Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 231720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1020 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
CENTRAL WY. WATER VAPOR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ID...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS
FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST WY/BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS
ALTOGETHER...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK QG-FORCING
COULD STILL SUPPORT WEAK -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED GIVEN 850MB WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30KTS AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO BRING SOME OF
THAT TO THE GROUND.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
CENTRAL AB INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS TRACK.
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF TRACK...BUT PERIOD
OF SYNOPTIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED PLEASANT.
BREEZY SPOTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING PEAK DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLATTENING OUT AS IT REACHES THE
PLAINS MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. SOME 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15






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