364
FXUS63 KAPX 090529
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
129 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms Wednesday, mainly across the
southeast CWA. Primary concern is locally heavy rainfall.

- Rain-free weather through the second half of the week before
  our next main chances return heading into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Height falls will continue to spread over the Great Lakes into
tonight as shortwave troughing becomes centered over the region into
Wednesday. Associated forcing aloft will help drive weak, somewhat
disorganized surface pressure falls across the Great Lakes tonight
into Wednesday with little existing baroclinicity and weak
advections to work with.

Forecast Details:

Light showers tracking towards northern Michigan have largely
dissipated over the last few hours, leaving expected rain-free
weather in place for most areas through the evening. A few showers
will still be possible across the eastern U.P./Tip of the Mitt and
south of M-72 this evening and tonight. While model guidance widely
varies, current confidence still aligns with the previous forecaster
in the best chances for scattered showers and storms coming
Wednesday late morning through the afternoon -- primarily along and
southeast of a line from Houghton Lake to Presque Isle. While the
environment isn`t quite as impressive as a few days ago, PWATs in
the 1.25" to 1.5" range will support efficient rainfall with any
storms that form near Saginaw Bay -- potentially leading to
localized torrential rainfall and rainfall totals of 1-2" in brief
periods of time. With recent rainfall across this area, some
hydrologic impacts cannot be completely ruled out. That said, many
areas of the CWA are expected to stay dry through most of the day
Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details:

Troughing will finally depart to the east Wednesday night into
Thursday as ridging progresses over the region through the end of
the week. Subsidence provided at the ridge/trough inflection point
will build surface high pressure across the region. This will keep
rain-free weather in place through Friday night, along with warming
temps as highs reach into the mid to upper 80s for most on Friday.
Our next main rain chances return Saturday and Sunday as multiple
waves look to pivot across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes,
bringing the potential for rounds of showers and storms at times
through the weekend. Highs in the low to mid 80s are currently
anticipated for most areas through the weekend, with the potential
for slightly warmer temperatures to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Patchy BR/FG tonight, most likely MBL. TEMPOs remain as a result
with IFR and lower possible. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions
anticipated through Wednesday. Only exception will be across
northeast lower, and thus VCSH/VCTS possible at APN during the
midday to afternoon time frame. Quiet conditions otherwise, with
CIGs generally SCT-BKN050-100 (exception being where FG
develops). Winds northwest for most, easterly near lake huron
due to the lake breeze.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JLD