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000
FXUS63 KAPX 041808
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
108 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A
FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING...AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR
MIDWEEK...SUPPLYING CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT SOME SUNSHINE
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON
FRIDAY...YIELDING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BEFORE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE FLAREUP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FORTHCOMING WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST OF AN INCH OR
TWO AT MOST OF ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT REALLY
TOUGH TO GET AN IDEA OF WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER/LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE GOING TO BE. BELIEVE THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO
TRANSIENT FGEN AND/OR CHAOTIC ARRIVALS OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA.
STILL NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...FEELING IS FOR NO MORE THAN
AN INCH AND A HALF AT WORST ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 (ROUGHLY WHERE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE). IT IS IN FACT SNOWING LIGHTLY ACROSS
MUCH/MOST OF EASTERN UPPER SO INCREASED POPS THERE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

...LIGHT SNOWS MAINLY NRN LOWER TODAY AND A QUIET TONIGHT...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL...SLIPPERY ROADS IN NRN LOWER THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH FOR SNOW SPREADING ACROSS MOST ALL OF NRN
LOWER...LESS CONFIDENCE IN EASTERN UPPER.

CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION:

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RACING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
ELONGATED CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA ALSO IS DELIVERING A
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. THE SFC PATTERN IS QUITE
ILL-DEFINED. ONE SFC TROUGH IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN CANADA BACK
ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GULF IS
BLOCKED OFF FROM MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER -DIVQ AND DEVELOPING WEAK FGEN
SIGNALS WERE ALLOWING FOR THE INITIAL SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS A BIT AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS REGION
TODAY...DRAGGING THAT ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO GET A BIT BETTER ACROSS NRN LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT PASSES.

WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

LIGHT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH A LITTLE
MORE RIGOR AT TIMES DUE TO THE FGEN...AND FOCUSED MORE SO AROUND GTV
BAY DOWN TOWARD THE SAG BAY DUE TO BETTER FGEN SIGNALS. MOST ALL OF
THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SNOW THIS MORNING...BUT THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW LOOKS TO ONLY GRAZE EASTERN UPPER WITH A FEW TENTHS. AN INCH
OR POSSIBLY TWO WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32. SNOWFALL ADDED IN PART BY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REMNANT MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS PRETTY MUCH DONE
BY MID DAY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE AT SUNDOWN. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A QUIET NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES AROUND THE
LAKESHORES IN LIGHT COLD LOW LEVEL FLOW.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

FOR THIS RENDITION OF THE DISCUSSION...I BELIEVE A LITTLE GOOD NEWS
IS IN ORDER. THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FEATURE OVERALL RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES
EVEN HEADED UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL WHILE QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE IS FORESEEN. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT NO BIG WARMUPS ARE IN
STORE EITHER...AND IN TYPICAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN FASHION (ESPECIALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR)...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE OCCASIONAL BOUT
OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW...ONLY ADDING TO THE TREMENDOUS PILES OF SNOW
ALREADY ON THE GROUND. STILL...IT COULD BE WORSE...AND THE BASIC
PATTERN IS IN FLUX...WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/RIDGING BACKING
UP WESTWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS AND ULTIMATELY BERING SEA THROUGH
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BOUTS OF DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THAT SAME PATTERN
MAY ULTIMATELY BRING ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS IN THE FORM OF ALLOWING
STRONGER PACIFIC FLOW TO INCREASINGLY DOMINATE THE LOWER 48 TOWARD
THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS BEYOND...THOUGH THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY
WARMER AIR GETS THIS FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE SEEN. INSTEAD...OUR
FOCUS WILL BE ON A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST PERIOD IN QUESTION REMAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKING FROM
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. HAVE SAID THIS A COUPLE OF TIMES
ALREADY...BUT THIS IS JUST A WINTERTIME VERSION OF THE HUDSON BAY
HIGH SETUP WE SEE OFTEN IN THE SPRING...WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS TENDING
TO STRENGTHEN THE HIGH TOWARD AN IMPRESSIVE 1040MB BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A DEVELOPING EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SUB-800MB FLOW
HELPING DRAG SOME TREMENDOUSLY DRY AIR DOWN THIS WAY IN TIME.
EARLIER GUIDANCE RUNS REALLY WANTED WAFFLED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE BUT ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...SUGGESTING
AN AXIS OF SUB-0.03" (YES...BONE DRY!) PWATS WILL BE PUNTED INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CURRENT DEPICTIONS OF H8 DEW POINTS AROUND
-45C JUST DOWNRIGHT SILLY. AS SUCH...AND GIVEN THE SETUP...CONTINUE
TO BELIEVE THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS THAT DRY
AIR WEDGE AND LAKE HURON ICE COVER WORK IN TANDEM TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE CLOUDINESS...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS TOWARD THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY BE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT IN
SPOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WITH SUCH A STRONG HIGH...THE
GRADIENT DOWN THIS WAY DOES LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR WIDESPREAD
DECOUPLING IN ALL AREAS.

STARING TO SEE SOME BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SOMETIME FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE
MODELED TO WORK NORTH OF HERE...DECENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND A PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL PROBABLY GO INTO
THE PRODUCTION OF A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW. ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT MAYBE AN INCH IN
SPOTS FROM THIS FEATURE.

THEREAFTER...LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN WORKS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES...WITH ANOTHER
IMPRESSIVELY DRY SURGE OF AIR EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SOMETIME TOWARD
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS BETTER WARM ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR
ALOFT...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A TOUCH OF SNOW JUST GRAZING NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THIS SETUP LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY (MINUS
SOME NEEDED SUNSHINE) WILL BE CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPS...THOUGH IT
WOULD APPEAR READINGS SHOULD AT LEAST BE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
BALLPARK OF NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...PROBABLY WARMING THROUGH THE
20S (THAT WILL FEEL LIKE A HEAT WAVE AFTER THIS WINTER). HOWEVER...
NIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEATURE SOME COLD READINGS GIVEN THE DRY
AIR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...WITH SOME MORE SUB-ZERO LOWS CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. COULD SEE ANOTHER FRONT MAKE ITS APPROACH
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAYBE A LOW END CHANCE FOR A LITTLE
MORE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT`S WAY OUT THERE AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

...MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TAKE THE SNOW
WITH IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT APN. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TURNING LIGHT NORTHWEST THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR VFR
CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...AS