000
FXUS63 KUNR 061709
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1009 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT...AND SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW ZERO AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RISE MUCH ABOVE ZERO TODAY. FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT...WILL PRODUCE BITTER WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. EXTENDED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE SCALE TROF OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES RANGE FROM -25 TO -40 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROF REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES OF -20 TO -35 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE WARMING MARGINALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING
AND SPREADS NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THIS LIFT CROSSES THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...MAINTAINING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROF AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WX SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...A RATHER STRONG CLIPPER WILL WORK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING A PRETTY GOOD
UPSLOPE RESPONSE IN THE NRN BLKHLS AND HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THAT
AREA. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS
FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING LIFT WILL SUPPORT
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE FA IN THE PERIOD.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RESULT WITH -SN POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...ESP
ACROSS NE WY AND SW SD. LOCAL LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE
BLACK HILLS...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND FORWARD. HAVE TRENDED
CIGS/VIS DOWN TONIGHT INTO SAT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC