Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 290941
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
241 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS TROF AXIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD SEWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS SUPPORTING GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE
SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MRNG.

TODAY...SFC HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH RETURN FLOW IN
OUR FAR WRN ZONES BY AFTN. LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
THE SD PLAINS BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD RATHER QUICKLY. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ON THE PLAINS...A BIT
COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND BECOMING
BREEZY. HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

A UNSETTLED AND COLDER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT DIVERGE SOME
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND ALSO TEMPS. GFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...MOSTLY AN INCH
OR LESS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY MEANDER INTO OR ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MILDEST DAY AS THE FRONT LIKELY SLIDES
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST MONDAY NIGHT BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA EACH DAY AS WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS
WITH FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






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