Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 111140
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
540 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH MT...WITH
POWERFUL JET STREAK EXTENDING THROUGH FAR NRN WY INTO WRN SD.
WDSPRD RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL FROM NERN WY THROUGH MOST OF
WRN/CNTRL SD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING FAR NWRN SD WHERE LITTLE
PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. AS OF 3 AM...BAND OF HEAVIEST PCPN IS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLKHLS.

FOR TODAY...WDSPRD RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED THIS MRNG ACRS ALL BUT FAR
NWRN SD. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE HEAVY BAND OF PCPN THAT IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLKHLS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY
THIS MRNG AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 500-700MB WEAKENS. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
BLKHLS...WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN WY INTO FAR WRN SD
ONLY SEEING AN INCH OR SO. PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
IN THE AFTN...THEN END COMPLETELY BY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL
BUT OUR FAR SRN ZONES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH TODAY
GIVEN THE PCPN AND LOW STRATUS.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT SCNTRL SD. LOWS IN THE 20 EXPECTED
ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH TEENS IN THE BLKHLS.

FRIDAY...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING A SLOW
WARM UP TO BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER MOSTLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW CONTINUING. SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LIFR VSBY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ024-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR SDZ025-029.

WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ057.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ054>056-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26





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