Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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548
FXUS63 KAPX 251431
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1031 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

A soggy morning continues, particularly across n central lower
and far eastern upper MI. This is the outer edge of the precip
shield associated with low pressure in w central OH, moving ne.
Precip has diminished in coverage somewhat over the past 1-2
hours, getting lighter if not ending at places like TVC/CAD/HTL.
However, an additional wave of light rain is moving onshore from
APN/Rogers, and some showers are still seen over Lake Huron.
Meanwhile, there are some places starting the day with at least a
little bit of sunshine (western Chip/Mack, immediate nw lower MI
coastline). Not many, but some.

Not expecting a lot of changes thru the day today. Light rain,
with a few embedded showers, will continue to wrap back into ne/n
central lower and eastern upper MI. Some terrain-induced
enhancement will be seen over n central lower, while precip
coverage will gradually fall off as you move west into nw lower MI
and west of I-75 in eastern upper.

Will lower max temps somewhat along the M-37 and M-66 corridors in
nw lower, as well as along/east of I-75 in eastern upper.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...One more day of showers...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Pesky closed upper low continues to
slowly move through the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys this morning...
associated surface low is centered over western Ohio with a
trailing front arcing down through the SE states. Strongest QG-
forcing for ascent and bulk of precip has shifted into the
Appalachians/mid Atlantic coast along and ahead of the front.
Meanwhile, mid level deformation axis stretches through Lake
Huron and across portions of lower Michigan with several bands of
showers pivoting northwestward through the region. The most
persistent showers thus far have been across parts of NE lower
Michigan and down through Saginaw Bay.

Primary Forecast Concerns...minimal. Shower chances and timing
through tonight.

Closed upper level low finally expected to advance eastward to the
Atlantic coast through this evening and into New England by Friday
morning. Associated mid level deformation axis/QG-forcing for
ascent will pivot through the region and weaken in time, with
showers gradually diminishing/ending by Friday morning. But we
area still facing several more hours of showers today and into
tonight with the best chances/coverage anticipated across NE lower
Michigan. Temperatures, still on the cooler side with highs in
the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...Warming temperatures...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern forecast: Upper level low pressure that`s plagued northern
Michigan over the past several days will continue to slowly depart
off to our east early today into tonight with mid-level ridging
briefly becoming centered overhead by midday Friday. A couple of
weak shortwaves are expected to ripple through the Great Lakes
during the Friday-Saturday timeframe preventing the forecast from
including completely dry conditions. However, with limited moisture
and rather weak forcing associated with each ripple in the flow,
scattered showers should be few and far between with many locations
staying dry to start the upcoming holiday weekend.

Primary forecast challenges/concerns: Low end shower chances and
increasing temperatures.

As was mentioned earlier, despite weak mid-level ridging becoming
centered overhead during the day Friday, several subtle pieces of
energy are expected to race across the area. This may provide enough
support to kick off a few sprinkles or light showers, but will
continue to keep the forecast predominantly dry as the majority of
northern Michigan is expected to stay rain-free with partly sunny
skies, light winds, and high temperatures 5 to as much as 15 degrees
warmer than Thursday.

A rather similar story is on tap for Saturday, despite ridging
moving off to the east and being replaced by weak troughing
associated with upper level low pressure that`s progged to be
spinning across western Ontario/Manitoba. A weak wave or two
pinwheeling around the southern periphery of that system may once
again be enough to kick off a stray sprinkle or light shower
locally, but another partly sunny and even warmer day is anticipated
for most. High temps on Saturday climbing to several degrees above
normal...ranging from the upper 60s across eastern upper to the mid-
70s for northern Lower (cooler along the immediate lakeshores, of
course).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

High impact weather potential: Chance of thunderstorms Monday.

Despite not much in the way of high impact weather potential, aside
from a low end chance of a few thunderstorms Monday, the extended
period could feature another stretch of unsettled weather. Upper
level low off to our northwest this weekend, gradually sinks south
and east across the Great Lakes by early next week. This should
allow for sporadic rain chances perhaps as early as Sunday, but more
so Monday through the end of the forecast period. Near-normal high
temperatures Sunday and Monday gradually fall to several degrees
below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Tricky TAF forecast today. CIGS have been very slow to lower
overnight although there is some low (IFR) cloud cover that
appears to be pushing into NE lower Michigan off Lake Huron into
the APN area. Otherwise...still anticipate CIGS to lower across
northern lower Michigan through the course of the day to at least
MVFR and possible IFR at times...as periodic showers continue to
impact the region.

Showers diminish tonight but MVFR CIGS/VSBYS linger.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Northeasterly winds with gusts up to 20 knots anticipated on the
lakes today, shy of small craft advisory conditions. Winds
diminish tonight and remain on the lighter side heading into the
weekend.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...TBA



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