


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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608 FXUS63 KUNR 300341 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 941 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible through this evening, mainly across the Black Hills and southwestern South Dakota. - Dry and seasonable conditions on Monday. - Hot with chances for isolated storms Tuesday through Thursday. - Increasing chances for storms late in the week (Friday and Saturday). && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Strong to severe storms have developed over the Black Hills. Thunderstorms should persist through the evening with damaging winds and large hail being the main threat from the storms. Convection should move eastward and exit the CWA around midnight as the upper trough moves into the Central Plains. An upper ridge will build over the Rockies on Monday, before becoming centered over the forecast area by Wednesday. This will result in a drier northwest flow pattern to start the week. Overall, Monday looks to be dry and seasonal with subsidence behind the trough. Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing CAPE and shear. The upper ridge breaks down on Thursday, transitioning the area back to southwest flow, then zonal flow by Friday. Overall, this pattern would result in increasing chances for thunderstorms by the end of the week and to start the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 937 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Scattered showers/storms have developed from SW to central SD, and are expected to gradually shift southeastward this evening and remain sub-severe. Besides any brief MVFR conditions with these storms, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Smith AVIATION...Pojorlie