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000
FXUS63 KAPX 230350
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1150 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Cold front is slowly slipping downstate this evening, with most of
northern MI now seeing a n to ne surface wind. Showers have
expanded and intensified north of the front in northern lower,
particularly near and south of M-32. After being thunder-free for
the afternoon and early evening, some thunderstorms have formed in
the last 90 minutes, mainly in the M-72 tier of counties.
Little if any precip was falling north of M-68.

Deeper northerly 1000-500mb flow will be established tonight,
helping push the cold front just south of MI by 12z. Precip north
of the front will migrate southward as well, and most widespread
activity (and any thunder) will exit the area by 08z/4am. But
post- frontal low- level airmass is and will remain very moist,
and we might transition to some sprinkles/drizzle in the pre-dawn
hours, especially in n central and ne lower MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

...Slow drying trend through Friday...

High impact weather potential: A few thunderstorms possible through
this evening. Severe storms not expected.

Overview: Afternoon surface analysis reveals front snaking across
the tip of the mitt counties, down through Wisconsin and Iowa, to
low pressure across the central plains. Still some scattered showers
ongoing along and south of the front across northern lower
Michigan. SPC mesoanalysis reveals some modest instability across
northern lower MI, particularly the SE counties, upward of a few
hundred J/KG. Thus remaining showers have become a bit more bubbly
in the last few hours. No lightning though.

Tonight: Surface front will sag down into southern lower Michigan
through this evening and on into the Ohio Valley through Friday
morning, as high pressure and drier air build southward out of
Canada. Scattered showers/slight chance of thunder will remain a
possibility across northern lower Michigan through at least the
evening hours as the front slips south. Low stratus and some fog
anticipated behind the front through the rest of the night and I
can`t entirely rule out the possibility of some post frontal
showers or some drizzle into Friday morning, particularly with
cooler low level air settling into the region and NE flow off
Lake Huron.

Friday: High pressure and drier air continues to settle into
northern Michigan. Mainly cloudy to start the day (particularly
across lower Michigan). But I do anticipate a slow N-S
thinning/clearing trend as we go through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Friday night through Sunday...can be summarized as nearly seasonal
temperatures with increasing chances for rain Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night.

At upper levels...500mb heights will slowly increase across the
region this weekend with a narrow 500mb ridge centered on the Great
Lakes by Sunday. The Great Lakes ridge will be the result of a deep
500mb low moving into the north Atlantic while an upper trough digs
into the central Plains. 850mb temperatures in this pattern warm
from between 4c Friday night to around 8c Saturday and Sunday. This
pattern will generate nearly seasonal afternoon high temperatures in
the mid and upper 60s acrs nrn Michigan.

At the surface...the nearly stationary boundary which had been in
place across the central Great Lakes earlier...will continue to push
south of the region. This will allow a strong area of high pressure
centered over Hudson Bay and Ontario...to slowly sink south into the
Great Lakes through the weekend. Overall...will continue current
trend of mild with dry conditions over nrn Mi through most of this
weekend. However the chance for pcpn does increase across the
western cwa Sunday evening into Monday. Model soundings and mstr
progs show moisture quickly increasing from the sfc through 500mb by
Sunday afternoon...in advance of a surface and upper low moving
quickly across the nrn Plains. Model do differ some on the timing of
the Plains system into the Great Lakes...with the NAM much faster
than the ECMWF. At this time will trend toward the slower ECMWF and
delay pcpn into much of the cwa...as strong upper low over the north
Atlantic and strong sfc and upper ridge over the Great Lakes should
hinder progress toward the region.

SWR

Primary concern for the extended will be the possible wet start to
the week. A system moving along the Canadian border will bring an
occluded front through the state, with PWAT values nearing 1.5
inches ahead of it. Pattern is rather slow moving, with a hint of
omega blocking and the deep, slow moving cutoff low to our west. Of
course the speed of the system clearing the area will affect how
much rain we see from it. Current QPF remains under a half inch
through mid-week, as some guidance is much quicker opening the
western wave resulting in a more progressive pattern and less rain
accumulation, with better forcing to the north. Temperatures will
continue to run slightly above normal, in the upper 60s and low
70s.

Mayhew

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Showers and low cigs tonight, improving Friday.

Cold front moving south downstate toward the I-96/M-59 corridor.
Plenty of low clouds and some showers behind this front. Cigs
range from MVFR into IFR. Those will continue into the start of
the day Friday, then gradually improve. Improvement will be
fastest at PLN, slowest at MBL.

A north to ne breeze will increase somewhat tonight and into
Friday, nearing 10kt and a touch gusty.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Winds will shift into the north-northeast tonight and remain there
through Friday as a front sags down through lower Michigan. Winds
veer a bit more east to southeast heading into Saturday. Winds/waves
will remain below marine headline criteria.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Mayhew/SWR
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...Adam