Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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295
FXUS63 KUNR 101605
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
905 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHERN PLAINS REMAIN ON EASTERN EDGE OF WESTERN RIDGE WITH FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD
MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS LIKEWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH
UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE WEST. BAND OF STRATUS HAS PUSHED
INTO EASTERN SD...LEAVING THE CWA MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE
LOW/STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY...AND TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S. SOME 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S CAN BE FOUND
ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPED EASTERN FOOTHILLS.

WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION EARLY TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...ALTHOUGH WITH CAA TODAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST
IS TOO WARM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EASTERLY TONIGHT. BOUNDARY SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND COLD AIR WILL BACK INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH A DECK OF
LOW STRATUS/FOG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE FOG...SO ADDED MENTION IN
GRIDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.

MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EARLY
MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FARTHER
WEST. FOG MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE LOOKS LOWER. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES AMPLIFIED ACTIVE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND AND A RETURN TO ACTIVE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NW-SE ORIENTED LOW AND MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IN THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
TO THE EAST. OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...SUPPORTING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS. MILD
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 234 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER MOST OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



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