000
FXUS63 KUNR 302150
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WIGGLE OVER THE CWA
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW TO PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TO ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY MORNING...SO THE THREAT OF ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL NOT LAST LONG. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF -SHRASN OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE BLACK
HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED...BUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE
ND BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF
AXIS...AND SHOULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW
MIDWEEK...WITH CONSENSUS KEEPING THE TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME...AT
LEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SD
LATER TONIGHT...SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
THE BLACK HILLS AREA AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15