Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 251555
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1055 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS AND MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: SFC COLD FRONT THAT PLOWED THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN LAST EVENING NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS BACK
TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED BATCH OF CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS BUT WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BACK ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY
VEERING MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT...WHILE CORE OF COLDEST H8 AIR
ROTATES THROUGH ONTARIO SKIRTING NRN MICHIGAN. GETTING SOME GOOD
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOKS AT ICE COVER ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING.
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LARGELY CLOSED/FROZE BACK UP OVERNIGHT. BUT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER REMAINS ON LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE
MANITOU ISLANDS SOUTH AS WELL AS PARTS OF LAKE HURON. VERY SHALLOW
NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOWS CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF
LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON AND EVEN OFF SUPERIOR WHERE THERE REMAINS
SOME OPEN WATER/CRACKS. BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS VERY LOW KEY THROUGH TODAY AND LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE SW PART OF THE CWA DUE TO BETTER SUPPORTING
TRAJECTORIES OVER SOME OPEN WATER OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE DID
HAVE SOME FANNED OUT SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDS SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT MUCH OF THAT
CLOUD COVER IS STARTING TO MIX OUT.

SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WILL CONFINE BETTER LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES TO THOSE SW COUNTIES AND A SMALL SLIVER OF PRESQUE ISLE
COUNTY OFF LAKE HURON. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN WESTERN MACK/CHIP COUNTIES ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
ICE IT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. FURTHER INLAND...WILL TWEAK THE
FORECAST TOWARD MORE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE REGION.

TONIGHT...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LARGELY BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALLOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING...PARTICULARLY
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. BUT NOT A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WITH THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE
SRN COUNTIES AND A BIT OF A P-GRADIENT...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SO...AM NOT EXPECTING 20 TO 30 BELOW READINGS TONIGHT...BUT
EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY DIP INTO
THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTIVE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. IN
THEIR WAKE...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW ARE AFFECTING NW
LOWER...GENERALLY IN AND AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND AREAS SOUTH
OF THERE. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WERE ATTACHED TO LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IS STILL CONTINUING TO ALLOW AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND. A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN FROM
THE NW...WHERE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE NW
PROVINCES OF CANADA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...HEADING TOWARD THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

WINDS WERE STILL GUSTY...BUT WEAKENING...AND COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE TEMPERATURES....WIND CHILLS WILL TOP OUT IN THE -10F TO -25F
RANGE (COLDEST IN EASTERN UPPER). THIS WILL FALL SHY OF ADVISORY
LEVELS AND NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

CONTINUED SFC RIDGING THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT INTO NRN MICHIGAN
WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING WINDS AND ALSO MORE DIVERGENT WITH TIME
IN THE LOW LEVELS. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH TONIGHT. ONLY WEATHER IS FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING IN NW FLOW REGIMES. AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NE/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS NOT VERY HIGH. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME INCREASING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS.

MAIN STORY IS THE COLD. HIGHS TODAY 4F TO 14F...LOWS TONIGHT -4F
TO -17F...COLDEST IN EASTERN UPPER. LITTLE WIND IS ALL...LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH...AND NO ANTICIPATION OF A HEADLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...QUIETER...GRADUALLY MILDER...WEATHER AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. LINGERING COLD THURSDAY.
LOOKING LIKE SOME NUISANCE TYPE SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE TO END THE
WEEKEND.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: EXCELLENT MID RANGE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT THAT ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LARGELY DOMINATED BY MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER NORTHERN BRANCH. WITH THAT SAID...BACKSIDE WINDS ON EASTERN
FLANK OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND A BREAK IN THE ARCTIC PIPELINE
WILL DEFINITELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AFTER THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...SAID MODERATION ONLY PUTS US ABOUT 10 OR SO DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. AS
FOR ANY REAL WARMING/ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...JUST NOT SEEING
THAT POTENTIAL ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDRESSING START OF MARCH SNOW CHANCES.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS IT BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...ONLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH RAPIDLY DECAYING CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
DEEP LAYER DRYING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SNOWS
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING AS LAND
BREEZES DOMINATE. WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MAY ATTEMPT TO PUNT WHATEVER IS OUT OVER THE LAKE BACK
INLAND. LIKELY WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES
GIVEN BONE DRY AIRMASS AND AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER.
LAKE PARAMETERS SIMPLY TOO NEGATIVE TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF LAKE
SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DESPITE WINDS COMING AROUND
MORE WEST TO WITH TIME. DRY AIRMASS ARGUES FOR AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY GOING COMPLETELY CLEAR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES: LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS THURSDAY (H9 TEMPS
FLOATING AROUND -20C) CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS DOWN NEAR SAGINAW
BAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT...THANKFULLY NEGATING ANY TYPE OF
WIND CHILL CONCERN. THURSDAY NIGHT SHAPING UP TO QUITE THE COLD ONE
ONCE AGAIN...WITH RESPECTABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS
FAVORING TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND THEREAFTER THROUGH
AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT "ONLY"
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
START THE WEEKEND...AS DOES THE SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO CRACK THE 20 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY (AND HIGHS MOSTLY
STAYING IN THE 20S RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY). STILL QUITE THE
COMPLICATED SCENARIO UNFOLDING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
REGARDS TO OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH TRENDS FULLY
SUPPORT A DETACHMENT FROM MUCH MORE MOIST SOUTH DISPLACED BAROCLINIC
AXIS AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. LACK OF ANY STREAM
PHASING BECOMING READILY APPARENT ON NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...IN
TUNE WITH RECENT TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION. STILL LOOKS
LIKE WAA TIED TO NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY BE PERSISTENT/STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME INITIAL DRY AIRMASS...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR AT
LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WOULD
IMAGINE ACTUAL DURATION OF ANY SNOW WILL BE MUCH SHORTER...ALTHOUGH
CURRENT TIMING UNCERTAINTIES PREVENTS THAT KIND OF SPECIFICITY IN
THE FORECAST JUST YET. TAKE AWAY FROM ALL THE ABOVE IS THAT
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SNOWS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE
STREAM INTERACTION ISSUES...WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THEN WESTERN
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO PIVOT NORTHEAST. GULF LOOKS OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...AND ANY SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH HOW THIS ALL UNFOLDS...ANY FULLY
EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES BOTH IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANY SUCH SYSTEM
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NW LOWER
MICHIGAN...AS WELL AS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF APN...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. BRIEF VSBYS TO IFR WITH MVFR CIGS. PREVAILING VFR
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
SCATTERED LAKE CLOUD AND POSSIBLY FLURRIES ACROSS NW
LOWER...ESPECIALLY TVC.

NW WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY AT TIMES...BUT THEY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY AND NIGHT WHILE TURNING MORE OUT OF THE NORTH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD



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