000
FXUS63 KUNR 191218
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
618 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK COOL FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MN TO
KIEN TO KSHR THROUGH CENTRAL MT. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER SOUTHEAST MT...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SMALL MCS OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...TAPPING INTO 1-2KJ/KG MUCAPE. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN
SYSTEM EXITING THE CWA BY 12Z. LINGERING TSRA MAY STILL BE
OCCUR...WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO POPS TO MATCH. NEXT
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE CWA BY MIDDAY. IT WILL INDUCE QUICK RETURN
FLOW OVER THE CWA ALLOWING 1-2KJ/KG MLCAPE TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SD. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE PER ST OVER CENTRAL NE. 15-20M/S 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...BUT MLCIN WILL BE RATHER STOUT ON THE
PLAINS. SUSPECT TSRA WILL FIRE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AROUND
LUNCHTIME AND THEN POSSIBLY SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. STUCK
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE EXITS CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN IT/S WAKE.
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH THERMAL
RIDGE. ASSUMING GUIDANCE HAVEN/T MISSED A PERTINENT
SHORTWAVE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS OVER NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHWEST SD
PROMOTING HOT WEATHER. WILL TREND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH READINGS
AROUND 100F FROM KPHP TO KIEN TO KICR.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND AGAIN IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. SOME LOCATIONS ON
THE PLAINS MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA FROM THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MID MORNING.
IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIP.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15