


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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566 FXUS63 KAPX 122336 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 736 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering shower/storm chances into this evening. Continued low threat for a severe storm. - Smoky/hazy skies anticipated Sunday through at least Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Negatively tilted mid-level wave is in the process of crossing northern Michigan this afternoon with attendant area of low pressure situated to our north over northern Ontario. Initial lead shortwave and sfc cold front crossing northern MI now with a secondary cold front still upstream over the central U.P. and eastern WI. This latter boundary crosses this evening/early overnight with higher surface pressures building in through the remainder of the weekend. Forecast Details: Through the remainder of the day today, still low chances for an isolated strong to severe storm possible, primarily over northeast lower MI where latest mesoanalysis yields 2,000- 3,000+ J/kg SBCAPE in an environment with modest deep layer shear between 30-35 kts. Still looking at a primarily damaging wind threat in any severe storms with continually decreasing, but still non-zero tornado threat. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected upstream in advance of the secondary cold front over the central UP and northeast WI. Latest hi-res guidance continues to trend this convection downward with time across northern Lake Michigan owing to cooling mid-level temperatures and resultant less instability. In addition, westerly low-level winds post initial cold front should aid in limiting the amount of effective shear for storm organization. That said, while additional convection should be few and far between by the time it reaches the forecast area this evening ahead of/along the cold front, a non-zero chance for an additional strong storm can`t entirely be ruled out into this evening across the eastern U.P. and northwest lower. Secondary cold front expected to clear the entirety of the forecast area later this evening/overnight with any lingering precip chances ending. On tap for a generally tranquil day Sunday; however, incoming smoke from Canadian wildfires will yield a hazy look versus what would otherwise be a mostly sunny day. Some of this smoke may translate to the surface at times with some minor visibility restrictions possible. Some uncertainty as to the thickness of this smoke and how it`ll translate to limiting daytime temperatures. Current trends support maxTs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Pattern Forecast: More zonal flow aloft expected to prevail early this coming week before another somewhat more pronounced wave traverse the northern tier of the CONUS midweek. A weak moisture- starved cold front/surface trough may approach and cross the area Monday evening/night with a more notable boundary associated with that secondary wave crossing mid-late week. Forecast Details: A general reprieve in active weather expected through the early week time frame, although not without some low-end occasional precip chances. Those chances initially arrive late Monday/Monday evening, although likely just an uptick in clouds given the aforementioned boundary washing out as it approaches northern MI. Some diurnally driven pop-up showers/storms can`t be ruled out Tuesday before more numerous precip chances arrive at times Wednesday through Thursday. Smoke-allowing models suggest the potential for more hazy skies and air quality issues at least through Monday. Warmest temperatures of the week, smoke dependent, expected Monday- Tuesday with highs into the 80s (near 90 for downsloping locales) before cooling off mid-late week with more clouds/showers/storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Showers are inbound toward CIU and PLN this evening. A few TSRA are contained within, but most of this activity is thunder-free. And as we head toward sunset and beyond, activity should weaken. This will contribute to periods of lower cigs tonight at CIU, MVFR or perhaps IFR. Improving cloud conditions Sunday, but a general 5-6SM vsby in HZ should develop, as a broad area of wildfire smoke impacts northern MI. Westerly winds will become less breezy heading into tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to noon EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...JZ