Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 231719
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
119 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BRING
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME WET SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...COOL BUT VERY NICE OUT...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

UPPER LEVEL TIGHTER NW FLOW/JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD WITH DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTIONS...AND INVADING HIGH PRESSURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/H8 JET IS NOW EXITING OUT OF THE REGION...AND WINDS WERE
DYING DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD POOL AND TRAPPED
MOISTURE FROM THE DOWNWARD MOTIONS/WEAK INVERSION IS/HAS EXITED MUCH
OF THE CWA. SKIES ARE RATHER CLEAR...WITH DEW POINTS LINGERING
HIGH...BUT ANY FOG HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP DUE TO STILL A
GOOD NIGHT TIME WIND OUT THERE.

DEEP DRY AIR SETTLES IN TODAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...BUT MIXING
WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS AIR IS
ONTARIO WHERE TD`S YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DROPPED AS LOW AS 9F PER
OBS. MOST AREAS WERE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F...BUT DATA IS
SPARSE IN THE MAIN SOURCE REGION...PLUS...NUMBERS ARE LIKELY A
SHADE HIGH DUE TO SNOW COVER AND SOME RECENT MELTING. FURTHER
ANALYSIS OF FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING OUT TO ROUGHLY 12F-
17F....FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE
MIDDLE 40S IN EASTERN UPPER...AS WELL AS DOWNWIND OF THE COLDER
LAKES...WITH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN NRN
LOWER. THIS WILL BRING RH`S DOWN INTO CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN
NRN LOWER. QUITE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.


GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE WHOLE DAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL
ROAM THE GTV BAY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW EARLY
WITH SOME GUSTINESS ACROSS NE LOWER...BEFORE DYING OFF AND BECOMING
WEAK LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED
OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND
30F. IT`LL FEEL DRIER OUT THERE FOR SURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

OVERVIEW...A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE 500 MB TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BY SATURDAY, AND THEN BEYOND...A SECOND TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE COLD SNAP THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING.

(4/24)THURSDAY...IT STILL SEEMS LIKE A QUESTION MARK. THE 12Z GFS
MUST HAVE BROUGHT THE RAIN IN A LITTLE MORE. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT THE
12Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS, I`M WONDERING WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILES
THAT THE RAIN DOESN`T HOLD OFF A BIT LONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF MODELS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER DRY LAYER UNDER THE RETURN FLOW OF THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH. IN FACT, WITH THE 850 MB MOISTURE SHOWING ON THE
ECMWF THAT EVEN IT`S QPF FIELD IS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE. SO TRIED A
BLENDED APPROACH BY TAKING THE ECMWF 12Z AND THE GOING FORECAST.
THIS CUT SOME OF THE POPS, BUT LEAVES THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SW
COUNTIES, NEAR TVC AND MBL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME FRAME WAS NEVER IN QUESTION AS THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET BETTER COORDINATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. IT`S JUST THAT THE GFS BEGINS TO OUT
RACE THE ECMWF AND PULLS BOTH THE 500 MB AND SFC LOW IN C UPPER BY
12Z. THE ECMWF HAS A SHALLOWER SFC DEPRESSION, WITH THE 500 MB LOW
IN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FROM THE WPC DISCUSSION ON
THE MODELS THEY ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION THAT
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND UKMET. WHICH SEEMS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF IDEA.

(4/25)FRIDAY...IF WE STAY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IDEA THEN WILL KEEP
THE GOING TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS THAT ARE GFS INFLUENCED ARE
QUITE COLD. HOWEVER, IN THE OFF CHANCE THAT THE GFS IS RIGHT, THEN
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFF BE QUITE A LOT. OTHERWISE, THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN BY
00Z. OVERNIGHT, THE GFS GETS REALLY COLD WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -6C WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS AROUND 0C
NEAR THE STRAITS. SO WILL HAVE RAIN OR SNOW AS THE LAST OF THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE ECMWF DRIES OUT THE UPPER LEVELS
(700-500 MB), WHILE THE GFS IS VERY WET. AGAIN, IF THE WPC
DISCUSSION IS RIGHT WITH THE IDEA THAT MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
BACKING OFF OF THE SOUTHERN TRACK, THEN THE GFS IS TOO COLD.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...(4/26)SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE
THE DRY IDEA WITH THE DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
(4/27)SUNDAY...THE MODELS STILL HAVE A STRONG HUDSON BAY HIGH IN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF BEGINS TO DROP A 500 MB LOW
INTO THE EASTERN US, INCLUDING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHICH HELPS TO
BRING MOISTURE UP ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT IS FORMING UP IN
MICHIGAN. THE GFS HAS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT KEEPS THE RAIN
OUT OF MICHIGAN. PUT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SW COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. (4/28)MONDAY...RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON THE GFS, AND IS ALREADY HERE FOR THE ECMWF, SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER, SO WILL HAVE
SNOW OR RAIN OVERNIGHT. (4/29)TUESDAY...THE GFS IS DRY, THE ECMWF
WET. IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE 500 MB LOW CUTS OFF. SO A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. CLEAR SKIES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY SLOW TOP-DOWN SATURATION REGIME...WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING TO A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
WESTERN TAF SITES LATER THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL SIMPLY COVER
THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A VICINITY SHOWER WORDING. LIGHT NORTHWESTS
WINDS TODAY...CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS MINIMAL. WAVES
GET A LITTLE ROUGHER THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF INVADING LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE STABILITY WILL BE
ON THE RISE. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SMD






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