Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210142
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
942 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Cold front pushing steadily east across the area this evening,
looking to push off into Lake Huron in the next couple hours. Band
of mostly light showers tied to this front, with the atmosphere
now well worked over from earlier convection that has pushed into
Ontario and Lake Huron. Passage of this front will not end the
rain threat, however, as deep moisture to our west wraps back in
overnight. Early season lake response will only help the cause as
increasingly gusty west to northwest winds drop h8 temperatures to
the upper single digits by morning...setting up low to mid teens
delta t/s over the big waters. Light showers will be the result,
especially targeting those traditional lake effect areas.

Other story will be those increasing winds over the waters and
shoreline areas of Lake Superior and Michigan. All marine
headlines will remain, and per coordination with MQT, have added a
wind advisory for Chippewa County very late tonight into Sunday
morning. Main area of concern will be those shoreline areas up
near Whitefish Point where wind gusts may approach 45 mph at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

High impact weather potential: Lingering thunderstorm activity into
this evening.  Gusty winds developing later tonight into Sunday -
gales on parts of the Great Lakes.

Deepening surface low over Wisconsin will track north into Lake
Superior tonight, dragging a strong cold front through the area.
Convection (at least scattered) will be ongoing through early
evening in still moist/unstable airmass in advance of the front.
Fropa will put an end to the more widespread precipitation (at least
initially) before the lake processes begin with the cold air.
Behind the front, gusty winds and strong cold advection will usher
in +8C 850 MB air, which given the very warm lake temps (> +22C)
will lead to lake induced rain showers across NW lower Michigan,
along with a nice batch of deformation (wrap around) showers
slipping through upper Michigan.

Lake enhanced rain showers continue downwind of Lake Superior and
Lake Michigan Sunday morning, as deeper deformation moisture and
residual forcing work across the area. Activity will be most
numerous in favored w/nw flow areas.   Things will wind down during
the afternoon as moisture diminishes and upper heights begin to
rebound.  Temperatures remaining in the 60s for most areas, with
gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph.  It will definitely feel like an
early fall day across northern Michigan.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Weather Impacts:  None.

Synoptic pattern:  Mid level trough over the northeastern quadrant
of the Conus (including the Great Lakes) will gradually give way to
zonal flow aloft by Monday and Tuesday.  Then, as high pressure
ridge initially across the region moves east, winds will turn SW and
WAA will commence. The next mid level trough will then swing across
the northern Plains and move into the western Great Lakes by
Wednesday and Thursday.

Sunday Night:  Improving conditions expected as ridge of high
pressure initially over Upper Mississippi Valley moves east into the
Great Lakes region.  However, with respectable 850 mb thermal trough
(+6-8C), warm water temps (+22-23C), and remaining low level
moisture, expect abundant lake enhanced clouds early with some
partial clearing during the night. A few spotty light showers may
linger early. Dew points will steadily lower during the night as
low temps fall in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Monday and Monday Night:  As high slips off to the east, winds will
become SW and strengthen.  WAA will push 850 mb temps up to near
+14C by late Monday, and to around +17C by early Tuesday morning.
Models suggest some mid level WAA clouds will push through the area,
with perhaps some spotty showers by late Monday night - especially
across far northern areas.  Rain chances appear small. Highs Monday
will reach the 70s, with lows Monday Night in the 50s to around 60.

Tuesday:  Surface high over the mid Atlantic states will continue to
support strong SW flow at low levels across the Great Lakes, and 850
mb temps will hover around +20C by late in the day, helping to boost
500 mb heights to near 588 dm (with weak ridging aloft).  Highs will
reach 80 to 85 under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Much less active pattern than we have had as we go into the extended
period. Mid-week temperatures look to run slightly above normal,
with a late week disturbance that will bring the primary chance for
rain and cooler temperatures behind it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 802 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Cold front tied to unseasonably strong low pressure will finish
crossing the area this evening, ending the widespread shower and
thunderstorm threat in the process. Gusty west to northwest winds
will follow this front for later tonight and Sunday. Abundant low
level moisture, augmented by an early season lake response, will
bring mvfr cigs to all areas overnight into at least the first
half of Sunday. Light showers are also expected, particularly
across western taf locations.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016

An early shot of fall for northern Michigan to end the weekend as a
strong cold front sweeps across the area.  Southwest winds will
shift to the west/northwest behind the front and increase in
magnitude tonight. Because of this, there are widespread gales
and small craft headlines across the Great Lakes into the day on
Sunday.

Lighter winds for Monday, but winds will ramp up again heading
toward midweek as a another storm system approaches the area. This
may result in additional marine headlines.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT through Sunday afternoon for MIZ020-025-
     031.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT through Sunday afternoon for MIZ016-019.

     WIND ADVISORY from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ008.

LH...GALE WARNING from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ346>349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ345.

LM...GALE WARNING until noon EDT Sunday for LMZ323-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ322.

     GALE WARNING from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...Keysor
LONG TERM...BBS
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...Keysor



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