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428
FXUS63 KAPX 190348
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Cold front making steady east progress across central Wisconsin,
with nothing more than a band of mid and upper level clouds out
ahead of it. And, that should remain the case through the
overnight as the front passes, with simply no appreciable
moisture for the front to act upon (local 00z sounding bone-dry
through the column). Very gusty pre-frontal southwest winds
continue, especially near and over northern Lake Michigan. These
winds should relax some as they veer more westerly as the cold
front passes.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Gusty winds through this evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong surface ridge axis extends from
Quebec along the Atlantic Coast this afternoon. Strong area of low
pressure remains centered over Central Manitoba...with a trailing
cold front thru the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains
states. Michigan is in between these two systems within a tightening
low level pressure gradient...resulting in increasingly gusty S/SW
winds across our region. Temps have warmed well into the 60s to near
70 degrees across our CWA this afternoon thanks to strengthening WAA
via this S/SW low level flow ahead of the upstream cold front.

Winds will continue to strengthen as we head into early evening...
with the strongest winds likely over Eastern Upper Michigan and
along all of our Lake Michigan shoreline areas. Expect winds will
occasionally gust to 30 to 40 mph within these areas...but should
remain just below wind advisory criteria. Cold front will reach our
NW CWA by around midnight or so...and should clear our CWA by around
sunrise. The front will come thru dry due to lack of sufficient
moisture for precip production. In fact...expect only a brief
increase in mid/high clouds right along the front. Winds will shift
around to the west in the wake of the front and will diminish as the
low level pressure gradient loosens. Overnight lows will cool mainly
into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Thursday will be mainly sunny with
weaker winds a CAA begins behind the front. Temps will be cooler in
comparison to today...but will still be several degrees above
normal. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s in Eastern
Upper Michigan to the mid 60s in our SE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Mild to wrap up the week...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Rising heights aloft across the midsection of the
country Thursday night will lead to well above normal temps to wrap
up the work week into the start of the weekend as impressive late
season 580+ Dm ridging becomes centered overhead Friday afternoon-
Friday night. Attendant surface high pressure anchored over the
TN/OH Valleys is expected to nose into Michigan aiding to yield
continued precipitation-free weather with abundant dry low-mid level
air before a cold front and increased precip chances arrive Saturday
night-Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Somewhat breezy conditions
both Friday and Saturday afternoon.

Mainly clear skies and diminishing winds Thursday night will lead to
efficient radiational cooling with lows dropping into the mid-upper
30s inland to the mid 40s near the big lakes. Heights rise aloft
Thursday night through Friday with well above normal temperatures
expected to prevail through at least Saturday. High temps both
Friday and Saturday ranging from mid-upper 60s across eastern upper
to the upper 60s-low 70s south of the bridge...some ~15 degrees
above normal.

A bit of afternoon gustiness is expected Friday and to a greater
extent on Saturday as southwesterly flow ramps up ahead of an
approaching system set to arrive Saturday night into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A cold front attendant to low pressure moving through Hudson Bay
will move through the region early in the week, ushering out the
ridging that has been in place. This will bring the next chance of
precipitation and a cooler airmass. This could bring a few flakes of
snow in colder areas of eastern upper and interior northern lower.
The magnitude of the cold airmass is still a little questionable,
and the temperatures are on the marginal side, so it could come in a
touch warmer and keep the precipitation all liquid. We will keep an
eye on how the handling of the cold air aloft evolves in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Cold front crossing the taf locations tonight, bringing nothing
more than a band of mid and high level clouds along with it. Gusty
southwest winds and off-the-deck wind shear to continue before
frontal passage, with winds lowering some as they become more
westerly after frontal passage. Clear skies are expected again
today. Next round of low level wind shear is possible later this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A moisture-starved cold front will sweep thru Northern Michigan
tonight. Winds and waves will continue to reach gale warning and SCA
criteria ahead of this front thru this evening. Winds will diminish
a bit overnight in the wake of the cold front...but will still reach
SCA criteria for all of our nearshore areas thru much of Thursday.
Only a brief increase in mid/high clouds can be expected with the
passage of this front. Dry wx will continue thru the remainder of
the workweek.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MR