Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 122026
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
226 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO NORTHWEST
WY...JUST UNDER THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR FROM
SOUTHERN SK INTO MT. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN SK WITH
SHEAR AXIS INTO NORTHEAST MT. THIS AXIS WILL DROP THROUGH CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND WILL COMBINED WITH ABOUT 1KJ/KG MLCAPE
TO BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. SHEAR
MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM...BUT DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY
RUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ENDING PRECIPITATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER ONTARIO WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
THE CWA AS IT PUSHES A COOL FRONT THROUGH. LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE COOL FRONT HANGS UP IN WY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL SETTING UP FOR QUITE A COOL NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEW POINTS PLUMMET INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A MAINLY DRY AND COOL PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND AN UPPER
TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST AREAS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. AN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
BY THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15



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