Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 162302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
702 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...Warming trend begins Monday...

High impact weather potential...None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast...Another unseasonably cool mid-July day
across the north woods as deep layer north flow is maintained within
overhead trough axis. Cool readings driven in large part by
extensive stratus deck that was covering much of the area this
morning and early afternoon. Drying from the north is aggressive
however, with skies steadily clearing from north to south across the
center of the Mitt.

Large scale pattern set to go through some significant changes over
the next few days as strong trough rotates off the Pacific. This
will do a number on the northern extent of current western ridge,
plowing it east into the northern Great Lakes later Monday and
Monday night. Surface response will be as one would expect as this
occurs, with high pressure building south into the region and
temperatures warming in the process.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges...Cloud trends tonight.
Temperature trends tonight and Monday.

Details...High pressure and low level dry air will continue to build
south into the region tonight. North/south clearing trend established
this afternoon should continue into this evening. However, as H9-H8
layer flow veers more easterly with time, there are hints that this
may bring a shallow layer of deeper moisture back into the region
overnight, especially across northeast lower Michigan. Will trend
partially toward this idea for now, but would not be terribly
surprised to see more clouds than currently anticipated (sure hope
not as there could be a decent Northern Lights show tonight).
Another cool night, with lows by sunrise Monday ranging from the
upper 40s to middle 50s.

High pressure builds directly overhead Monday as its mid level
likeness does the same by late in the day. Enough lingering low
level moisture to drum up some late morning/afternoon high based and
shallow cu, but still expect skies to be mostly to partly sunny.
This sun will really help modify the airmass and increase mixing
depth (as it should in July), allowing afternoon temperatures to
make a run into the mid and upper 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Low. Chance for some thunderstorms
Tuesday evening and again Wednesday afternoon/evening. Better
support for stronger storms Wednesday afternoon, but not a sure

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface high pressure and H5 ridging
folding into the region will be displaced through the day Tuesday as
a cold front sweeps through the region. The surface reflection of a
low amplitude shortwave moving across the northern Plains will move
through the Great Lakes behind this cold front Wednesday before high
pressure once again builds into the area.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Temperatures, and humidity, should start
to increase Tuesday as the surface high moves to our east and flow
turns south/southwesterly. The increase in warmth and moisture will
bring enough instability to mention thunderstorms as the passing
cold front helps to provide some lift. Better shear will remain
upstream, but some guidance is bringing in 35-40kt bulk shear by
Wednesday afternoon. It looks as though the better shear will arrive
after the main threat of showers is through, and we could be sitting
under a region of convergence aloft as the nose of a jet core moves
overhead. I wouldn`t put the chances of an isolated severe storm at
zero just yet, but there is a lot that needs to come together as we
move towards Wednesday and it currently doesn`t look as though it

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The H5 pattern shows generally zonal flow through the extended
period.  Both the GFS and Euro show a couple shots of energy moving
through the flow during this 4 day stretch...though they disagree on
the timing.  Moisture supply isn`t overly while
we`ll likely see a couple shots and some shower/thunderstorm
activity, I think that`ll be the exception and dry conditions will
be the rule. Temperatures will be running right along with climo.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions have largely returned to northern lower Michigan...
save for some MVFR cloud cover still hanging around the TVC/MBL
areas. Skies will clear winds go light this high
pressure settles over northern Michigan. There may be some patchy
fog and brief VSBY reductions at the usual fog prone terminal
sites...but not expected to get to out of hand. Thus...I have not
put any fog in the TAF forecasts at this point.

VFR for Monday. SCT afternoon CU will bubble up and winds will
remain on the lighter side...with afternoon lake breeze winds


Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Gusty north winds this afternoon veer more northeast overnight,
decreasing in speed in the process. High pressure brings light
winds Monday, with lake breezes expected to develop during the
afternoon hours. Winds remain light Monday night before becoming
southwest and increasing in speed on Tuesday.


LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ344>346.


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