Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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525
FXUS63 KUNR 282025
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
225 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Deep closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw
conus troughing ongoing. Mean ridging has resulted in the northern
plains. However, the nw conus trough will now be close enough to
influence the region with periphery impulses. Pressure falls will
ensue tonight with reflected se flow under lee side troughing.
This will support breezy se winds over ne WY and over most of the
plains Thur. Weak pos theta-e adv will eventually support some
instability by late Thursday over WY with high based shra/ts
expected off the mountains, being driven ne by the impulse and
steep mid level lapse rates. Isold convection may persist across
the far nw Thur night. However, most places will remain dry with
bulk of forcing remaining west of the region. Neutral temp adv
will support similar temps the next three periods.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through
Saturday, except for a few showers/storms possible across
northwestern SD Fri morning and the Black Hills.  A west coast low
pressure system will begin to approach the region Sunday. Models
have disagreements on how and when this next system will cross the
northern CONUS, but cooler weather with increasing chances for
precipitation are expected toward the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 224 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Pojorlie



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