Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 140509
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1109 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Upper trough remains over the Pacific NW into the northern Rockies
with southwest flow across the northern Plains into the upper
Midwest. Surface high pressure is centered across southern Minnesota
with return flow over the CWA. Breezy southerly winds are bringing
warmer air into the area with temperatures rising into the 60s.
Upper trough to the west will push will approach the area tonight as
a strong wave rounds the base of the trough. The trough will then
become neutrally tilted Saturday as it crosses the CWA. Low pressure
will develop tonight along the baroclinic zone which has set up over
Nebraska to southeast Wyoming...then strengthen as it pushes into
eastern SD/southern MN Saturday. Colder air will push into the area
late tonight into Saturday morning...with gusty N/NW winds
developing over the western SD plains. Models have been trending
weaker with winds tomorrow...so am not confident any advisory
headlines will be needed tomorrow. Will let the mid shift reassess.
Precip will develop late tonight into Saturday as the trough moves
through. The best chances for precip will be along the frontal
boundary Saturday afternoon which will likely be positioned across
south central SD. Total QPF looks to be light...under 0.20". Snow
showers may develop across the Black Hills...but QPF will be much
lighter with little to no snow accumulation expected. Drier air will
move in Saturday afternoon and evening as upper ridging builds in
from the west. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are then expected
through much of next week with highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1106 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

ISOLD TS will be possible on the SD plains into early Sat
morning. A cold front will move through late tonight into Saturday
morning bringing gusty northwest winds along with areas MVFR CIGS
in -shra that will last through the day Saturday. Local IFR
conds will be possible over parts of Northeast WY and the
northern Black Hills into mid afternoon. VFR conds expected all
places by late in the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...JC



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