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000
FXUS63 KAPX 082116
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND BRING QUIET BUT COLD CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS...SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. MILDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/SYNOPSIS: MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE
1028MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE IA/SD/NE BOARDER...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE BUILDING HIGH
AS BEEN COUPLED WITH FAIRLY ROBUST DRYING...WITH UPSTREAM MORNING
RAOBS SHOWING PWATS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DOWN TO 0.07IN. THE LOW
LEVEL DRYING HERE HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...WITH STRATOCUMULUS
HANGING ON TO SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCOUR OUT ATTM.
STEADY CAA THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 20S FOR MOST...TO AROUND 30 FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. MEANWHILE WELL UPSTREAM...AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES...ROUNDING THE TOP OF WEST COAST RIDGING. NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROADER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.

FORECAST DETAILS:
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
CLOUD TRENDS AND HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MIXED OUT MUCH SLOWER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...TAKING THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FOR MOST PLACES TO FINALLY
BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SW AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. AS WE HAVE SEEN
THROUGHOUT THIS WINTER IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SCENARIOS...DIURNAL SWINGS AS MUCH AS 35 TO 40 DEGREES WERE COMMON
FOR THE TRADITIONAL LOW LYING AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES CRASHING RAPIDLY BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
ADOPTED THIS IDEA FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS...UNDERCUTTING EVEN THE COOLEST
GUIDANCE AND DROPPING LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS
/PELLSTON...GRAYLING...ATLANTA...MIO TO NAME A FEW/. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY BE STILL TOO WARM...BUT THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY PUT A
LID ON MIN TEMPS FOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SWINGS MORE ON
THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES RATHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
SWINGS. CERTAINLY WILL BE MAIN TREND THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

...RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH TRADITION SPRING TEMPERATURE
SWINGS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL...WITH PERHAPS SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

MUCH MORE TYPICAL WINTER/SPRING BATTLE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. PROCESS
DRIVING SUCH IS TWO-FOLD...WITH MULTI-WEEK ZERO HOUR PREVIOUS GEFS
CYCLES SHOWING ALL TOO FAMILIAR DEEP LAYER RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
CONFIGURATION AND ONLY SLIGHT EAST PROGRESSION OF SUCH...WHILE SAME
GEFS PROGS SHOW MAINTENANCE/AND EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OF POSITIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION SIGNATURE. THE LATTER RIDS US OF THAT CROSS-POLAR
ARCTIC AIR NONSENSE...WITH THE PROGS OF THE FORMER SUGGESTING CORE
OF REMAINING COLD AIR ANOMALIES CENTERING FURTHER OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SLIGHT NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM FLOW LOOKS
TO KEEP MAIN IMPACTS OF RATHER ACTIVE CLIPPER REGIME OFF IN THAT
SAME DIRECTION...ALL THE WHILE MORE MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERN STREAM
REGIME FOCUSES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MUCH LIKE THIS WINTER...ABOVE
LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS ANY STREAM INTERACTION AND
ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS STORM POTENTIAL REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...AND COMBINED WITH THAT NORTHEAST CLIPPER ADJUSTMENT...KINDA
PUTS US IN NO-MANS LAND WITH REGARDS TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP POTENTIAL
FOR THE FORECASTABLE FUTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION/TYPE
THROUGH MONDAY. RATHER SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ALSO NEED
ADDRESSING.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ONE RACES RACES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY ALONG
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC AXIS...WITH ROCK-STEADY MULTI-DAY ECMWF
PROGS LEADING THE CHARGE ON SUCH. OTHER GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY FALLING
IN LINE...ALTHOUGH SOME ARE A TOUCH MORE MOIST WITHIN THE "WARM"
SECTOR. LITTLE DOUBT MAIN CORRIDOR OF STEADIEST SNOWS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MID LEVEL
SUPPORT IS MAXIMIZED. SHOULD BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ON SOUTH EDGE
OF THIS PRECIP CORE. MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE DEEPENS AS ONE GOES FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH MOST MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP ENOUGH DRY
LAYER TO PREVENT PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF THE
STRAITS. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY WELL TRENDED THIS
DIRECTION...AND WILL MAKE JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO SUCH
TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...RESULTING IN MORE OF A
FLURRY/SPRINKLE MENTION. EITHER WAY...NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG DEAL AT
ALL...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS (PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS) ACROSS
NORTHEAST EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IF FURTHER SOUTH TRENDS ARE
REALIZED. POST CLIPPER CAA IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT...MAINTAINING
NORTHEAST LAKES BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR THE NEXT WAVE TO RIDE ALONG
HEADING THROUGH MONDAY. SAME STORY FOR THIS ONE...WITH MAIN CORRIDOR
OF SNOWFALL LOOKING TO REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE AND LACK OF DEEPER DYNAMICS
CASTING SIGNIFICANT DOUBT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP CAN MAKE IT
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NON-MEASURABLE FLURRY/SPRINKLE WILL SUFFICE
FOR NOW FAR NORTHEAST. SOME MINOR CONCERN THAT SOUTH PARTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MAY SEE A TOUCH OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS OFF THE DECK WARM NOSE
INCREASES. SHOULDN`T BE TOO BIG DEAL (IF IT OCCURS) GIVEN
LIGHT/SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY PRECIP.

TEMPERATURE A FAR BIGGER STORY FOR MONDAY...WILL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
NORTHERN LAKES REMAINS WELL WITH THE WARM SECTOR. H8 TEMPERATURES
PUSH THE MID AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS (YES...THAT`S ABOVE
ZERO!)...WITH DECENT MECHANICAL MIXING UP THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.
DEEP SNOW PACK SIMPLY PLAYING HAVOC WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORCING
SUCH TO KEEP NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE MUCH TOO COOL (AS CONFIRMED
YESTERDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN 40S OCCURRED OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN). GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS A TOUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THINK WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER
MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS. ADD IT ALL UP...AND REALLY STARTING
TO LEAN TO SOME OF THE WARMER NON-U.S. GUIDANCE NUMBERS...SOME OF
WHICH SHOWS HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING THIS
AGGRESSIVE JUST YET...BUT DEFINITELY NUDGE INHERITED HIGHS (ALREADY
INTO LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S) UP A FEW MORE DEGREES.

REST OF THE FORECAST: AS TALKED ABOUT DURING THE OPENING...SIMPLY NO
SUPPORT FOR ANY MEANINGFUL SYSTEMS HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH INFLUENCES FOR ANY POTENTIAL OHIO VALLEY/EAST
COAST SYSTEM EXPECTED TO OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A LATE WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT IN NO HURRY TO EVEN
INTRODUCE PRECIP CONCERNS WITH THAT ONE. AS SUCH...A DRY FORECAST IT
WILL BE RIGHT THROUGH THE DURATION. TEMPERATURES A TOUCH MORE
FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. DON`T GET TO USED TO MONDAY`S WARMTH...WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT READINGS TREND WELL
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER THERMAL PROGS SUPPORTING
HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE TEENS AND 20S. NEXT ROUND OF MODERATION
BEGINS THURSDAY...WITH SUPPORT FOR HIGHS TO REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD...AS DAYTIME
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AROUND TVC
AND APN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...NS
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...NS