Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 200753

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
153 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The upper trough is centered over the CONUS, with a
ridge building over the west. Low  and mid clouds cover much of
central SD. Obs are reporting fog now and then, and while models
differ on fog presence and persistence this morning, will leave
mention of patchy fog across the northwest. Showers across south
central SD are gradually exiting the CWA. Winds are light and
variable, and 2AM temps are in the 30s to lower 40s.

Upper ridge will move over the northern plains today, starting a
period of mild and dry weather. Low clouds will push eastward, with
mostly sunny skies for much of the day. Clouds will increase this
evening as a wave temporarily flattens the ridge. Highs will be in
the upper 50s on the plains, with 40s in the Hills. Lows tonight
will be in the 30s.

Low level trough axis will pass through the region as the upper
level ridge rebuilds Friday. Behind the trough, northwest winds will
be a little breezy across northwestern SD. Skies will become mostly
sunny, and highs will be in the 60s. Lows Friday night will be
around 40.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Broad upper ridge will remain over the Rockies and
Plains through early next week, with an upper trough remaining off
the Pacific coast. The result will be dry and mild conditions for
the region. Temperatures will be above average from Friday through
at least Tuesday. Southwest flow aloft returns to the region mid
week as the upper trof eventually moves into the western US. This
may lead to some increasing chances for pcpn, although no
significant storms are expected at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 151 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Some patchy fog is expected over nwrn SD early this
morning before burning off. IFR/LIFR conditions in any fog. MVFR
cigs over central SD will shift east of the region by this
afternoon...with VFR conditions all areas this afternoon through


Issued At 151 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Dry west-southwest flow will develop over the area
on Saturday. Minimum relative humidity values will be 15-20% over
much of the CWA, especially southwestern SD and parts of
northeastern WY. If winds become gusty enough, Saturday may be the
next fire weather day of concern.




SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Johnson
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.