Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280714
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS.  BEHIND THIS FRONT...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ONE LAST PRISTINE DAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: NONE EXPECTED...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORTHCOMING WHICH IS UNFORTUNATE IF YOU
HAVE ENJOYED THE LAST FEW DAYS (HOW COULD YOU NOT?). THE LARGE AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRUDGINGLY EDGE OFF TO OUR EAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY. LUCKILY
FOR US THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLOW ONE SO TODAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN FEEL INCREDIBLE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
70S. THERE WILL BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT OVERALL SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL
BEGIN TO PRESS DOWN TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER VERY LATE TONIGHT. NOT QUITE
AS COOL TONIGHT...BUT STILL COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY FOG ONCE
AGAIN...WHICH COULD EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...CHANGEABLE WEEK IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. SOME THUNDER THREAT ON
FRIDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/FORECAST: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE
CONUS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS STILL INTACT...BUT WITH SIGNS OF
BREAKING DOWN AS WESTERN TROUGH IS NOW BEGINNING TO CUTOFF FROM THE
STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS PACIFIC ENERGY IS ABLE
TO RIDE OVER THE DEVELOPING CUTOFF.  THIS WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE OVER
OUR AREA FOR A TIME BEFORE ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ARRIVES ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND SERVES AS A KICKER FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
CUTOFF...THAT WILL RIDE EAST AND RE-BUILD HEIGHTS AHEAD OF ITS
ARRIVAL.  LONGER TERM PATTERN TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THROUGH THIS WEEK...SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA TO END THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...BRINGING US BACK TO THE PATTERN THAT PRECEDED THIS
BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER.

PATTERN IMPLICATIONS: A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE AS
INITIAL DAMPENING OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING OUR WARM SPELL TO AN
ABRUPT END BEFORE QUICK MODERATION IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RETURN TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO COME WITH EACH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THE FIRST ON MONDAY...AND
THE SECOND TO END THE WEEK /WITH CHANCES PERHAPS LINGERING AS THE
LAKES MAY GET INVOLVED BY NEXT WEEKEND/.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE: EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
ON THE LONGWAVE DETAILS...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BY
THE TIME WE REACH THE SECOND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE/ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.  SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THIS ARGUES THAT A CONSENSUS WILL SERVE AS A GOOD
STARTING POINT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

MIDDLE RANGE /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/:

GUIDANCE HAVE ALL TRENDED NICELY TO YESTERDAY/S ECMWF TREND OF A
SHARPER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CARVING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
ON MONDAY WITH A ROBUST...BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS MOVING ABOVE 10C AND PWATS NEARING
1.5".  QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS IS ROBUST ALTHOUGH
BEST UPPER JET FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN
DURING THE DAY /EASTERN UPPER DURING THE MORNING...SPREADING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON/...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BOOST POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.  BIG TEMPERATURE
DISPARITY AS MY FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT 70
AGAIN GIVEN T9 OVER +15C WITH A LITTLE EARLY MORNING SUN POSSIBLE.
NORTH OF THE STRAITS...WHERE THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE EASTERN U.P. WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO ONE TENTH OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...AND UNDER A TENTH
OVER NORTHWEST LOWER.

AS SHARPENING WAVE CLOSES OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY... MOIST AND
COOL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE.  WHILE THE FLOW
IS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY THAN SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE 24 HOURS
AGO...BUFKIT PROFILES FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A PRETTY
CLASSIC DRIZZLE SIGNATURE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BENEATH AN IMPRESSIVE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  THUS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
/PARTICULARLY OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER/.  THIS WILL KEEP A LID
ON TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW 60 AND GUIDANCE
INDICATIONS THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S.  MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY THIN TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE IMPROVEMENT PROCESS WILL BE SLOW AND WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTHERN LOWER /DRIER AIR WILL HAVE ARRIVED
FURTHER NORTH/ FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH ONLY MODEST DROPS IN TEMPS
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S.

SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT DOES LOOK TO FINALLY ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN CRESTS OVERHEAD AND MOVES EAST
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND BRING T8S BACK TO AROUND 10C
AHEAD OF NORTHWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.  VERTICAL MIXING WILL REMAIN AS MORE
ROBUST VERTICAL MIXING HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE
NEARBY RIDGING...BUT T9S IN THE LOWER TEENS SUGGEST THAT WE/LL MAKE
A RUN AT 70 OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
OVER EASTERN UPPER.


LONG RANGE /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/:

KICKER TROUGH ABSORBS EJECTING CUTOFF AND CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ECMWF/GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GGEM SUGGESTING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ARRIVING
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  HEALTHY DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE IN PLAY...AND WHILE
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...AGREE WITH INHERITED LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.  THUNDER CHANCES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH GOOD GULF MOISTURE TAP AND POTENTIALLY STRONG DYNAMICS IN
PLAY...BUT A LOT HAS TO COME TOGETHER FOR THUNDER TO BE REALIZED
/LOW OCCURRENCE AND TRACK...TIMING/ WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.  CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON...WITH CERTAINLY BETTER CHANCES OF AN APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

MUST BE CAUTIOUS WITH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHEN
PRECIPITATION CAN TAKE A SEEMINGLY WARM AIRMASS ALOFT AND YIELD
NOTHING OF THE SORT AT THE GROUND.  THURSDAY CERTAINLY HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF BEING VERY MILD AS T8S RISE BACK TO AROUND 12C...BUT
WITH RAIN/CLOUDINESS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING LATE WITH AT LEAST
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP HIGHS CLOSE TO 70.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...THERE IS A WELL-AGREED UPON TRANSITION
TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WE REACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SATURDAY WITH PATTERN ANALOGS MATCHING EXTENDED MOS TEMPERATURES
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH BOTH POINT TO HIGHS FALLING TO NEAR 10F
BELOW NORMAL /AT LEAST/ WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
EXPECTED T8S NEAR 0C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT MBL/PLN/APN WITH VARYING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
RATHER DRY AIRMASS. GROUND FOG WILL FORM AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL
SITES BUT TVC...WITH IFR OCCURRING SOMEWHAT INFREQUENTLY. SOME
CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT OUTSIDE OF FOG WE WILL BE
COMFORTABLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS. WEAK LAKE BREEZES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.  THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
VEERING SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

HEADLINES: ONLY THREAT OF HEADLINES WILL BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE
MICHIGAN.  BEYOND THIS...THE NEXT POSSIBLE PERIOD OF HEADLINES WILL
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS: NO THREAT THROUGH THROUGH THE MARINE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ARNOTT





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