Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 302029
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
229 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Upper level analysis has ridge over the western CONUS with trof
off the west coast. Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy across
the Northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is located
across North Dakota with a weak boundary across the area.
Temperatures at 2pm are in the 80s, and winds are out of the
southeast at 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight...Upper ridge remains over the northern Plains with mainly
clear and dry conditions expected. Lows will fall into the 50s and
lower 60s.

Wednesday...Upper ridge will hold through the day with mostly
sunny skies and warm conditions persisting. Surface high pressure
will shift to the east of the area, with southerly return flow
picking up by late morning. South to southeast winds will become
breezy at 15 to 30 mph with some higher gusts. High temperatures
will be similar to today, in the 80s. Dry and mild conditions will
persist into the night, with lows falling into the 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

The upper ridge over the great plains will shift slightly
eastward on Thursday as the upper low deepens over the pacific
northwest. Warmer than average temperatures will continue over the
forecast area through Friday. Chances for precipitation will
remain low and isolated until Saturday afternoon. A tight surface
pressure gradient will lead to breezy/windy southerly winds. At
this time, it appears enough moisture will be present to preclude
major fire weather concerns. The upper trough will affect the
forecast area this weekend with southwesterly flow aloft bringing
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
begin to cool on Saturday behind a front crossing the area. High
temps on Sunday are expected to mainly be in the 70s with some
lower 80s and on Monday, high temperatures will range from the mid
60s to the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 215 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the Black Hills this
afternoon into the early evening and possibly over parts of south
central South Dakota. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
tonight and on Wednesday.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



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