Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 110220
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE TO THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...PRODUCING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT NEAR LAKE MI FROM THE DUNES
SOUTHWARD. THIS IS WHERE THE THE COLDEST WATER LURKS JUST
OFFSHORE...AND WHERE FOG/STRATUS FORMED LAST NIGHT. TEMPS IN MOST
PLACES ALREADY IN THE 50S...BUT THE FALL WILL BE SLOWED BY DEW
POINTS NEAR 50F. MIN TEMPS (RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S)
LOOK FINE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH MOVED INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LAST NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC...WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BEFORE
EXITING EAST FRIDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...DEEP TROUGHING FROM WEDNESDAY
AND EARLIER TODAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST THIS EVENING WHILE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MAINLY DOMINATED BY SFC AND UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE INTO FRIDAY.

CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...BESIDE SOME
AFTN CU WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A DRY
AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 400MB...WHILE 850/500MB RH
LINGERS UNDER 30 PERCENT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN
DURING THE NEXT 24HRS WITH SFC AND UPPER LVL RIDGING CONVERGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS...IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND AND
KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT MIGHT BE CENTERED AROUND SOME FOG
ONCE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE
LIMITED AND WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MSTR
RETURN INTO THE REGION WILL BE LIMITED AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
MODERATE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION.

OVERALL WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
40S...A RESULT OF WARMER DAYTIME READINGS COMBINED WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

...DRY FRIDAY/SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER COOL SHOT EARLY NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL. ANOMALOUS CHILL EARLY
NEXT WEEK (HIGHS 15-20F BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES LONG WAVE
TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE MEAN RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN STATES.
MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON AND
WILL BE A PROMINENT PLAYER IN GREAT LAKES WEATHER NEXT WEEK (MORE ON
THAT LATER).  SHORT WAVE TROUGHING DEPARTING THE UPPER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN PROTAGONISTS FOR NEXT WEEK`S PATTERN SHIFT
ALREADY ON THE FIELD CONSISTING OF A PACIFIC-ORIGIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ALBERTA...AND A HIGH LATITUDE PIECE OF ENERGY
ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE OVER NUNAVUT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WESTWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA THEN UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.  LOW PRESSURE
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE EARLIER MENTIONED
ALBERTA SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MONTANA/IDAHO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS HEIGHT
FALLS TRAVERSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY SATURDAY.  MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BEFORE FALLING APART...WAITING FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF COLD
AIR NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM):  MAINLY EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY): FRIDAY STILL LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THOUGH
WILL PROBABLY SEE MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN DURING THE DAY AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE EVEN A FEW RADAR RETURNS MAY SHOW UP.
EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50+ INCHES...AS UPPER
MIDWEST COLD FRONT BEGINS TO GET STRETCHED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS
IT TRIES TO PRESS INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST
LOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ELEVATION
CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE THE BIG SHOW MAY BE AN MCS DEVELOPING
OVER IOWA AND SPILLING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.

AND WHILE MCS REMNANTS ROLL BY TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED/SPOTTY BETWEEN CONTINUED DEVELOPING ALONG LOW LEVEL
THETA-E GRADIENT...AND WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO EASTERN UPPER
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT.  BUT WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE SO AS NOT TO GIVE
THE IMPRESSION THAT THIS WILL BE A WASHOUT.  SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
STICKY AS WELL SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOUD
COVER BEHAVES BUT SHOULD BE MILD (MOSTLY 70S) ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUN (AROUND 80).  WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THETA-E RIDGE
STILL HANGING AROUND...AND AGAIN THE BIG PLAYER WILL BE POTENTIAL
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES).

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY): ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW (2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN) DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST AIR ARRIVING IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS SWIRLING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION...WITH SYNOPTIC/INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER NOT HELPING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A DECENT LIKELIHOOD
THAT SOME AREAS (UP HERE ON THE HILL AT APX COMES TO MIND) WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE 50S.

OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY): STILL COOL MIDWEEK...NOT CERTAIN ABOUT
A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY WITH A NUMBER OF WAVES SPINNING AROUND THE
PARENT UPPER LOW SUSPECT THIS THING WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.
POSSIBLE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY TO START THE NEW THURSDAY
FORECAST BUT LIKELY STILL BELOW MID JULY AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY MBL/PLN/APN. OTHERWISE
VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...THOUGH OUR
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY THRU FRIDAY. HAD TO FIGHT OFF SOME
FOG LAST NIGHT (ESPECIALLY AT MBL). THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE WARMER
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AS A RESULT...BUT WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW
INCURSIONS OF IFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE...VFR AND QUIET.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A WEAK SOUTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPING INTO LAKE
BREEZES FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS EAST...ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPING FOR FRIDAY.  BUT MAY STILL GET
SOMETHING OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOPING AT LEAST AROUND THE
NORTHERN LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES.  GRADIENT REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PETERS OUT AS IT TRIES TO
STRETCH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER 15
KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOWER VISIBILITIES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB







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