Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KTOP 150903
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
403 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Temperature fluctuations are expected this forecast period with a
 few quick moving cold fronts impacting the region.

-Dry weather continues until the later half of next week when a
 mid-level low approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Early today, the cold front that moved through the forecast area
yesterday now sits well to our southeast while a surface ridge of
high pressure is centered over the northern High Plains. Aloft, an
H7 trough is moving over the central US and a large cutoff low
remains over southern CA. Throughout the day, surface high pressure
will expand over KS. Early morning cloud cover will dissipate as
drier air moves in, and winds will become light. Temperatures should
be comfortable, running about five degrees above mid-March averages.

A digging H5 trough over south-central Canada will advance over the
Great Lakes region tomorrow, shunting a cold front through northeast
KS during the afternoon. West and northwest winds will increase near
that feature as temperatures warm into the mid and upper 60s. Post-
frontal cold air advection will create a few cooler days as we wrap
up the weekend and begin the next workweek. Temperatures Sunday
should top out in the 50s as northerly winds increase during the
afternoon. A chilly Canadian based surface ridge will then settle
over KS by Monday morning. Temperatures are forecast to range from
the low to mid 20s to start the day with afternoon temps struggling
to reach 50 degrees.

Strong southwesterly flow sets up briefly on Tuesday as high
pressure moves south of the region and a quick moving cold front
approaches from the north. The pre-frontal warm air advection
pattern will allow temperatures to warm to near 70 degrees area-
wide. The aforementioned cold front will move through dry with
slightly cooler temperatures expected midweek. The next chance of
precipitation will then be on Thursday as the mid level cutoff low
over CA finally ejects out over the southern Rockies and High
Plains. NBM has POPs increasing through the day with a 30-50% chance
for rain and a few storms by the evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Light drizzle was observed at the beginning of the 06Z period
under an MVFR stratus deck. VFR is expected to return by around
10Z as the stratus moves south of sites. Breezy northerly winds
will remain above 10 kts until Friday afternoon when surface
high pressure moves into the area, relaxing the pressure
gradient and reducing wind speeds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.