Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 172118

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
318 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Broad upper level ridge continues to expand over the CONUS, with a
very weak shortwave moving through southern SD at the moment.
Under sunny skies, winds are southwesterly at 10 to 20 mph, and
temperatures at 3 PM range from the upper 60s to the upper 70s.

Tonight, a Canadian shortwave will flatten the upper ridge a bit,
and push a surface cold front through the northern plains.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be a bit cooler, in the 60s, and
northwesterly winds will be breezy across the SD plains. The upper
ridge will rebuild for the end of the week, with continued dry
weather and temperatures warming back into the 70s and lower 80s.

The next upper level disturbance to affect the region will
approach the area Friday night and move through the Northern
Plains on Saturday. Some light rain/snow showers will be possible
Friday night into Saturday. Highs this weekend will be in the 50s
and 60s. EC and GFS diverge a bit on the speed of the exiting
trof, with the GFS showing the possibility of another quick shot
of precip early next week, while the EC is dry. Both models are
showing another large ridge building for the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1047 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.


Issued At 303 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

In general, low relative humidities can be expected for the area
through Friday, along with some breezy winds at times. Very warm
and dry conditions combined with gusty southwesterly winds across
southern Campbell County will create critical fire weather
conditions through late this afternoon.


WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ259.



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