Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 130451
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

UPPER TROF HAS CROSSED FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...USHERING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...WITH SOME MID-HI CLOUDS
OVERTOPPING BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. REMOVED POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE TROF WILL DROP SOUTHWARD SUNDAY...
WITH N-NW WINDS PICKING UP A LITTLE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SUNDAY...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER ONTARIO WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE CWA AS IT PUSHES A COOL FRONT THROUGH. LEFTOVER
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE COOL FRONT HANGS UP IN WY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL SETTING UP FOR
QUITE A COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEW POINTS PLUMMET INTO THE
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A MAINLY DRY AND COOL PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND AN UPPER
TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

FEW MID-HI CLOUDS STREAMING OVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACRS
WY...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLR ACRS FCST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SO THRU SUN. N WNDS WL INCRS TO 15-25 KT SUN MRNG AS SFC
TROF PUSHES SWD THRU THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...55
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...55






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