000
FXUS63 KUNR 132106
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
306 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MAIN BANDS OF
PCPN ARE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF
CLOUDS AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE. COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP...
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...EVEN COLDER OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY...WITH BRISK WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TUESDAY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH DISPOSITION OF
UPPER TROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS. UNCERTAINTY AGAIN
AS A RESULT...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST/GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CIGS TO THE NORTH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON