Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 251401
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE RADAR
RETURNS, SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, IN BANDS, ACROSS NW AND NC
LOWER. REDUCED THE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE CURRENT TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, HAS ROTATED
OUT OF E UPPER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMALIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMALIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO
KICK OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS/DRIZZLE TO
MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
OUT OF THE NW INTO TONIGHT...WHILE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FILL IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR
MOST ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY OVC SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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