Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 272325
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
525 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER WESTERN ND AND A
RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SECONDARY WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN SD...CREATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

PRECIP WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT WILL STILL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY
OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S
TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN
COOLER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...AND SO EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

MEAN WESTERN NOAM RIDGING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS AT BAY
THUR. SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM WED...ESP ACROSS
NW SD. ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES PRECLUDE POP MENTION ATTM. A WARM UP
WILL ENSUE THUR NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S LIKELY
SAT ON THE PLAINS. A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN ON THE
PLAINS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

LEFTOVER SPRINKLES WILL END SHORTLY LEAVING A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHWEST SD TONIGHT...BUT WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON




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