Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 200535
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1135 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CUT OFF LOWS ACROSS MANITOBA AND ARIZONA
WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NW CONUS. NEXT UPPER TROF JUST NOW
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH VARIABLE AND
BREEZY WINDS IN SPOTS.

WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE AREA. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE NEXT COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THESE
AREAS...THOUGH THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW THE ECMWF IS
FAVORING SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM AND IS ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION. IN GENERAL THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS INCREASING
GRADIENT/WIND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND WRAPS UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. GENERAL CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR A
BIT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND THEN ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED
AND TIMING OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON
FRIDAY AND THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LCL MVFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.