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000
FXUS63 KAPX 220909
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
509 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...One more summer-like day...then turning wet and progressively
cooler...

High Impact Weather Potential...Elevated fire danger across NE
lower Michigan before FROPA.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Overnight water vapor/upper air
analysis reveals a progressive short wave trough axis advancing
through the central CONUS with one piece of short wave energy
lifting northward through the upper Midwest...and second piece of
energy pushing across the Texas/Oklahoma area. These two waves
are expected to split over the next 24 hours with the northern
piece heading into Canada and second piece sliding into the Gulf
states (only to phase again over the Great Lakes around Tuesday).
At the surface...low pressure is over Manitoba with a stretched
out cold front extending down through the Midwest and into Texas.
Long but narrow axis of showers/storms have developed ahead of the
surface front and advancing short wave trough...with the northern
extent of that activity advancing across Wisconsin/western U.P.

Upstream cold front expected to gradually slow it`s eastward
advance today/tonight as it crosses the CWA...outrunning the
better height falls/short wave forcing pushing up into Ontario and
becoming a bit more parallel to the flow aloft. QG-forcing for
ascent also weakens in time...especially this afternoon as
stronger forcing pushes up into Canada. But still expect a more-
or-less categorical axis of showers to work eastward through the
CWA this afternoon through tonight. Latest guidance timing (and
trends) continue to suggest a slower progression of rain into the
region...and most of the CWA may end up dry through the morning
hours (save for some spotty warm advection showers well ahead of
the main precip band). So...have slowed arrival of likely-
categorical pops through the afternoon/evening and held onto
high pops through the overnight hours over the eastern half of the
CWA.

Thunder threat still appears low...upstream lightning over
Wisconsin has diminished rapidly in the last few hours. There will
be a narrow corridor of modest MUCAPE slipping through the region
ahead of the front...and can`t completely rule out isolated
thunder. But...have decided to not introduce thunder at this
point.

Fire weather concerns...slower arrival of cold front and rainfall
will allow a window of opportunity for temps warm into the middle
70s across NE lower Michigan. Coupled with gustier SW winds and
recent dry weather...elevated fire danger anticipated once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...Warm temps a thing of the past...

The surface cold front stalls out just off to our east while low
pressure moves up along it. Meanwhile, an upper trough drops down
from the northwest. It`s still a debate as to whether these two
systems will be able to join forces (phase) which will determine the
extent of deepening by the surface low. Models are squarely in
different camps here with the NAM/GFS still on the close but not
quite phasing side while the ECMWF/Canadian go all in on phasing.
Wish I could tell you what the answer is but honestly I can`t as
this is an extremely complex situation. So will kind of play it in
between for now. The best chances for showers Monday will be across
eastern zones out ahead of the trough and most likely closer to the
developing surface low. Showers should then spread into all areas
Monday night and continue into Tuesday. Winds will pick up as well,
possibly even to gale force on the Great Lakes. As colder air
advects in, enhancement off of Lakes Michigan and Superior should
kick in as well possibly leading to the rain falling heavy at times.
Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday with lows in the middle
to upper 40s at night. Temperatures Tuesday will be nearly steady
or perhaps even fall off depending upon how things set up.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Lingering wrap around moisture in combination with lake enhancement
as colder air continues to advect in from the northwest Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This will lead to additional rain showers
which may mix with or change over to snow showers Tuesday night
across portions of eastern upper and the higher terrain of northern
lower. After a break in the action Thursday, a northern Plains
system will likely bring another couple of days of unsettled
weather. This should be mainly in the form of rain but colder air
wrapping in behind the system may eventually lead to a mix with snow
showers. Chilly with highs ranging from the middle 40s to the lower
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 509 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

VFR conditions will hold through the day at the terminal sites.
However, a cold front across Wisconsin this morning will slide
through the region later this afternoon through tonight bringing
showers and CIGS lowering to MVFR to tonight.

Gustier SW winds once again for much of today...veering W/NW
tonight and diminishing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 509 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Gusty SW winds anticipated once again on the lakes today...veering
to the W/NW later this afternoon and tonight as a cold front
swings through the region. Small craft advisory winds/waves will
persist on Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay today...and on the Lake
Huron nearshore areas through tonight.

Otherwise...dry weather will hold through this morning. But
showers will overspread the region this afternoon and persist
through tonight.

Winds/waves will diminish heading into Monday and Monday night.
But stronger winds will return by Tuesday with gale force gusts
possible.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA