Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 231721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER
LOW SPINNING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR CENTER OF UPPER LOW...OVER
WEST SIDE OF BLACK HILLS.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH 200-400J/KG MLCAPE FROM BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

UPPER RIDGE SHOOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...COOLING A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOWN A
LITTLE...WITH PRECIP NOT MOVING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT NOW BOTH THE
GFS AND ECM ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.
GFS HAS PWATS 250% OF NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO COULD BE A SOGGY START
TO THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINLY THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...26






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