Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
658 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Warmer with abundant sunshine today...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Sprawling surface high under steadily
building mid level heights has resulted in a quiet and star-filled
night across the north woods. Temperatures have responded
accordingly to the above and rapidly decreasing winds, with some of
the typical ice box locations dipping into the upper 20s at this
early hour.

High pressure will slowly pivot across the area today into this
evening. Mid level wave racing southeast on south side of winter-
like cold core gyre rotating north of Hudson bay will drop a
moisture limited cold front into our area later tonight.

Primary forecast concerns: Temperature and relative humidity trends
today. Addressing some light shower potential late tonight across
upper Michigan.

Details: Sun-filled skies expected today as high pressure dominates.
This sun will really do a number on temperatures, with a rapid
diurnal response expected to kick in this morning. High temperatures
today look to reach well into the 50s, with even some areas of
interior northern lower making a run at 60. Deep dry air through the
column and increased mixing through the day will really scour any
low level moisture. Afternoon dewpoints likely to dip into the teens
across at least portions of northern lower, with resultant relative
humidity values easily falling below critical levels away from the
big waters. Light winds and well below critical level temperatures
will preclude any real fire weather concerns, although will
definitely highlight the low rh in our latest fire weather products.

While Clear skies are expected to continue for areas south of the
big bridge tonight, clouds are expected to increase late across
eastern upper as that earlier talked about cold front drops
overhead. Associated moisture channel is narrow and limited, and
best mid level support remains detached to the north. Not great
ingredients for efficient rain production at all. Still, definitely
cannot rule out a few light showers impacting areas up near
Whitefish Bay toward sunrise Sunday. Another seasonably chilly
night, with some areas of northern lower once again making a run
into the upper 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Quiet for the most part...

High pressure gets squeezed off to the south allowing for a cold
front to drop down from the north Sunday. However, models are only
in fair agreement on just how far south this front will make it
which will have a big impact on highs Sunday. There is model
agreement that the front lifts back north as a warm front Sunday
night. Upper level heights rebuild on Monday out ahead of another
system due in late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not a lot of moisture
shown with the front so will still only carry low chance pops across
eastern upper for rain showers Sunday night with much of northern
lower likely remaining rain free. There could even be a few wet snow
flakes that mix in as well in eastern upper. It`s a tricky
temperature forecast for Sunday with a large temperature gradient
likely. Could see highs of well into the 60s well south while
eastern upper struggles through the 40s. Highs Monday ranging from
around 50 north to the middle 60s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...April showers bring May flowers...

Low pressure moves by to our northwest Tuesday night likely
producing showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Another area of low pressure then moves into northern
Michigan Wednesday likely leading to additional rain showers. Models
are now singing a different tune for Thursday as a chunk of very
chilly air is shown to dive down from the northwest into northern
Michigan. The model blend keeps Thursday dry but if models are
trending correctly we will definitely see instability driven showers
(maybe even some snow). Will have to monitor later runs for possible
changes to the forecast. A warm front and yet another area of low
pressure brings more shower chances Friday. Don`t have a high
confidence level for later in the week at this point. Fairly warm
Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s to around 70. It could
be cooler Wednesday depending upon the timing of a cold front then
it will likely turn much cooler Thursday before temperatures
possibly moderate next Friday. It looks like we may be in for a wild
ride weather wise later next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions through the period under mostly clear skies. Light
north winds this morning, with local lake breeze development
expected this afternoon.


Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Light north flow this morning will give way to local lake
breeze development during the afternoon. Light southwest winds
tonight become northwest and increase in speed some on Sunday as a
cold front drops south across the big waters. Winds look to remain
below advisory level. Some small craft advisories may be needed on
Monday as winds become southeast and increase in speed.




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