Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 302148
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
548 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&


.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&


.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...MQT
MARINE...MQT



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