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000
FXUS63 KAPX 240136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUNSHINE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
(DEWPOINT AT THE HEAT OF THE DAY) WERE IN THE LOWER 50S AND THE
PREDICTED LOWS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FOG ALGORITHM WOULD
INDICATE PATCHY DENSE FOG. SO WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

...CLEARING AND COOL...

LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUD COVER AND COOL CONDITIONS HAVE ONCE
AGAIN BEEN THE NAME OF THE GAME...WHERE SOME OF THE LOWEST
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS ARE RIGHT HERE IN NRN
MICHIGAN. BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NOW DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...HELPING TO THIN OUT THE STUBBORN STCU DECK.

TONIGHT...LARGE COMPONENT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES CERTAINLY HAS A DAYTIME HEATING COMPONENT AND WILL THIN OUT
THIS EVENING. SO...STILL EXPECT A N-S CLEARING TREND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR. ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER CHILLY
JULY NIGHT. JUST HOW FAR TEMPS WILL DROP IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC
HOWEVER. CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED MIXING HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CWA. LATE DAY SUN/MIXING MAY
DROP THOSE READINGS INTO THE 40S. BUT REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURE
FALL WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 40S. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL BE ONE OR TWO OF THOSE REAL COLD INLAND SPOTS (GRAYLING/MIO
ETC) THAT MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 30S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW.  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER PATTERN BECOMING
INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS GULF OF ALASKA LOW
DEVELOPS AND RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  THIS HELPS
BRING ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL/DEEP TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  MOST OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ON BOARD WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE DETAILS.  MOST OF
THESE DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE PATTERN TRANSITION PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...POSSIBLY ASSISTED BY THE
KNOWN TELECONNECTION BETWEEN WESTERN PACIFIC NORTHEAST CURVING
TYPHOONS /MATMO/ AND COLD AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE 1021MB SFC HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES /ALTHOUGH STILL A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL/ WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.  DEVELOPING WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF SLOWLY EXITING SFC HIGH ON FRIDAY MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

ALL GOOD THINGS MUST END...AND OUR STRETCH OF GREAT WEATHER WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WEATHER CHANGE WILL BRING DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WELL.
IT CERTAINLY APPEARS AS IF THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER WAVE DROPS INTO
DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS.
THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK IS SATURDAY AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH AN
INITIAL SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/CONVECTION TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.  GIVEN LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEKEND...NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. DESPITE THIS... I CAN/T DENY THE
INCREASING PWAT/S AND LFQ KINEMATICS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE. I THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H8 WARM FRONT...BUT
PLENTY ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS THAT I CAN/T JUSTIFY
REMOVING POPS.  SO WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY.
WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN WAVE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY COOL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.  THIS POINTS TOWARD MORE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.  SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THANKS
TO ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STEADIER RAINS EARLY MONDAY
THANKS TO DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS, AND THE SKY
CLEARS. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT FOG BY EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER,
HAVEN`T ADDED IT IN YET. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AND REMAIN N/NW UNDER
10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. REMAINING SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH THE 5 PM FORECAST ISSUANCE.

WINDS BACK MORE SW ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE A BIT. BUT WINDS/WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...ADAM