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000
FXUS63 KAPX 210217
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1017 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

A STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEK. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES...
ALONG WITH SEVERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF SUN AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY HAS LED TO
FOG FORMATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOG IS
DENSE IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST
TRENDS ON THIS ONE TO SEE IF THE FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA IS MOVING UP ACROSS ILLINOIS. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED FROM NEAR
CHARLEVOIX TO JUST NORTH OF OSCODA. THEREFORE...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST AS
ANOTHER THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS IN AND COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. AT THIS POINT AM NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS AS
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...THOUGH IT CAN NOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE DATA SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE ACTION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO
THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

OVERVIEW: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A BROAD CLOSED
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. STRONG
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW NOW PRESSING UP
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ACTING ON DECENT INSTABILITY AXIS
STRETCHED UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (MLCAPE VALUES RUNNING
UPWARD OF 1500 J/KG)...PRODUCING A THIN CORRIDOR OF STORMS ADVANCING
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...BUT OVERALL EVENT IS A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING...SO FAR.

TONIGHT...LINE OF STORMS LOOKING TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING WITH A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE/NO PRECIP BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENING. WINDS WEAKEN...AND WITH THE
AFTERNOON RAINFALL...A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING.

THEN...FORECAST A BIT MORE NEBULOUS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NRN PLAINS TODAY SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE SFC FRONT REMAINING STRETCHED OUT INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. STILL A DECENT SIGNAL THAT WE SEE RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF LIKELY
POPS ADVANCING WEST-EAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...BETTER SEVERE THREAT ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM KINEMATICS ARE GREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH IF THERE IS LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING/S CONVECTION...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE VERY
MINIMAL...HINDERING ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A COOL DOWN ONCE
THIS SLOW MOVING AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING PATCHY FOG
WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS...WILL THE SUN BREAK OUT OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S CONVECTION? THE INGREDIENTS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CERTAINLY THERE WITH SFC DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...GOOD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...0-6KM BULK SHEAR 50-60 KTS...GOOD JET
DYNAMICS AND MLCAPE 1100 J/KG WITH VERY MINIMAL MLCINH. WITH THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AT A 45 DEGREE ANGLE TO THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED BOUNDARY LAYER DRAPED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE CELLULAR AT FIRST AND CHANGE TO
LINEAR WITH TIME. WITH -10 TO -30C CAPE OF 500-600 J/KG AND LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP. OF COURSE LOCATION WILL PROBABLY CHANGE BY
TOMORROW...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW OUR SOUTHERN CWA SEEMS TO BE THE
FAVORED AREA TOMORROW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GONE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
TAPPED INTO GULF MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1.00 INCH AND
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE...EXPECT ANY RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
MICHIGAN...PRODUCING RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN CANADA BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FROST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOMEWHAT
WARMER. LEFT INHERITED FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW EAST OF ALL TAF
SITES. NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY DISSECTS THE TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PLN AND APN IN
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH FOG POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT TVC AND MBL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FELT ON THE LAKES INTO THE EVENING WITH A
FEW GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. BUT WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...BA