching wave and
departing surface high will moderate temps Saturday night with lows
in the teens in the northeast to the lower and mid 20s in north
central and east central Kansas.

Sunday through Wednesday...

A strong upper level ridge will remain across the western US,
allowing the central plains to remain in northwest flow. A weak
shortwave will dive southeast across the area early on Sunday,
however the development of the trough continues to trend further
east with both the EC and GFS. Maintained slight chance pops
across the eastern half of the area for the possibility of a mix
of snow and sleet Sunday morning. Quiet weather is then expected
through the end of the period with the only question mark being
high temperatures on Wednesday. The EC develops a trough across
the Great Lakes region, allowing a weak cold front to move across
the area. While the GFS has a broad trough across the southwestern
US, allowing for strong WAA across the central plains on
Wednesday. Confidence is low with either solution at this time,
however if GFS verifies, temperatures on Wednesday could be much
warmer than current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR deck to the north proving to be lower and more persistent as
it moves south, and have added lower cigs to terminals a few hours
sooner. Guidance however does suggest low cigs to break up by mid
day. Winds still quite variable, starting northeast, becoming
southeast, then southwest, then northwest late in the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...53/Baerg
AVIATION...67


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