Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 162153
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
253 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE RESULTING TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COMBINING TO
GREATLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY SLACKENS. THE FIRST
AREA TO NOTICE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WHERE
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES IN. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...WHERE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY CREATE TRAVEL HAZARDS DUE TO GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE DARKNESS THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN A NW/SE ORIENTED BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE WILL
KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR BLOWING SNOW IN PLACE FOR
NOW. EVENING SHIFT WILL CLEAR AREAS FROM THE ADVISORY AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY OVER WSTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH PATCHY BLSN.
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WILL GRADULLY TAPER OFF
IN THE MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. MODELS AGREE
ON A BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY /HIGHS IN THE 30S/ BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BECOME STRONGER IN THE EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTN/EVNG SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NE WY
TO NW INCLUDING THE NRN BLKHLS. WED/THU WILL BE COOLER WITH COLDER
AIRMASS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S OVER SOME LOCATIONS. A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. SHSN AND BLSN WILL ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MRNG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERALL
TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN MVFR OVER MANY AREAS...EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NRN
BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR WYZ057.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
     WYZ054>056-058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






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