Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 281755
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1155 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 209 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Very active wnw flow continues over the region with yet another
series of impulses traversing the fa this morning. Small scale
impulses will continue to advect through the region today,
supporting a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, esp the
western half. Wave timing and resultant precip timing remain
difficult given nocturnal vs diurnal component and residual
boundaries in place. Given orphaned frontal boundary in place
across the sw third, best chance for precip will reside there, at
least that is what most guidance seems to agree with. Severe
threat will be quite muted, although sufficient ml cape and deep
layer shear exists for a few strong to severe cells, mainly this
afternoon. Have knocked down highs a couple degrees most places
given clouds, precip, and ll easterly flow.

Western conus ridge will begin to slowly shift east Friday,
supporting a decrease in number of impulses through the region.
Diurnal instability with expected weak impulse in the flow should
support at least a 20 pops most places, with the best chances over
the Black Hills given terrain effects. Expect a drying trend
Friday night as deep layer ridging ensues.

Cool temps expected today, with highs in the 70s most areas, and
60s in the Black Hills. Slightly warmer conds expected Friday with
80s most places.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Shortwave ridge slides across the northern plains this weekend as
upper low moves into western Canada. With marginal instability,
there is a small threat for thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm
back into the 90s for the weekend. Upper low continues to move
eastward across Canada early next week, with increasing west-
southwest mid level flow across the northern plains. Series of
impulses will bring a daily chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be cooler, but still above average by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1152 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across northeast Wyoming
and western South Dakota through the evening hours. Areas of MVFR
ceilings and visibility expected with the precipitation. Mainly
VFR conditions expected after midnight into Friday morning.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...15


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