Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 192149

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
249 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Monday Night)
Issued at 231 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure over northeast
WY, with warm front extending east across northern SD. Upper
level analysis shows a ridge over eastern portions of the plains
and into the MS river valley, with trough off the pacific NW coast
and a weakening low over the Four Corners region. Southwest flow
over the region continues to bring considerable mid and high
cloudiness to the area. Temperatures at 2pm are in the 60s to
lower 70s.

Tonight...Weak shortwave energy will move into the area this
evening, with the best chance for showers during the overnight
hours. Temps look warm enough for rainfall across much of the
area, with a mix possible across the higher Black Hills later
tonight before showers exit. Lows will mostly be in the mid 30s to
mid 40s.

Monday...Upper shortwave will quickly shift east. Any lingering
showers will quickly exit northern and eastern portions of the
forecast area by mid morning as cool front pushes through. Cooler
air will filter in, but temps will continue to be well above
average, highs in the 50s and lower 60s. Mostly sunny skies
expected everywhere by midday. Flat ridge will build back into the
area Monday night with quiet weather expected. Lows will be in the
mid 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Shortwave ridge briefly moves across the area on Tuesday, with
surface warm front moving east through the area. Warm conditions
expected again, with some record highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
Another cold front will pass through Tuesday night. Main
shortwave energy will stay north of the area, but a few showers
are possible across northeast WY and the Black Hills Tuesday night
into early Wednesday.

Large scale trough will dig south out of the Gulf of Alaska and into
the Pacific NW Wednesday, then move into the Rockies Wednesday night
and the high plains on Thursday. Medium range models continue to
trend this system a little further south. This track would favor
the more significant snowfall potential to southern portions of
the forecast area, south of Interstate 90 and into Nebraska, from
late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Confidence remains low
on the final track of this system with the notable run to run
differences in each model solution.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 231 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period.
South to southwest winds will be breezy through early evening
across the area today, especially northeastern WY. Scattered
showers will develop this evening and move through much of the
area overnight. Local MVFR conditions are possible overnight,
especially across higher terrain.




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