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000
FXUS63 KAPX 311557
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1057 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS DRYER WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SO DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. PLUS BY THE
TIME IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...MOISTURE REALLY DROPS OFF
THE TABLE. SO HAVE BACKED PRECIPITATION DOWN TO FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
ACROSS THE WHITEFISH POINT AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER
INSTABILITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

...ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY CHANCES...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WITH ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONGER MORE WELL
DEFINED WAVE SITTING IN FAR NW ONTARIO. WE DO HAVE DEEP LAYER WAA
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD MAXIMA/CLIPPER AND ON THE NOSE OF A
WESTERLY LLJ. OVERALL -DIVQ IS WEAK...AND UPSTREAM RADARS/SFC OBS
SHOWING ONLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. OVERLAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS
SHALLOW BETWEEN 925/850MB...AND THE PERIODIC FLURRIES THAT HAVE
BEEN DRIFTING IN OVER NW LOWER ARE ON THE VERGE OF BEING ENHANCED
TO SOME DEGREE BY THE INCOMING CLIPPER. FURTHER UPSTREAM IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA...THERE IS THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER PUSHING INTO THE
ALBERTA/MT BORDER....WHILE A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
IS SEEN ON SATELLITE CIRCLING OVER THE DESERT SW. FAIRLY DECENT
AMOUNT OF RAIN IS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE INCOMING CLIPPER AND BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SOME LIKELY SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-32. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR THE WESTERLY FLOW
REGIMES POINTING AT FAR NW LOWER. THE DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPS OUT
ALOFT AND THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A TIME. THEN
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT LIKELY RESULTS IN ANOTHER BRIEF LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRY SCENARIO AGAIN BETWEEN 15-21Z. THIS CHANCE MAY BE MORE
LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUE TI UPSLOPE FLOW.THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS AROUND MORE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH TIME
HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS....WHILE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA WAVE WORKS IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE. WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE
WITH TIME...BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
THEN...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ENCROACHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HELPING TO STABILIZE WHAT WOULD CONTINUE TO BE
A RAPID DROP OFF.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TODAY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO RESIDE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS JUST CLIPPING THE M-55 CORRIDOR BUT WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION AT WORST.

SORRY NORTHERN MICHIGAN SNOW LOVERS - CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO GROW
WITH REGARD TO THE WINTRY STORM SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...WITH THAT CONSENSUS PAINTING
A PICTURE OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER UP THIS WAY. MODEST VORT MAX WORKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE HEELS OF A DECENT MID LEVEL JET CORE
EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THAT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
MEET UP WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DECENT
UPPER TROUGH WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WORKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THAT SAME TIME. TRACK OF CLOSING MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS WELL TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO ARGUE THAT
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THIS STORM...AS WE
FALL ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE/DOWNWARD BRANCH OF RATHER INTENSE DEEP
LAYER  FORCING LAYING OUT OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. COMPLIMENTING
THAT IDEA IS DEEPENING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA AS STRONG (1045+ MB) HIGH PRESSURE FOLDS EASTWARD INTO
ONTARIO...HELPING ENTRENCH INCREASINGLY COLD (AND DRY!!) AIR
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL TOLD...CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW JUST SNEAKING NORTH
TOWARD THE M-55 CORRIDOR...BUT WITH NOTHING WORSE THAN A DUSTING.

SUNDAY ITSELF UP THIS WAY LOOKS QUITE COLD...AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT MANY
AREAS WILL BE STUCK ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH NORTHERN SPOTS
PROBABLY ONLY NEAR ZERO. IN ADDITION...AND MORE OF A PESKY FORECAST
ISSUE...SLIGHT VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHEASTERLY
COUPLED WITH THAT SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD AIR PROBABLY MEANS STUBBORN
LAKE STRATUS WORKING BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER ALONG WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A BIG DEAL WITH THE DGZ AT
GROUND LEVEL (OR BELOW!) WITH ANY ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH.

DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
ALLOW TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BACKING FLOW PROFILES MORE WESTERLY SPREADING IN
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. FROM A THERMAL
PERSPECTIVE...THINGS LOOK A LITTLE BETTER FOR A LITTLE BIT OF
FLUFF...BUT AGAIN NOT A BIG DEAL BY NORTHERN MICHIGAN STANDARDS.
THAT FLOW BACKS EVEN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT FOR SOME MORE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLD SETUP THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WE MAINTAIN
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AT TIMES. BY FAR THE BEST ONE OF THESE APPEARS TO ARRIVE
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR SOME
DECENT FGEN FORCING WORKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY. CURRENT FORECAST
ALREADY CARRIES LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND THAT LOOKS JUST
FINE AT THIS JUNCTURE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY ARRIVE INTO MIDWEEK...THOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO ROBUST ON DELIVERING SIMILAR COLD SHOTS
FOR MUCH OF THIS WINTER. NEVERTHELESS...NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND FOR THE SNOW BELTS WHILE OVERALL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

...PREVAILING MVFR UNTIL TONIGHT...

A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER IS MOVING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD NRN MICHIGAN. THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL EXIT
PLN BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AND APN AROUND 14Z. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS 15Z-20Z BRINGING A MORE BRIEF CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...AND ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...FREEZING DRIZZLE. CIGS WILL
PRIMARILY BE MVFR...UNTIL WINDS TURN MORE N AND NE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE
AIRPORTS...CLEARING OUT THE MVFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THEN NW TO N/NE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD