307
FXUS63 KDLH 220548
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1248 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for severe thunderstorms has increased for late
  afternoon into late evening, mainly for northwest Wisconsin
  and Pine County in Minnesota. Primary threats are damaging
  wind and a tornado with a secondary threat of a large hail.
  Flash flooding will also be possible.

- The deep low pressure system will continue to produce rain
  tonight which could lead to flooding over central to northern
  Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin.

- Chances for showers will continue Thursday into the weekend
  with Friday having the highest chance for widespread showers
  and thunderstorms (60-80%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A 995MB low was centered in southwest Iowa as of 20Z with water
vapor showing a shortwave moving out of Nebraska. The low will
deepen further as it moves north tonight. These features along
with robust moisture and warm advection with a low level jet
acting on high PWAT values will produce strong forcing. The RAP
wraps PWAT values around 1.6" into northwest Wisconsin by early
evening which are anomalously high for this time of year. There
was partial clearing surging north through southern Minnesota
which would arrive into our southern Wisconsin zones yet this
afternoon. Instability was not impressive over the Northland as
of early afternoon but it is forecast to increase late afternoon
into the evening, especially from around Burnett County east
northeast into at least southern portions of Ashland/Iron
Counties. Favorable shear profiles exist with forecast
hodographs showing plenty of low level curvature. Confidence has
increased for severe thunderstorms affecting east-central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon into late
evening. The main threat will be damaging wind but given the
hodographs, a tornado threat will exist along with some hail.
CAM guidance supports the severe threat although there remains
some uncertainty on storm mode. Discreet storms are possible but
given the forcing, we`d expect the storms to congeal into a
line. The tornado threat will remain even if a linear mode
prevails given strong southerly 0-3KM shear vectors of 30 to 40
knots and a southerly storm motion. The severe threat should
wane by late evening.

Strong northerly winds will develop on the backside of the low this
evening/overnight and they will become westerly on Wednesday.
Forecast soundings at Walker and Brainerd show 40-50knot northerly
winds 1-2kft off the surface by late evening they will back late
into Wednesday morning as they move across the region. We increased
winds some but don`t feel confident to issue a Wind Advisory at this
time. It will be something to watch for though for much of the
Northland.

A flood threat will continue as well and we expanded the Flood Watch
further into northwest Wisconsin to account for the threat with the
strong to severe storms late afternoon/evening. Heavy rain has
already fallen over portions of the Northland with spotter reports
of 1-2" across the Brainerd Lakes region. Addition rainfall from
this afternoon and tonight will be 1 to 3 inches, highest in far
northern Minnesota and the North Shore.

The surface low will move just north of the Arrowhead in northwest
Ontario by 12Z Wednesday, continuing northeast through the day.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will occur through the day,
especially in northern Minnesota. It will be windy with gusts of 30
to 40 mph with the possibility of even higher gusts.

Looking ahead, there will be additional shower/storm chances (20-
30%) on Thursday with a frontal boundary across the area.
Another stronger shortwave will deepen the surface low Thursday
night into Friday causing higher chances (60-80%) for
showers/storms. A strong storm will be possible Friday and expected
rainfall will be from a half to one inch for much of the Northland.

We do continue some low POPS, 20-40%, through the weekend but
coverage looks more limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions continue tonight as the back end of this
low pressure system continues off to trek northeast. Moderate to
heavy rain showers will continue for HIB, DLH, and HYR, which
can result in visibilities as low as 2SM. By mid morning,
conditions will start to improve, starting at BRD. By early
afternoon, all terminals except INL will become VFR - which will
lift by early evening. Winds will become strong on the back
side of the system, with wind gusts up to 30 kts possible at all
terminals. Since a small amount of forcing will linger tomorrow
on the back side of the low, clearing conditions across our
south will lead to unstable conditions in which BRD and HYR
could see a couple showers and/or thunderstorms in the mid
afternoon. These are expected to be weak and short lived, but
could see a stray strong gust or two out of these.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Strong easterly winds with gale force gusts to around 40 knots will
continue or develop this evening. The wind will briefly diminish
late evening or early morning as they switch from easterly to
westerly as low pressure moves through the region. West to southwest
winds will ramp up with strong gusts of 40 to 45 knots on Wednesday.
Winds will diminish Wednesday night into Thursday. Widespread rain
and some thunderstorms will continue tonight but gradually decrease
in coverage late tonight into Wednesday.

Some fog will remain possible at times, especially when winds are
easterly and we issued a Dense Fog Advisory from the Twin Ports
to the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     147-148.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LSZ121-147-148.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>143.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>146-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Melde