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000
FXUS63 KAPX 232036
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
336 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
EVENING...WITH PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
ONTARIO WITH TRAILING TROUGH SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THRU NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. UPPER JET ENERGY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA...WITH KINEMATIC FORCING CONFINED TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA /SEEN NICELY IN H5-H3 WIND DIVERGENCE FIELDS/.  TROUGH AND AXIS
OF DEEPER MOISTURE SWINGS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND
THE BEST FORCING RESULTING IN WEAKENING PRECIPITATION.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION TYPE
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE?

DETAILS: AXIS OF DEEP FORCING SAGS SOUTH AND FALLS APART THIS
EVENING AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND UPPER JET
STREAK SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EVER WEAKENING BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD...LIKELY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT
REACHES MUCH PAST THE M-55 CORRIDOR.  MINIMAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH.  ALTHOUGH WITH
PAVEMENT TEMPS IN THE 20S AND A WETTER SNOW /AROUND 10:1
RATIO/...COULD SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP.  WINDS SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AND
WINDS VEER NORTHWEST.  BIG QUESTION BECOMES FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL.  BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD SATURATION CONFINED
BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM FOR PART OF TONIGHT...WITH SOME HINTS OF A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SECONDARY
TROUGH /WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ICE PROCESSES IN THE
CLOUDS/.  LOW QPF EVENT EITHER WAY...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CURRENT FORECAST HAVING PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.  LOW TEMPS NOT GOING FAR GIVEN CLOUDS/SATURATED LOW
LEVELS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BEFORE DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE UPPER COMING WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWEST
INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY...WHILE A SECOND WEAKER CLIPPER DROPS SOUTH
OVER THE WRN LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. FINALLY...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE UPPER LVL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...SHOWS
CORRESPONDING 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -4C AND -6C SATURDAY QUICKLY
FALLING TO -14C TO -16C SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH. THIS WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE TEENS
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR NRN MI THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE PCPN
TYPE EARLY SATURDAY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MID AND UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI THROUGH
ARND 15Z SATURDAY WHILE LOW LVLS REMAIN SATURATED BELOW THE
-10C ISOTHERM. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR INCREASING
BTWN 15Z AND 18Z SAT...THE RESULT OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC)
SWEEPING OVR THE NRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FCST
TREND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARND 12Z SAT TRENDING TO LIGHT SNOW BY THE
AFTER AS MID LVL MSTR INCREASES. WILL MENTION SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS ON SUNDAY...AS THE PLAINS CLIPPER
PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. 850/500MB QVECTORS AND MSTR PROGS
SHOW THE DEEPEST LIFT AND GREATEST MSTR ON SUNDAY...TO BE LOCATED
OVER THE SRN CWA BETWEEN THE SAGINAW BAY AND MANISTEE. LIFT AND MSTR
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ALONG THE SRN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
STRAITS. A DRY AND COLD FORECAST CONTINUES OVER NRN MI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AND RECOVERING FROM COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME MODERATING INTO MIDWEEK. A WEAK FEATURE
DROPS THROUGH THE LAKES TUESDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 0C PRECEDING
PASSAGE. THIS COULD MAKE FOR SOME P-TYPE ISSUES AS PRECIP
STARTS...BUT WILL KEEP AS SNOW BEING THIS FAR OUT. THE RUG IS PULLED
OUT FROM UNDER THE MERCURY ON FRIDAY AS -24C 850MB AIR DESCENDS TO
ENGULF SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY AND MOVES SOUTH FROM THERE. LES
POTENTIAL NOT LOOKING GOOD POST THURSDAY FROPA...GOOD COLD AIR BUT
NO SUPPORT IN THE WIND FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LLWS CONDITIONS AT PLN/TVC/APN
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR LAYER LOOKING TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET AGL. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL EASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STRETCHED OUT CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY SAG
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PLN WILL SEE THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH
VSBYS LIKELY REDUCED TO UNDER 2SM FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL DIMINISHES/ENDS THIS EVENING BUT WITH
LINGERING FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

WINDS...GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY VEERING NORTHWEST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...KEYSOR