National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KAPX 150509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
109 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

ONE MORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND SPREAD A BATCH OF SNOWFALL UP THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...BRINGING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND BRING SOME RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE.

HOWEVER...THIS NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL PRESS BACK INTO THE STATE FOR MIDWEEK. BUT THIS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL MORE RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

LOOKING A LITTLE MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN MID APRIL HEADING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS (BESIDES ONGOING FLOODING) BEING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR SOME AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS
PLACES A COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITING SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
AFTER HAVING PROVIDED THOSE LUCKY FOLKS WITH A VERY WARM DAY
EARLIER. CLOSER TO HOME...LAST VESTIGES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES ARE WANING WITH BASICALLY NOTHING BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK JUST UPSTREAM SHOWS ONE
FINAL SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX QUICKLY ZIPPING NORTH THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER THIS EVENING...ALL WHILE THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES.

SETUP STILL APPEARS PRIME FOR A NORTHWARD-EXPANDING AXIS OF PRECIP
TO ARRIVE...PROBABLY SOMETIME TOWARD 00Z ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
FORCING IS NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS A NICE
CORRIDOR OF UPPER JET DIVERGENCE...WHILE AN AXIS OF ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ROLLS OVERHEAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTER...IN AND OUT IN ABOUT 6-9
HOURS...AND WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE...SUGGESTING A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT FOR MANY AREAS...PRIMARILY EAST OF US-131 AND TOWARD THE
EASTERN HALF OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. OVERALL...A GENERAL
0.5-2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR
NORTHEAST LOWER. INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD ALSO
HELP DEVELOP A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE (GASP!) AS H8 TEMPS SLIDE TOWARD
-16 TO -18C BY 09Z. MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING BY THIS POINT...BUT
GIVEN THE OPEN WATER...HAVE NO DOUBT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY SUNRISE FOR NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
AREAS. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED NORTH OF M-72 DUE TO REMNANT
WIDESPREAD ICE COVER...WITH SIMILAR ISSUES DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE A RIDICULOUS AMOUNT OF ICE REMAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST PLAIN
COLD WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BE USHERED IN ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND BACK FROM NORTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH 850 TEMPS STILL
NEAR -15C...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...AND AN UPPER WAVE...LAKE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF ANY
LINGERING LAKE BANDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS DRIER AIR WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
NOSEDIVE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10...WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REMAINING A LITTLE WARMER...ONLY INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20. THIS IS
ONCE AGAIN 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS RETURN FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW FOR EASTERN UPPER WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SNOW RATIO OF AROUND 8:1 WHICH WOULD DROP 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING ANY LINGERING SNOW INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RISE TO AROUND 40 OVER EASTERN UPPER AND IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS AGREE THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE UNRELIABLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
DURING THE DAY AND RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LARGE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT EARLY THIS
MORNING. THINGS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN BUBBLY CU
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. AVERAGE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE HAMPERED TOO MUCH WITH CONDITIONS
MAINLY STAYING VFR. THESE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUING
AROUND PLN INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ALL IS QUIET MOST OF THE NIGHT
WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 06Z.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OUT OF THE NW BUT
THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH AFTERNOON..AS HIGHER
PRESSURE ARRIVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

LOTS OF ISSUES ONGOING SOUTH OF M-72 WHERE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONTINUES BASED ON RIVER GAGES AND SPOTTER/EM REPORTS. AREAL FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES UP THROUGH 730PM...AND MAY WELL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE WATER HAS LITTLE ROOM TO MOVE
GIVEN FROZEN GROUND IN MANY AREAS. RIVER OF BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS
THE MANISTEE BASED ON STILL FORECAST RECORD STAGE...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT WE MAY FALL SHORT AS THE TRACE APPEARS TO BE TURNING
OVER AT THE MOMENT. SEVERAL OTHER NON-FORECAST SPOTS HAVE ALREADY
EXCEEDED THEIR ALL-TIME RECORD STAGES...SO MOST CERTAINLY THIS IS A
HIGH IMPACT AND RARE EVENT. STILL WATCHING TO SEE IF THE AU SABLE
RIVER NEAR RED OAK CAN MAKE IT TO FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE...AND ALSO WATCHING THE BOARDMAN NEAR MAYFIELD AS IT CONTINUES
TO SPIKE UPWARD. THANKFULLY...NO ADDITIONAL MAJOR PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT
ONLY ADDING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID...AND ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK RELEGATED TO EASTERN UPPER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SMD
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE